DraftKings Week 3 Recap

Quick Summary

  • Hishboo won with 275.7 points
    • He max entered 150 lineups
    • No Barkley in any
      • Not a lot of people felt like paying up for him ~5% did
    • Stacks RB with DST more than most
  • 163.36 to cash
  • Best possible lineup 321.54 points
  • 2018 Week 17 Milly Maker winner Giantsquid does well
    • He paid up for McCaffrey and filled in the rest with majority cheaper QB’s
    • Player pool focused player and not constraints driven (he still stacks though)
  • Ending goes less risky but still TE heavy
    • Treated Burkhead and Carson almost the same as Giantsquid

Hishboo Wins with 275.5 Points

hisboo Wins with 275.7 Points

Congrats to Hishboo! Here’s his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
Jameis Winston 22 Austin Ekeler 57 Nelson Agholor 59 Mark Andrews 47 Chargers 47
Carson Wentz 17 Chris Carson 55 Keenan Allen 48 Zach Ertz 28 Steelers 21
Matt Ryan 13 Christian McCaffrey 49 Emmanuel Sanders 35 Greg Olsen 26 Panthers 18
Kirk Cousins 13 Le’Veon Bell 27 Julio Jones 33 George Kittle 19 Saints 7
Kyle Allen 9 Phillip Lindsay 25 Mike Evans 24 Evan Engram 6 Bengals 6
Philip Rivers 5 Rex Burkhead 16 DeAndre Hopkins 16 Darren Waller 4 Patriots 1
Deshaun Watson 5 Dalvin Cook 7 Michael Thomas 15 O.J. Howard 3 Buccaneers 1
Lamar Jackson 5 Alvin Kamara 5 Davante Adams 13 Austin Hooper 3
Russell Wilson 3 Aaron Jones 5 Tyler Lockett 11 Travis Kelce 1
Dak Prescott 3 David Johnson 1 Adam Thielen 10
Aaron Rodgers 2 Julian Edelman 9
Matthew Stafford 1 Stefon Diggs 7
Mason Rudolph 1 Marquise Brown 5
Tom Brady 1 Kenny Golladay 5
Chris Godwin 4
Curtis Samuel 3
DJ Moore 3
Calvin Ridley 3
Randall Cobb 3
T.Y. Hilton 1
Phillip Dorsett II 1
Mohamed Sanu 1
DK Metcalf 1
Amari Cooper 1
Will Fuller V 1
Mack Hollins 1
Sammy Watkins 1
Tyrell Williams 1
Jamison Crowder 1
Preston Williams 1
JuJu Smith-Schuster 1

Even though Agholor had a dominant week last week Hishboo was OK playing him again in week 3. That wasn’t the play but it didn’t matter thanks to him not locking him.

It’s really not all that sexy of a lineup but analyzing the rest of his lineups gives me faith he knows what he’s doing. Hishboo won with Winston and didn’t play Barkley or Daniel Jones in any lineups — practically no game stacks. That’s insane to me but damn did that Barkley injury help.

Also, great pick with Phillip Lindsay. That’s one I’m still reeling about not having in any of my lineups. And of course Darren Waller — quite the game.

Stacking: RB-DST

One thing I noticed is that he stacks his running back with their defense a lot. This is not the most common stack but IMO an underused goodie. He had Ekeler-Chargers in 39% of his lineups and McCaffrey-Panthers in 16%. Not huge stacks by any means but they are there and he won the Milly Maker with one.

He also stacks his QB with a WR/TE almost all the time.

  • Winston-Evans in 21% (Winston was 22% usage by him overall)
  • Allen-Olsen in all Allen lineups
  • Wentz-Agholor-Ertz Triple stack in all Wentz lineups

Summary

Great job overall by Hishboo. His strategy/knowledge of constraints seems more sound than many past winners of the Milly Maker. I think he might do well in the future.

Best Possible Lineup: 321.54 Points

Best Possible Lineup 321.54

I’m a little surprised McCaffrey isn’t up here. Kamara is god-tier it seems. He’s been in the most optimal lineups since 2018. And Russell Wilson-Tyler Lockett ended up being a far superior play to Chris Carson.

