DraftKings Week 15 Recap

Quick Summary

  • Mbonson wins with just 206.44 points
    • He entered 61 lineups
      • Over 75% of those cashed!
      • Top chalk didn’t win him the Milly but he still played Elliott, Barkley, and Fournette
        • Elliott was in 49% of his lineups
        • Exposure limits are a beautiful thing
    • Joe Mixon, Falcon’s D, and Kenny Golladay were his top 3 players at 88%, 51%, and 49% respectively
  • Derrick Henry’s breakout games are most reminiscent of Devonta Freeman
  • Matt Ryan was the top QB
    • Josh Allen was #2
  • 130.30 to cash
    • Very low scoring week
  • Best possible lineup 229.38 points

Mbonson Wins with Just 206.44 Points

Mbonson's Winning Lineup 206.44 Points

In Week 15 the Milly Maker was won by someone with 206 points! It was really a low scoring week for GPP’s. The best possible lineup was just 229.38 points, less than 14/15 of the Milly Maker winner’s lineups in 2018.

You may think that Mbonson won because he faded Elliott (shutout by the Colts), Barkley, and Fournette but that is not the case. Look at his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Tom Brady 36 RB Joe Mixon 88 WR Kenny Golladay 49 TE Kyle Rudolph 41 DST Falcons 51
QB Matt Ryan 15 RB Ezekiel Elliott 49 WR Julio Jones 46 TE Eric Ebron 24 DST Ravens 23
QB Andrew Luck 15 RB Tevin Coleman 31 WR Tyler Boyd 44 TE Rob Gronkowski 20 DST Bears 10
QB Aaron Rodgers 11 RB Marlon Mack 23 WR Sterling Shepard 36 TE Jared Cook 10 DST Patriots 5
QB Russell Wilson 6 RB Dalvin Cook 21 WR Julian Edelman 18 TE Vance McDonald 5 DST Jaguars 3
QB Mitchell Trubisky 5 RB Leonard Fournette 18 WR Taylor Gabriel 10 TE Mark Andrews 3 DST Vikings 3
QB Ben Roethlisberger 5 RB Saquon Barkley 16 WR Larry Fitzgerald 10 TE Marcedes Lewis 3 DST Titans 2
QB Josh Allen 3 RB Jaylen Samuels 15 WR Davante Adams 8 TE George Kittle 2 DST 49ers 2
QB Derek Carr 3 RB Jordan Howard 10 WR Randall Cobb 8 DST Lions 2
RB Doug Martin 6 WR Robert Foster 8
RB Aaron Jones 5 WR Michael Gallup 8
RB Tarik Cohen 3 WR Corey Davis 6
RB Derrick Henry 3 WR T.Y. Hilton 6
RB Jalen Richard 2 WR Tyler Lockett 6
WR Dede Westbrook 5
WR Mike Evans 3
WR Zach Pascal 3
WR Amari Cooper 3
WR Calvin Ridley 3
WR Dante Pettis 3
WR Donte Moncrief 3
WR Seth Roberts 3
WR Antonio Brown 2
WR Kenny Stills 2
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 2
WR Jordy Nelson 2

(61 total players)

He really nailed his top 3 players. Joe Mixon was a very solid pick- 41.6% utilization by all entrants in the Milly Maker. But really it was the Falcons D and Kenny Golladay that set him apart.

  • Kenny Golladay Mbonson Usage – 49% – All Entrants Usage – 4.91%
  • Atlanta Falcons Mbonson – 51% – All Entrants – 6.81%

I would guess he uses an optimizer with max exposure limits. Manually tuned player pool and possibly a minimum exposure limit too. His diversification at the WR position is impressive. Or it could be that his optimizer uses other metrics to promote this.

Using an optimizer with just max exposure and projected points typically leads to a little more imbalance than adding in player pool tuning. Note: creating your own projections and using a single dimensional optimizer is not a great way to win at DFS. Lineup construction is more important (and can be built into optimizers).

Mbonson Stacks

Stacking is a mixed bag with Mbonson. His highest Tom Brady stack was Brady-Gronk at 10% (he entered Brady in 36% of his lineups so this is a small percent of stacks with Brady).

Personal Development Category (English)468x60

But with Matt Ryan he always played Matt Ryan with Joe Mixon and Kyle Rudolph. Perhaps this was intentional but my guess is no given their utilizations. I would have expected to see Julio Jones with Matt Ryan, not Joe and Kyle.

C'mon Kyle

He also had 4 duplicate lineups or nine-stacks as I like to call them. Generally this is not a good strategy in GPP’s because of the risk you are trying to reduce by playing more lineups and how big the prize is. If he were to max enter and duplicate entries to get there that would make more sense to me. (I checked if the FLEX position was the issue but nope it looks like he entered duplicates).

