DraftKings Week 2 Recap

Quick Summary

  • Mushtaqlatifi won with 231.12 points
    • He entered 3 lineups
    • This was the first time he ever made any money in the Milly Maker!
    • Gameflow driven strategy
  • Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT
    • Demarcus Robinson was little used but ended up being quite the pick.
  • Injuries hurt
    • Brees, Johnson, and James Conner hurt some pro lineups.
  • 150.26 to cash
  • Best possible lineup 282.32 points
    • Patriot’s D anyone?

Mushtaqlatifi wins with 231.12 points

mushtaqlatifi 231.12 Week 2 2019 Milly Maker Winner

Mushtaqlatifi wins the Milly Maker! Here’s his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
Patrick Mahomes 33 Derrick Henry 100 John Brown 66 Evan Engram 66 Patriots 33
Drew Brees 33 Ezekiel Elliott 33 Emmanuel Sanders 33 Travis Kelce 33 Cowboys 33
Tom Brady 33 Chris Thompson 33 Demarcus Robinson 33 Ravens 33
LeSean McCoy 33 Preston Williams 33
Josh Jacobs 33 Michael Thomas 33
Adam Thielen 33
John Ross III 33
JuJu Smith-Schuster 33
Antonio Brown 33
Willie Snead IV 33
  • This is the first time he has ever profited playing in a Milly Maker too (data through last season).
  • Generally Mushtaqlatifi will play Patrick Mahomes with Tyreek Hill in just about every lineup he can and he has been doing thatsince Week 3 of last year.
  • He correctly picked Demarcus Robinson and Travis Kelce as the top 2 pass catchers this week with Hill’s absence
    • Great fade of Sammy Watkins!
  • Gameflow and probably a targets driven player
    • Preston Williams was another sharp pick that gameflow dictated to be decent even though he started the Patriots D too. Blowouts lead to some soft yardage late
    • Targets because of Emmanuel Sanders, Engram with Sterling Shepard out.

He took a big risk with Demarcus Robinson but it paid off. Quite the upside in Mahomes offense. Great job and best of luck.

We Salute You

Best Possible Lineup: 282.32 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Patrick Mahomes II QB 35.62 7500.0 KC
Aaron Jones RB 28.00 5400.0 GB
Dalvin Cook RB 31.10 7200.0 MIN
Kenny Golladay WR 28.70 6600.0 DET
Emmanuel Sanders WR 28.80 4700.0 DEN
Demarcus Robinson WR 38.20 3500.0 KC
Travis Kelce TE 26.70 7300.0 KC
Mark Andrews FLEX 28.20 3800.0 BAL
New England Patriots DST 37.00 3700.0 NE
282.32 49700.0

I bet you guessed it, the Patriots D makes an appearance. Now the question on all of our minds, will the Cowboys do it in Week 3?

Mushtaqlatifi got a remarkable number of correct picks. The trickiest being Demarcus Robinson.

Player Spotlight

JeffElJefe Bad Week in Milly, Great Week Overall

Last week JeffElJefe had a subscriber take home the Milly Maker. This week he appears to have won entry into the Fantasy Football World Championships.

Another great example of the log-cajones factor in which having a high bankroll leads to inflated results.

Kudos for a probable great win but to all you readers out there, be wary of the log-cajones factor. High entry limits lead to softer contests. Less rake (DK fee’s) and fewer entrants. This guy is touting a 192 point lineup as a great day in this slate. I mean it’s good but not great, 40 points away from the winner of the Milly Maker. Even I had 2 over 200 with just the early slate. Patriots D was a nice boost for all who had them.

Perhaps listen to his single entry small pool tourney advice though.

JeffElJefe Milly Maker Lineups

I ran out of time to crunch all of his lineups this week but do note that he does use different lineups for different contests. A sound strategy when the contest type is very different like it was for him, but debatable when they are similar. His screenshotted lineup above was not one of his Milly Maker lineups.

ending Goes Hard on Cardinals@Ravens Game

Wow. I’m glad I analyzed ending this week. If you haven’t heard of ending, he is a past Milly Maker winner, 2017 Week 12 Milly Maker, who generally max enters 150 lineups. He hasn’t had any huge wins in a while but has a pretty good ROI last season.