Player Spotlight

Player Number of Lineups Paid Won win/entry
chipotleaddict 150 3000 1630.0 0.543333
chess_is_ok 150 3000 1020.0 0.340000
Al_Smizzle 150 3000 320.0 0.106667
Nickelback4Lyfe 150 3000 0.0 0.000000
scout326 150 3000 -40.0 -0.013333
Mushtaqlatifi 13 260 -10.0 -0.038462
Bearsfan247 50 1000 -100.0 -0.100000
rcrumpto 36 720 -80.0 -0.111111
petrgibbons 150 3000 -405.0 -0.135000
Awesemo 150 3000 -430.0 -0.143333
papagates 150 3000 -1055.0 -0.351667
7bushes 52 1040 -390.0 -0.375000
JeffElJefe 150 3000 -1380.0 -0.460000
mallen21 150 3000 -1620.0 -0.540000
bales 21 420 -235.0 -0.559524
ending 150 3000 -1715.0 -0.571667
davematt123 31 620 -400.0 -0.645161
topcorner 56 1120 -760.0 -0.678571
Slaytations 131 2620 -1915.0 -0.730916
csuram88 10 200 -170.0 -0.850000
saahilsud 0 0 0.0
tommyg1979 0 0 0.0

Past 2019 winners upped their entries but did not profit. I wonder why mushtaqlatifi stopped at 13, my guess is he really studies every lineup he enters and may just do it manually.

Out of the max entry players chess_is_ok had another strong performance but I’m actually going to look at a new player this week, giantsquid. He’s a max entry player that won week 17 last year.

Analyzing Giantsquid’s Lineups

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
Kyler Murray 27 Christian McCaffrey 65 Larry Fitzgerald 39 Zach Ertz 36 Cardinals 23
Kyle Allen 19 Rex Burkhead 45 Sammy Watkins 31 Travis Kelce 22 Patriots 13
Jameis Winston 18 Chris Carson 42 Julian Edelman 29 George Kittle 19 Chiefs 13
Matt Ryan 14 Le’Veon Bell 37 Keenan Allen 28 Greg Olsen 14 Chargers 13
Dak Prescott 8 Austin Ekeler 33 Nelson Agholor 25 Darren Waller 9 49ers 11
Carson Wentz 7 David Johnson 29 Emmanuel Sanders 25 O.J. Howard 1 Cowboys 11
Daniel Jones 3 Frank Gore 13 Christian Kirk 23 Austin Hooper 1 Panthers 9
Patrick Mahomes 2 Ezekiel Elliott 13 Sterling Shepard 21 Saints 5
Philip Rivers 1 Saquon Barkley 2 Julio Jones 16 Vikings 3
Phillip Lindsay 1 Calvin Ridley 16
Damiere Byrd 15
Mike Evans 13
Breshad Perriman 11
Curtis Samuel 10
Devin Smith 8
Phillip Dorsett II 4
TJ Jones 3
Randall Cobb 1

Lots of risky QB love here. And he felt confident in Matt Ryan enough to play him in 14 lineups. At Matty Ice’s salary I guess that makes sense compared to Dak but I sure as hell missed

And I’m a little surprised by how much Le’Veon Bell he went for but maybe that was part of a contrarian Patriots D won’t do well play.

Out of the Chiefs WR’s he just took Watkins. Frankly Giantsquid has a very small player pool compared to most max entry people. He is in the 50’s where lots of other people are 80+. He profited $8,025 and won the Week 17 Milly Maker last year so who knows, maybe he’s on to something. I think it’s hard for some to stomach leaving so many options off the board.

Giantsquid’s Stacks

Looking at stacks: Giantsquid did Kyler Murray-David Johnson in 26% of his lineups! That’s just about every Kyler Murray lineup. And he combined those two with Larry Fitzgerald in 24%! I’m even more surprised to Murray-Johnson-Fitzgerald and the Cardinals D in 17%. Frankly I think that’s a terrible idea.

Personal Development Category (English)468x60

Giantsquid must not do much with optimizer’s constraints but spends a lot of time on the player pool. It paid off this week and in the Week 17 Milly Maker.

Ending TE Focused Again but Less Risky in Week 3

Everything you do should be dependent on the slate, games, and other options. In Week 3 ending took a much less risky approach than maxing Mark Andrews and the Cardinals-Ravens game. But he still took risk with a TE-centric approach.

Here’s his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
Mason Rudolph 41 Rex Burkhead 44 Julio Jones 53 George Kittle 92 Panthers 21
Jimmy Garoppolo 23 Chris Carson 40 JuJu Smith-Schuster 49 Darren Waller 15 Patriots 21
Tom Brady 13 Austin Ekeler 25 Davante Adams 38 Mark Andrews 14 Cardinals 11
Matt Ryan 9 David Johnson 20 Michael Thomas 21 Zach Ertz 11 Chargers 10
Jacoby Brissett 4 Aaron Jones 11 Keenan Allen 19 Evan Engram 7 Bengals 8
Lamar Jackson 4 Darwin Thompson 11 Julian Edelman 19 Travis Kelce 6 Packers 5
Daniel Jones 3 Darrel Williams 10 T.Y. Hilton 17 Austin Hooper 3 Buccaneers 4
Philip Rivers 1 Christian McCaffrey 9 Josh Gordon 17 Jack Doyle 3 Vikings 4
Deshaun Watson 1 Marlon Mack 7 Will Fuller V 9 Greg Olsen 2 Lions 3
Phillip Lindsay 7 Nelson Agholor 6 O.J. Howard 1 Bills 3
Le’Veon Bell 7 Tyrell Williams 6 Vance McDonald 1 Chiefs 3
Devonta Freeman 6 Randall Cobb 5 49ers 2
Saquon Barkley 5 Mike Evans 5 Saints 1
Miles Sanders 5 Sterling Shepard 5 Steelers 1
Frank Gore 5 Adam Thielen 5 Colts 1
Alvin Kamara 4 Phillip Dorsett II 5 Cowboys 1
Duke Johnson 3 Emmanuel Sanders 5
Sony Michel 3 Deebo Samuel 4
Peyton Barber 2 Calvin Ridley 4
James Conner 2 Tyler Lockett 3
Kerryon Johnson 1 Sammy Watkins 3
Matt Breida 1 Mike Williams 3
Mack Hollins 2
Larry Fitzgerald 2
DK Metcalf 2
Kenny Golladay 2
Mohamed Sanu 1
Stefon Diggs 1
Tyler Boyd 1
Preston Williams 1
Marquise Brown 1
Curtis Samuel 1
Christian Kirk 1

Opting for Burkhead and the mid-priced Carson allowed him to afford his pricier WR’s and TE’s. Unfortunately he took his chance with Mason Rudolph instead of doing a Daniel Jones-Engram at 97% or a Kyle Allen-Greg Olsen.

Ending certainly takes more risk than most but these last 2 weeks it’s looks like the slates matched up well to a TE centric approach. We’ll see how his strategy adapts as the slates do or if this is now a cornerstone of his strategy.

Another interesting note is that I didn’t find any “splits” by ending in which you take one player or the other player never both (Would have worked well handling the Royce Freeman-Lindsay dilemma last week). I thought JuJu and Julio Jones would kinda be one but nope. He probably does not view high priced players or WR1’s in terms of “tiers” to fill out with options. I.e. 1 high priced WR, 2 mid-range, and 2 low-priced risky guys.

Pro vs Herd

The Herd

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
giantsquid 8025.0 150 53.500000
gosixersgo76 4220.0 150 28.133333
chipotleaddict 1630.0 150 10.866667
moklovin 785.0 150 5.233333
str8_cash_homies 755.0 150 5.033333
wakeywakey 695.0 150 4.633333
teejayortj 580.0 150 3.866667
goudsaab -1110.0 150 -7.400000
nilknarf -1175.0 150 -7.833333
jayk123x -1230.0 150 -8.200000
dinkpiece -1635.0 150 -10.900000
i_slewfoot_u -3000.0 150 -20.000000

dinkpiece… now that’s a name. Overall not a lot of big losses on this list. ChipotleAddict won money but not big time and only one guy below $2k.

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
hishboo 1003340.0 150 6688.933333
brorannosaurus_flex 149465.0 150 996.433333
petteytheft89 102625.0 150 684.166667
bhannahs1 49940.0 5 9988.000000
irione 30060.0 2 15030.000000
adrocksbuckswinitall 19700.0 20 985.000000
golions85 16625.0 150 110.833333
cewrazen -2480.0 150 -16.533333
hailmary7777 -2570.0 150 -17.133333
vinsanityai3 -2610.0 150 -17.400000
thefantasybros -2760.0 150 -18.400000
booboobohannon -2900.0 150 -19.333333

No max entry blanks this week by the herd!