Mbonson Season Long Earnings

Look at his earnings in the 2018 Milly Maker.

num_entries paid won
week_num
1 10.0 200.0 -15.0
2 11.0 220.0 -180.0
3 5.0 100.0 -70.0
4 48.0 480.0 -395.0
5 12.0 240.0 -100.0
6 6.0 60.0 -60.0
7 39.0 780.0 -390.0
8 10.0 200.0 -90.0
9 1.0 20.0 -20.0
10 10.0 200.0 -40.0
11 10.0 200.0 -130.0
12 6.0 120.0 -60.0
13 16.0 1600.0 -1350.0
14 14.0 280.0 -65.0
15 61.0 1220.0 1009395.0
Totals 259.0 5920.0 1006430.0

Week 15 was the only week he profited! I’ll have to do more analysis in the off-season to see if Mbonson is the ultimate contrarian player who was waiting for a week just like this one, or is a lucky player. My initial take on 5 minutes of research is… he is lucky.

Nice win. Don’t blow it on the Wildcat.

Best Possible Lineup: Only 229.38 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Matt Ryan QB 25.04 6100.0 ATL
Derrick Henry RB 33.24 5000.0 TEN
Joe Mixon RB 30.00 6100.0 CIN
Davante Adams WR 24.90 7900.0 GB
Robert Foster WR 23.80 4300.0 BUF
Kenny Golladay WR 24.60 5400.0 DET
Evan Engram TE 15.50 4100.0 NYG
Dalvin Cook FLEX 32.30 6500.0 MIN
Atlanta Falcons DST 20.00 2700.0 ATL
229.38 48100.0

The best possible lineup features 8 of the players from Mbonson’s player pool (Evan Engram is the exception). Look at the player pool percentages below (this is the utilization percent of players used in lineups that would have won the Milly Maker in Week 15, and selected from a pruned player pool that guarantees the max possible lineup is a member of the set).

Name Percentage team_name position opp_name salary Points
Derrick Henry 0.885 TEN RB NYG 5000.0 33.24
Matt Ryan 0.672 ATL QB ARI 6100.0 25.04
Dalvin Cook 0.571 MIN RB MIA 6500.0 32.30
Kenny Golladay 0.518 DET WR BUF 5400.0 24.60
Robert Foster 0.494 BUF WR DET 4300.0 23.80
Davante Adams 0.478 GB WR CHI 7900.0 24.90
Doug Baldwin 0.466 SEA WR SF 5300.0 23.70
Atlanta Falcons 0.454 ATL DST ARI 2700.0 20.00
Marlon Mack 0.419 IND RB DAL 4500.0 29.90
Chris Carson 0.388 SEA RB SF 5600.0 29.80
Joe Mixon 0.386 CIN RB OAK 6100.0 30.00
Indianapolis Colts 0.378 IND DST DAL 2600.0 19.00
Evan Engram 0.331 NYG TE TEN 4100.0 15.50
Garrett Celek 0.289 SF TE SEA 2500.0 14.10
Josh Allen 0.240 BUF QB DET 5800.0 19.76
Julio Jones 0.235 ATL WR ARI 8400.0 20.20
Trey Burton 0.235 CHI TE GB 3700.0 13.60
Mike Evans 0.221 TB WR BAL 6700.0 19.10
Jeremy Sprinkle 0.145 WAS TE JAC 2500.0 10.90
Washington Redskins 0.132 WAS DST JAC 2400.0 14.00
Tevin Coleman 0.131 ATL RB ARI 4200.0 23.50
Julian Edelman 0.113 NE WR PIT 7200.0 16.00
Chris Hogan 0.111 NE WR PIT 3300.0 14.80
Jordy Nelson 0.105 OAK WR CIN 4200.0 14.80
Kalen Ballage 0.103 MIA RB MIN 3000.0 22.10
Josh Johnson 0.077 WAS QB JAC 4300.0 14.94
Aldrick Robinson 0.061 MIN WR MIA 3200.0 12.40
Justin Hardy 0.052 ATL WR ARI 3000.0 11.90
Jamaal Williams 0.051 GB RB CHI 3500.0 19.70
Isaiah McKenzie 0.046 BUF WR DET 3900.0 11.70
Gus Edwards 0.043 BAL RB TB 4400.0 19.40
Willie Snead 0.037 BAL WR TB 3900.0 10.80
San Francisco 49ers 0.036 SF DST SEA 2000.0 9.00
Trent Sherfield 0.035 ARI WR ATL 3400.0 10.50
James Washington 0.027 PIT WR NE 3100.0 9.50
Peyton Barber 0.023 TB RB BAL 3400.0 16.90
Mike Glennon 0.011 ARI QB ATL 4200.0 8.44

Chris Carson was a little more under the radar than Joe Mixon but actually outplayed him slightly (taking into account salary). Carson was used in just 11% of all entrants lineups compared to Mixon’s 41%. Granted Carson has a much higher downside risk than Mixon.