In seasons past ending seemed to top out around 40% player utilization but he knocked that out the window this week while predicting a Kyler Murray shootout game. Here’s his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
Lamar Jackson 97 Saquon Barkley 37 Larry Fitzgerald 57 Mark Andrews 100 Texans 25
Kyler Murray 3 James Conner 29 Michael Thomas 43 George Kittle 31 Patriots 13
Austin Ekeler 24 Christian Kirk 34 Darren Waller 11 Giants 13
Derrick Henry 22 DeAndre Hopkins 26 Evan Engram 7 Bengals 10
Damien Williams 19 Davante Adams 19 Travis Kelce 6 Broncos 10
Leonard Fournette 17 Robert Woods 15 T.J. Hockenson 5 Steelers 7
Chris Carson 12 Courtland Sutton 14 Delanie Walker 3 Colts 5
Dalvin Cook 10 KeeSean Johnson 10 49ers 4
Matt Breida 9 JuJu Smith-Schuster 10 Jaguars 3
Adrian Peterson 9 Emmanuel Sanders 9 Redskins 3
Devin Singletary 8 Brandin Cooks 9 Titans 3
Todd Gurley II 7 Tyrell Williams 9 Packers 2
Aaron Jones 5 DK Metcalf 7 Chiefs 1
Josh Jacobs 5 Cooper Kupp 7 Chargers 1
Phillip Lindsay 5 Adam Thielen 7 Lions 1
Duke Johnson 5 Allen Robinson II 7
David Johnson 5 Keenan Allen 5
Sony Michel 1 John Brown 3
LeSean McCoy 1 Julian Edelman 3
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Marvin Jones Jr. 3
Marlon Mack 1 Tyler Boyd 2
James White 1 Tyler Lockett 1
Rex Burkhead 1 John Ross III 1
Mark Ingram II 1 Terry McLaurin 1
T.Y. Hilton 1
Kenny Golladay 1

Look at that! 100% Mark Andrews! I rarely see successful max entry players “lock” players but I think they should more. And 97% Lamar Jackson is insane too.

Had James Conner not gotten hurt he probably wins the Milly Maker!

Based on that player pool it’s clear he liked that game stack this week. In past weeks he splits out his lineups across games much more. And notice how Mark Ingram clocked in at 1%, that was 1 lineup and he entered him with Kyler Murry so ending is probably against QB-RB pairings. No David Johnson with Murray either.

Ending probably thought Mahomes wouldn’t go off like he did with Demarcus Robinson.

Overall though, great week by ending, his top lineup finished with 223 points and he profited $10,765 on the week. He is very close to another Milly Maker, last year he was just 7 points away in Week 14.

Pro vs Herd

Rough Week for Most “Pros”

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
misterpost 9800.0 17 576.470588
luckypapa 50.0 4 12.500000
punisheresz -20.0 1 -20.000000
easton136 -20.0 1 -20.000000
durtyk -20.0 1 -20.000000
bigmac84 -30.0 3 -10.000000
brpunkrmax -30.0 3 -10.000000
papagates -2500.0 150 -16.666667
i_slewfoot_u -2610.0 150 -17.400000
goudsaab -2610.0 150 -17.400000
chipotleaddict -2620.0 150 -17.466667
fjbourne -2710.0 150 -18.066667

I’m quite surprised how bad chipotleaddict and papagates did. They do work together — which is allowed — so it makes sense they are correlated here. They both faded Mahomes and the Ravens Cardinals game.

Also, I always say it but don’t follow the RG Top 50 too closely. Ending and Nickelback4Lyfe should definitely be in there over quite a few other players. I might finally release my rankings in the next few weeks.

Programming Category (English)468x60

Herd Does Well

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
mushtaqlatifi 999940.0 3 333313.333333
ironhill 149940.0 3 49980.000000
mwp125 99960.0 2 49980.000000
bmd1757 50000.0 2 25000.000000
jpree 30000.0 3 10000.000000
robw0621 29960.0 2 14980.000000
balerion90 14425.0 150 96.166667
hayw4130 -3000.0 150 -20.000000
araven52 -3000.0 150 -20.000000
cant_stop_beastmode -3000.0 150 -20.000000
eritas2 -3000.0 150 -20.000000
creamqueen -3000.0 150 -20.000000

Quite a lot of max entry losers this week. Normally we only only have one or so.

I don’t really recognize these names much but if they start to do well consistently I’ll track them.