Point Totals Compared

index Points_other Points_rg_top_50
count 246044.00 3796.00
mean 143.11 153.96
std 28.27 27.00
min 14.60 59.80
25% 122.86 135.44
50% 141.32 151.89
75% 161.74 171.52
max 275.70 258.30

The pro’s did much better on average this week. Boosted by some smart Elliott and Golladay avoidance.

Player Pools Compared

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Ezekiel Elliott 18 35 -17.0
Patriots 18 33 -15.0
Dalvin Cook 11 23 -12.0
Marquise Brown 5 16 -11.0
Kenny Golladay <5% 13 -10.0
Nelson Agholor 24 33 -9.0
John Brown 6 13 -7.0
Dak Prescott 10 17 -7.0
Chris Godwin <5% 10 -7.0
Lamar Jackson <5% 9 -6.0
Mark Andrews 13 18 -5.0
Josh Allen <5% 8 -5.0
Devonta Freeman <5% 8 -5.0
John Ross III <5% 8 -5.0
Devin Smith <5% 7 -4.0
Sony Michel <5% 7 -4.0
Demarcus Robinson <5% 6 -3.0
Saquon Barkley 5 8 -3.0
Calvin Ridley 5 8 -3.0
Josh Gordon 5 7 -2.0
Frank Gore 10 12 -2.0
Mike Evans 8 10 -2.0
Jason Witten <5% 5 -2.0
T.J. Hockenson <5% 5 -2.0
Amari Cooper 7 9 -2.0
Mark Ingram II <5% 5 -2.0
O.J. Howard <5% 5 -2.0
Adam Thielen <5% 5 -2.0
Cowboys 11 13 -2.0
Aaron Jones 5 6 -1.0
Vikings 5 6 -1.0
Patrick Mahomes 7 8 -1.0
Darren Waller 5 5 0.0
Emmanuel Sanders 13 13 0.0
Greg Olsen 8 7 1.0
49ers 8 7 1.0
Cardinals 5 <5% 2.0
Carson Wentz 5 <5% 2.0
Davante Adams 5 <5% 2.0
Phillip Dorsett II 8 6 2.0
Will Fuller V 5 <5% 2.0
Kyle Allen 9 7 2.0
Sammy Watkins 12 10 2.0
Austin Hooper 6 <5% 3.0
T.Y. Hilton 6 <5% 3.0
Panthers 6 <5% 3.0
Randall Cobb 9 6 3.0
Jameis Winston 9 6 3.0
Evan Engram 13 10 3.0
Bengals 6 <5% 3.0
Curtis Samuel 7 <5% 4.0
Matt Ryan 7 <5% 4.0
David Johnson 14 9 5.0
Chargers 8 <5% 5.0
Phillip Lindsay 8 <5% 5.0
Travis Kelce 12 7 5.0
DeAndre Hopkins 12 7 5.0
Julio Jones 16 10 6.0
Damiere Byrd 9 <5% 6.0
George Kittle 18 12 6.0
Christian Kirk 13 7 6.0
Kyler Murray 12 6 6.0
Austin Ekeler 31 24 7.0
Larry Fitzgerald 26 18 8.0
Le’Veon Bell 11 <5% 8.0
Julian Edelman 17 8 9.0
Rex Burkhead 18 9 9.0
Zach Ertz 24 15 9.0
Christian McCaffrey 35 21 14.0
Keenan Allen 32 14 18.0
Chris Carson 38 20 18.0

Big difference with Chris Carson. A sharp football play but I also think a people go overboard when a starting QB gets hurt. Bridgewater ain’t bad and has a good cast. Also, New Orleans had a top 3 run D last year (they would have been first by averages if not for week 17 when they played backups) and the Seahawks aren’t as good as they used to be.

Pro’s always seem to love Zach Ertz.

I’m a little surprised by all the Rex Burkhead love.

I joined the herd with some big whiffs: Ezekiel Elliott and Kenny Golladay. I’m shocked the pro’s played Golladay so little. <5%! Maybe I believe in the Eagles pass D woes a little bit too much.

Misc

Thanks for reading. Feel free to leave any comments, suggestions, or corrections.

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

4 Responses

  1. W says:

    Great read as always but LOL at calling BroFlex and Pettey “herd”. They are pros, especially pettey

  2. John says:

    I love this blog and I am very grateful how early you posted it this week. My struggle is finding the right mix of tournaments and entries on a more constrained budget.

    Keep up the great work ( jvm52106 on Dk’s )

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