Derrick Henry has a repeat week, although his insane 4 TD performance was on a Thursday night. Look at how some other players have done after having a breakout game below

Player's With Big Breakouts

Devonta Freeman looks the most similar to me but to say Derrick Henry is now going to play like Devonta Freeman is a bit of a stretch. 40 games to hit this mark after only max scoring 21 points on Fan Duel before that is insane. Most players show you how good they are by their second season. Especially if they’ve gotten a decent amount of reps.

Player Spotlight

Player Number of Lineups Paid Won win/entry
bassinmatt 1 20 20.0 1.000000
chipotleaddict 150 3000 2625.0 0.875000
papagates 150 3000 2390.0 0.796667
scout326 150 3000 -775.0 -0.258333
Bearsfan247 27 540 -140.0 -0.259259
Awesemo 150 3000 -830.0 -0.276667
bales 7 140 -60.0 -0.428571
Al_Smizzle 150 3000 -1770.0 -0.590000
mallen21 150 3000 -1940.0 -0.646667
petrgibbons 6 120 -80.0 -0.666667
Nickelback4Lyfe 150 3000 -2095.0 -0.698333
rcrumpto 17 340 -250.0 -0.735294
Slaytations 112 2240 -1650.0 -0.736607
davematt123 18 360 -270.0 -0.750000
ending 150 3000 -2255.0 -0.751667
chess_is_ok 150 3000 -2370.0 -0.790000
csuram88 3 60 -60.0 -1.000000
saahilsud 0 0 0.0 NaN
tommyg1979 0 0 0.0 NaN

SaahilSud disappears again (150 lineups last week) and no big winners.

Past Milly Maker Winners

Week Winner Player Number of Lineups Paid Won
1 Chalk 1 20 -20.0
2 JEREMYHEIN 146 2920 -2340.0
3 TheHodgesFactor 4 80 -80.0
4 Nickelback4Lyfe 150 3000 -2095.0
5 Slaytations 112 2240 -1650.0
6 davematt123 18 360 -270.0
7 bassinmatt 1 20 20.0
8 LolololoLola 15 300 -210.0
9 jab76r 0 0 0.0
10 BearDown247 13 260 -130.0
11 BillyVonElds 2 40 -10.0
12 Pajamadaddy17 2 40 10.0
13 adamlegbert 1 20 -20.0
14 crk3250 9 180 -100.0

crk3250 doesn’t let the fame get to their head. Jab76r didn’t play and everyone else is entering a similar amount to what they normally do.

Pro vs Herd

The Herd

Here is the section where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 with everyone else (their rankings are heavily skewed to high volume players but it’s the best we have… for now).

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
7bushes 37220.0 150 248.133333
chipotleaddict 2625.0 150 17.500000
papagates 2390.0 150 15.933333
jayk123x 1300.0 150 8.666667
petteytheft89 350.0 150 2.333333
totoroll33 205.0 20 10.250000
wakeywakey 125.0 150 0.833333
rikkidee -2060.0 150 -13.733333
brandonadams -2150.0 150 -14.333333
giantsquid -2215.0 150 -14.766667
chess_is_ok -2370.0 150 -15.800000
bdholla89 -2440.0 150 -16.266667

7bushes looks to be a new player to the Rotogrinder’s Top 50. I’ll keep my eye on him. For now here’s his winnings by week in the Milly Maker

num_entries paid won
week_num
1 150.0 3000.0 -2850.0
2 150.0 3000.0 -1650.0
3 150.0 3000.0 -2130.0
4 150.0 1500.0 -180.0
5 150.0 3000.0 -1150.0
6 150.0 1500.0 -915.0
7 150.0 3000.0 -1150.0
8 30.0 600.0 -470.0
9 60.0 1200.0 110.0
10 40.0 800.0 -580.0
11 50.0 1000.0 -350.0
12 60.0 1200.0 -990.0
13 80.0 8000.0 -4000.0
14 150.0 3000.0 -445.0
15 150.0 3000.0 37220.0
Totals 1670.0 36800.0 20470.0

Some deliberate bankroll management there. He looks to have climbed out of a gutter in Week 8.