Pro v Herd Point Totals

index Points_herd Points_rg_top_50
count 259483.00 3922.00
mean 131.71 127.86
std 24.57 23.95
min 16.20 56.62
25% 114.56 111.24
50% 130.62 126.92
75% 147.92 143.66
max 231.12 225.78

The herd outpaced the pros by an average of 4 points. Not a large divide but enough to matter.

Pro v Herd Player Utilizations Compared

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Derrick Henry <5% 14 -11.0
Sammy Watkins 15 25 -10.0
Michael Gallup <5% 11 -8.0
John Brown 12 20 -8.0
Tom Brady <5% 11 -8.0
Dalvin Cook <5% 10 -7.0
Patriots 13 20 -7.0
John Ross III <5% 10 -7.0
Alvin Kamara 32 38 -6.0
Sony Michel <5% 9 -6.0
Lamar Jackson 5 10 -5.0
Ezekiel Elliott <5% 8 -5.0
Josh Gordon <5% 7 -4.0
Will Fuller V <5% 7 -4.0
Delanie Walker 6 9 -3.0
Mark Andrews 7 10 -3.0
Marquise Brown <5% 6 -3.0
Dak Prescott <5% 6 -3.0
Mecole Hardman <5% 6 -3.0
Broncos <5% 6 -3.0
Titans <5% 6 -3.0
T.J. Hockenson 15 17 -2.0
Antonio Brown <5% 5 -2.0
Mark Ingram II <5% 5 -2.0
DK Metcalf <5% 5 -2.0
Marlon Mack <5% 5 -2.0
Julian Edelman 6 8 -2.0
Bears <5% 5 -2.0
Derek Carr <5% 5 -2.0
Tyrell Williams 29 30 -1.0
Amari Cooper 7 8 -1.0
Josh Allen 9 10 -1.0
Austin Ekeler 37 37 0.0
Chris Thompson 8 7 1.0
DeAndre Hopkins 12 11 1.0
Matt Breida 6 5 1.0
Cooper Kupp 11 10 1.0
Saquon Barkley 18 16 2.0
Keenan Allen 15 13 2.0
Patrick Mahomes 14 12 2.0
Ted Ginn Jr. 5 <5% 2.0
Courtland Sutton 5 <5% 2.0
Todd Gurley II 5 <5% 2.0
Davante Adams 5 <5% 2.0
Tyler Boyd 5 <5% 2.0
Bengals 5 <5% 2.0
Ravens 9 7 2.0
Giants 6 <5% 3.0
Deshaun Watson 6 <5% 3.0
Cole Beasley 6 <5% 3.0
Steelers 6 <5% 3.0
James White 6 <5% 3.0
Damien Williams 7 <5% 4.0
Darren Waller 28 24 4.0
Brandin Cooks 11 7 4.0
Josh Jacobs 25 21 4.0
Larry Fitzgerald 9 5 4.0
Ben Roethlisberger 11 7 4.0
Christian Kirk 7 <5% 4.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster 23 18 5.0
Travis Kelce 21 16 5.0
Tyler Lockett 10 5 5.0
Adrian Peterson 8 <5% 5.0
Evan Engram 21 15 6.0
Devin Singletary 9 <5% 6.0
Texans 24 17 7.0
Robert Woods 14 6 8.0
Leonard Fournette 12 <5% 9.0
Jared Goff 15 6 9.0
George Kittle 13 <5% 10.0
Chris Carson 17 6 11.0
James Conner 18 6 12.0
Michael Thomas 24 12 12.0

In classic pro v herd tradition, the herd was willing to ride recent performances much more. As a blanket policy, fading is not always a good idea, certain players do “breakout” and consistently do well for a while as their salary climbs. The question for week 3 is if $7k for Lamar Jackson and $7.6k for Patrick Mahomes is too much.

And James Conner/Michael Thomas were probably great plays but it’s just unfortunate about the injuries (Bree’s thumb and Conner’s knee).

Another way to interpret above is that the pro’s and herd approach recency different. The “pro’s” were certainly hot on the Rams Saints game being a high scoring again but it just happened a while back, in the playoffs and that fateful 80 point Week 9 game (see recap here).

Misc

FantasyCruncher Twitter Gone Wild?

Whoever is in charge of the FantasyCruncher Twitter account went on a bit of a bender last Saturday night.

Bender

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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