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
mbonson 1009395.0 61 16547.459016
porterdennis 99980.0 1 99980.000000
hoopties30 39980.0 1 39980.000000
great5430 24980.0 1 24980.000000
kstruck 14980.0 1 14980.000000
hillman_degoh1 9990.0 2 4995.000000
yonnyd 6980.0 1 6980.000000
markcpro -2750.0 150 -18.333333
wpalango -2770.0 150 -18.466667
nemostars22 -2780.0 150 -18.533333
froggy000 -2890.0 150 -19.266667
hailmary7777 -2970.0 150 -19.800000

hailmary7777 had a very rough week and takes the cake as the worst day in the Milly Maker. But remember, Ending, owns the record for losing all $15K of his entries in Week 13.

Pro vs Herd Point Totals

index Points_other Points_rg_top_50
count 161340.000000 3707.000000
mean 114.616621 120.297589
std 21.132591 21.271981
min 40.420000 56.340000
25% 100.040000 105.560000
50% 114.600000 120.600000
75% 129.140000 134.590000
max 206.440000 192.960000

On average the RG Top 50 wins but the herd takes top prize. This is what you’d expect to happen, with maybe a little larger standard deviation for the RG top 50.

Pro vs Herd Player Pool Utilization

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Rob Gronkowski 14 26 -12.0
Jared Cook 7 18 -11.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster 14 24 -10.0
Amari Cooper 6 15 -9.0
Julian Edelman 11 20 -9.0
Derrick Henry <5% 11 -8.0
Tarik Cohen <5% 11 -8.0
Chris Carson <5% 10 -7.0
Josh Allen <5% 10 -7.0
Bears <5% 10 -7.0
Tyler Lockett <5% 9 -6.0
Tom Brady 11 17 -6.0
Jordy Nelson <5% 9 -6.0
Randall Cobb <5% 8 -5.0
Dede Westbrook 6 11 -5.0
Josh Gordon 6 11 -5.0
Leonard Fournette 13 18 -5.0
Kenneth Dixon <5% 7 -4.0
Ezekiel Elliott 26 30 -4.0
Bills 6 9 -3.0
Jaguars 11 14 -3.0
Calvin Ridley 5 8 -3.0
Derek Carr <5% 6 -3.0
Dante Pettis <5% 6 -3.0
Dalvin Cook 21 24 -3.0
Robert Foster 5 7 -2.0
Lamar Jackson <5% 5 -2.0
Seahawks <5% 5 -2.0
Mitchell Trubisky 5 7 -2.0
Doug Martin <5% 5 -2.0
Vernon Davis 5 7 -2.0
Stefon Diggs 8 9 -1.0
Kyle Rudolph 5 5 0.0
Isaiah McKenzie 5 5 0.0
Dak Prescott 6 6 0.0
Antonio Brown 16 15 1.0
James White 6 5 1.0
Adam Thielen 9 8 1.0
Kirk Cousins 7 6 1.0
Vikings 6 5 1.0
Chris Godwin 5 <5% 2.0
Vance McDonald 8 6 2.0
Larry Fitzgerald 10 7 3.0
Ravens 18 15 3.0
Andrew Luck 6 <5% 3.0
Michael Gallup 8 5 3.0
Austin Hooper 6 <5% 3.0
Taylor Gabriel 9 5 4.0
Saquon Barkley 24 20 4.0
Lions 8 <5% 5.0
Kenny Stills 10 5 5.0
Sterling Shepard 26 21 5.0
Eric Ebron 18 13 5.0
Kenny Golladay 8 <5% 5.0
Tyler Boyd 20 14 6.0
T.Y. Hilton 15 8 7.0
David Johnson 18 10 8.0
Ben Roethlisberger 18 10 8.0
Matt Ryan 11 <5% 8.0
Falcons 15 6 9.0
Tevin Coleman 15 6 9.0
Julio Jones 15 6 9.0
George Kittle 17 7 10.0
Joe Mixon 51 41 10.0
Marcus Murphy 15 <5% 12.0
Davante Adams 20 8 12.0
Jaylen Samuels 38 21 17.0

Some sharp plays by the Top 50. Gronk fade, Matt Ryan at 11%, and Joe Mixon at 51%.

Jaylen Samuels did well but didn’t make our pruned player pool. The lack of a touchdown really hurt an otherwise great day.

Announcements

Thanks for All the Support On Reddit This Year

Thank you to all my readers and all those on Reddit who have supported me through constructive feedback and upvotes. I appreciate it and am striving to become a better player while creating content like this.

Last Recap of The Year (I mean it this time)

With the holidays approaching and the DK Milly Maker down to $15 for next week this will be the last recap. Even if it goes back to $20 for Week 17.

I will still download the csv for the player profiles and other content.

IT Certification Category (English)468x60

Different Content Coming by August 2019

I’m excited to launch a DraftKings Rankings/Standing page. I’ll also do some more pro profiles before the 2019 season. Stay tuned as I beef up my tools and follow me on Twitter or subscribe to my mailing list.

 

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *