DraftKings Week 14 Recap

Quick Summary

  • crk3250 wins with 244.30 points
    • He entered 9 lineups and won on a big outlier
      • He likely manually entered his lineups
      • Huge win in OT
    • He hit on 4 of the players in the best possible lineup
      • Dak, Elliott, Cooper, and Gronk
      • Triple stacks make the prediction much easier because your event space is smaller
  • Ending places 8th and won $10,285
    • But he’s still down $19,240 on the season in the Milly Maker.
    • Week 13 he max entered in the $100 entry Milly and lost a whopping $14,850!
  • Mitchell Trubisky is the top DFS QB so far this year
    • 3 appearances in the best possible lineup.
      • This is not adjusted for number of appearances in the main slate
    • Drew Brees and Josh Allen have 2 appearances each
  • Week 6 Milly Maker Winner Davematt123 places 18th
  • 154.98 to cash
  • Best possible lineup 285.5 points

crk3250’s Winning Day

crk3250's Winning Lineup 244.30 Points

In Week 14 crk3250 entered 9 lineups. Of these 9 Dak Prescott was used in just lineup.

Here’s all of his lineups

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pos 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
QB QB Dak Prescott QB Josh Allen QB Josh Allen QB Aaron Rodgers QB Josh Allen QB Aaron Rodgers QB Josh Allen QB Ben Roethlisberger QB Lamar Jackson
RB RB Christian McCaffrey RB Jeff Wilson Jr. FLEX Christian McCaffrey RB Christian McCaffrey RB Jeff Wilson Jr. RB Saquon Barkley FLEX Christian McCaffrey RB Jeff Wilson Jr. RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB RB Ezekiel Elliott RB Jaylen Samuels RB Jeff Wilson Jr. RB Saquon Barkley RB Justin Jackson RB Sony Michel RB Jeff Wilson Jr. FLEX Justin Jackson RB Justin Jackson
FLEX Phillip Lindsay WR Michael Thomas RB Jaylen Samuels FLEX Davante Adams FLEX Jaylen Samuels WR Davante Adams RB Jaylen Samuels RB Jaylen Samuels FLEX Jaylen Samuels
WR WR Amari Cooper WR Davante Adams WR Michael Thomas WR Zay Jones WR Michael Thomas FLEX Sterling Shepard WR Michael Thomas WR Antonio Brown WR Davante Adams
WR WR Robert Foster WR Tyreek Hill WR Julian Edelman WR Chris Conley WR Davante Adams WR Zay Jones WR Josh Gordon WR Michael Thomas WR DeAndre Hopkins
WR DaeSean Hamilton FLEX Robert Foster WR Robert Foster WR DaeSean Hamilton WR Julio Jones WR DaeSean Hamilton WR Zay Jones WR Julio Jones WR Keenan Allen
TE TE Rob Gronkowski TE Eric Ebron TE Zach Ertz TE Evan Engram TE Eric Ebron TE Travis Kelce TE Zach Ertz TE Evan Engram TE Travis Kelce
DST DST Giants DST Steelers DST Eagles DST Giants DST Cowboys DST Giants DST Eagles DST Saints DST Cowboys
Points 244.3 161.44 160.84 157.04 152.64 151.04 136.64 134.18 130.48

crk3250 hit on 4 of the best possible lineup’s players!

  • Dak, Elliott, Cooper, and Gronk
  • Triple stacks make the prediction much easier because your event space is smaller

Also I think he manually entered these. It’s not very efficient to code all the constraints into an optimizer in order to get to this. Or maybe he locked a cohort and picked the best possible players around those. I bet he’s glad he played that Dak lineup and that the game went to OT.

And a look at his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Josh Allen 44 RB Jeff Wilson Jr. 66 WR Michael Thomas 55 TE Eric Ebron 22 DST Giants 33
QB Aaron Rodgers 22 RB Jaylen Samuels 66 WR Davante Adams 55 TE Zach Ertz 22 DST Eagles 22
QB Dak Prescott 11 RB Christian McCaffrey 44 WR Robert Foster 33 TE Evan Engram 22 DST Cowboys 22
QB Ben Roethlisberger 11 RB Justin Jackson 33 WR DaeSean Hamilton 33 TE Travis Kelce 22 DST Steelers 11
QB Lamar Jackson 11 RB Saquon Barkley 22 WR Zay Jones 33 TE Rob Gronkowski 11 DST Saints 11
RB Ezekiel Elliott 11 WR Julio Jones 22
RB Phillip Lindsay 11 WR Amari Cooper 11
RB Sony Michel 11 WR Tyreek Hill 11
WR Julian Edelman 11
WR Chris Conley 11
WR Sterling Shepard 11
WR Josh Gordon 11
WR Antonio Brown 11
WR DeAndre Hopkins 11
WR Keenan Allen 11

Notice an interesting hedge in his lineups. Dak Prescott and the Eagles D are both in his lineups (remember Dallas played the Eagles in Week 14). Some players won’t include a D outright if they choose offensive players against them in their player pool.

Other thoughts:

  • He played Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson Jr. together 100% of the time
    • This is definitely deliberate and allowed him to pay up at other positions
    • That pairing did well but wasn’t explosive enough to take home the top prize
  • Split between Zay Jones and Robert Foster
    • He played Zay or Robert Foster in lineups. Never both together.
    • Probably should have paid up at WR more when the two cheap RB’s were used.
  • Picking a top DST is important
    • The Lion’s were slightly better on salary but the Giant’s D was very good and needed to win.

Player Spotlight

Results of Players We Track

Player Number of Lineups Paid Won win/entry
davematt123 31 620 2800.0 4.516129
ending 150 3000 10285.0 3.428333
csuram88 8 160 110.0 0.687500
petrgibbons 150 3000 405.0 0.135000
Awesemo 150 3000 -60.0 -0.020000
chipotleaddict 150 3000 -150.0 -0.050000
Nickelback4Lyfe 150 3000 -315.0 -0.105000
mallen21 150 3000 -730.0 -0.243333
chess_is_ok 150 3000 -890.0 -0.296667
tommyg1979 3 60 -20.0 -0.333333
Al_Smizzle 150 3000 -1170.0 -0.390000
papagates 150 3000 -1740.0 -0.580000
saahilsud 150 3000 -1800.0 -0.600000
bales 14 280 -190.0 -0.678571
Bearsfan247 101 2020 -1420.0 -0.702970
Slaytations 31 620 -590.0 -0.951613
rcrumpto 4 80 -80.0 -1.000000
bassinmatt 1 20 -20.0 -1.000000
scout326 0 0 0.0 NaN
  • Tommyg1979 may be tightening up his wad
    • I swear that dude bets on everything or at least looks like he does
  •  Saahilsud is max entering again
  • CSURAM88 and Bales continue rolling their small rolls
    • Bales had a nice showing in the King of the Beach contest
    • But I wonder how much of what they do is marketing and careful contest selection rather than contest skill
      • Regardless, contest selection is important

Ending

Ending had a big win, 8th place, but unfortunately it wasn’t big enough. Max entering is expensive, especially when you max enter the Milly Maker at $100 each in Week 13 and only place with one lineup.
He lost $14,850 on the Milly in Week 13!


Here’s his weekly results in the Milly

week_num num entered payout paid
0 1 150.0 -1300.0 3000.0
1 2 150.0 2520.0 3000.0
2 3 150.0 -2610.0 3000.0
3 4 150.0 -1245.0 1500.0
4 5 150.0 2370.0 3000.0
5 6 150.0 -1485.0 1500.0
6 7 150.0 -2120.0 3000.0
7 8 150.0 -2300.0 3000.0
8 9 150.0 -3000.0 3000.0
9 10 150.0 -2050.0 3000.0
10 11 150.0 -1150.0 3000.0
11 12 150.0 -2305.0 3000.0
12 13 150.0 -14850.0 15000.0
13 14 150.0 10285.0 3000.0
14 Totals 2100.0 -19240.0 51000.0

While this doesn’t mean ending is a bad player, he did win the Milly Maker in week 12 last year, the jury is still out on whether he’s a shark or not.

Davematt123

Week 6 Milly Maker winner Davematt123 placed 18th. Take out his big win and he’s only down $715 on $7,180 spend. And I don’t mean that in a bad way. That’s actually pretty good because even if you view Milly win’s as fluky he’s doing pretty well.

week_num num entered payout paid
0 1 19.0 -90.0 380.0
1 2 12.0 -60.0 240.0
2 3 18.0 -240.0 360.0
3 4 40.0 -255.0 400.0
4 5 24.0 -440.0 480.0
5 6 34.0 999900.0 340.0
6 7 28.0 380.0 560.0
7 8 27.0 -310.0 540.0
8 9 33.0 -90.0 660.0
9 10 27.0 -480.0 540.0
10 11 26.0 -520.0 520.0
11 12 22.0 -410.0 440.0
12 13 11.0 -900.0 1100.0
13 14 31.0 2800.0 620.0
14 Totals 352.0 999285.0 7180.0

This is more impressive than ending and for the 2018 NFL season I’d argue Davematt123 is the better player right now (our rankings/standings will reflect that once they are ready).

Also, Davematt123 clearly practices some form of bankroll management. In Week 13 with the Milly Maker at $100 each, he entered 11 lineups. Down from his usual ~28.

We’ll keep our eye on you Davematt123.

Past Milly Maker Winners

Week Winner Player Number of Lineups Paid Won
1 Chalk 1 20 10.0
2 JEREMYHEIN 150 3000 -2485.0
3 TheHodgesFactor 2 40 -40.0
4 Nickelback4Lyfe 150 3000 -315.0
5 Slaytations 31 620 -590.0
6 davematt123 31 620 2800.0
7 bassinmatt 1 20 -20.0
8 LolololoLola 10 200 -140.0
9 jab76r 20 400 -340.0
10 BearDown247 12 240 -130.0
11 BillyVonElds 40 800 -375.0
12 Pajamadaddy17 2 40 -40.0
13 adamlegbert 1 20 -20.0
  • Davematt123 seems to be doing the best out of this crop.
  • Nickelback4Lyfe is outperforming most “pros” but still losing a little each week.
  • I’m impressed by how little some of these players enter after winning
    • If it was me, there’s no way I could enter just 1 lineup after winning the Milly
    • Most players seem to stick to their strategies week-in and week-out

Pro vs Herd

Here is the section where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 with everyone else (their rankings are heavily skewed to high volume players but it’s the best we have… for now).

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
giantsquid 8380.0 150 55.866667
bdholla89 850.0 150 5.666667
wakeywakey 520.0 150 3.466667
rikkidee 460.0 150 3.066667
petrgibbons 405.0 150 2.700000
youdacao 370.0 150 2.466667
fjbourne 240.0 13 18.461538
teejayortj -1830.0 150 -12.200000
jayk123x -1985.0 150 -13.233333
jbcjbcjbc -2100.0 150 -14.000000
suidmach -2295.0 150 -15.300000
petteytheft89 -2680.0 150 -17.866667

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
crk3250 999910.0 9 111101.111111
girthy42 100015.0 5 20003.000000
crunchlord 42640.0 150 284.266667
hubeihammer 24960.0 10 2496.000000
willman3321 19940.0 3 6646.666667
geod 14980.0 3 4993.333333
ending 10285.0 150 68.566667
nate13 -2640.0 150 -17.600000
markcpro -2755.0 150 -18.366667
nicky6 -2850.0 150 -19.000000
cubasugar1 -2970.0 150 -19.800000
mrnastytime91 -3000.0 150 -20.000000

mrnastytime91 takes down the worst lineups award.

Pro vs Herd Point Distributions

index Points_other Points_rg_top_50
count 172864.000000 3494.000000
mean 137.116011 145.026222
std 23.839497 22.967670
min 36.900000 84.140000
25% 120.480000 128.825000
50% 135.540000 143.980000
75% 152.220000 160.575000
max 244.300000 236.480000

The Rotogrinder’s Top 50 outperformed the herd for the most part. Expect with the top prize.

Pro vs Herd Player Pool Comparisons

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Phillip Lindsay 5 18 -13.0
Christian McCaffrey 14 23 -9.0
Zay Jones <5% 12 -9.0
Rob Gronkowski 5 13 -8.0
Keenan Allen 18 25 -7.0
Vance McDonald <5% 8 -5.0
Chargers <5% 8 -5.0
Ezekiel Elliott 20 25 -5.0
Bills <5% 8 -5.0
Antonio Brown 6 10 -4.0
Josh Allen <5% 7 -4.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster <5% 7 -4.0
Amari Cooper 8 12 -4.0
Adam Humphries 12 16 -4.0
Mike Evans <5% 6 -3.0
David Njoku <5% 6 -3.0
Aaron Jones 10 13 -3.0
Aaron Rodgers 8 11 -3.0
Philip Rivers <5% 6 -3.0
Jarvis Landry <5% 6 -3.0
Steelers <5% 5 -2.0
Antonio Callaway <5% 5 -2.0
LeSean McCoy <5% 5 -2.0
Texans <5% 5 -2.0
Tre’Quan Smith <5% 5 -2.0
Alvin Kamara 20 22 -2.0
Mark Ingram <5% 5 -2.0
Golden Tate <5% 5 -2.0
Giants 13 14 -1.0
Davante Adams 14 15 -1.0
Drew Brees 9 10 -1.0
Courtland Sutton 22 22 0.0
Austin Ekeler 6 5 1.0
Ben Roethlisberger 10 9 1.0
Chris Godwin 23 21 2.0
Larry Fitzgerald 5 <5% 2.0
Zach Ertz 13 11 2.0
Michael Thomas 15 13 2.0
Nick Chubb 5 <5% 2.0
Sterling Shepard 15 13 2.0
Lions 5 <5% 2.0
Eric Ebron 16 14 2.0
Chiefs 8 6 2.0
Saints 8 5 3.0
Cameron Brate 6 <5% 3.0
Matt Ryan 6 <5% 3.0
Jets 6 <5% 3.0
Jameis Winston 10 6 4.0
Demaryius Thomas 7 <5% 4.0
Redskins 7 <5% 4.0
Bruce Ellington 7 <5% 4.0
DaeSean Hamilton 7 <5% 4.0
Andrew Luck 7 <5% 4.0
Packers 8 <5% 5.0
Patrick Mahomes 11 6 5.0
Deshaun Watson 13 8 5.0
Saquon Barkley 22 17 5.0
Cardinals 10 5 5.0
Justin Jackson 18 12 6.0
Tyreek Hill 13 5 8.0
George Kittle 12 <5% 9.0
David Johnson 13 <5% 10.0
T.Y. Hilton 17 6 11.0
Julio Jones 22 10 12.0
Travis Kelce 31 19 12.0
Jeff Wilson Jr. 39 27 12.0
DeAndre Hopkins 32 15 17.0
Jaylen Samuels 57 32 25.0

The pro’s correctly faded Lindsay and had a nice hit with Jaylen Samuels. 57% to one players is the highest utilization by pro or herd we’ve seen all year. They must feel that any RB can succeed on the Steelers. Although I’m team Le’veon

Le'Veon Bell Like

Mobile QB’s Anyone?

Still no one has love much for Josh Allen. That dude has been a DFS stud this year. Still not as good as Mitch Trubisky, this year’s top QB. Look at all the players who have been in more than one of the best possible main slate lineups.

Best Lineup Possible Appearances
Travis Kelce 4
Todd Gurley 4
Alvin Kamara 4
Adam Thielen 3
Mitchell Trubisky 3
Christian McCaffrey 3
Ezekiel Elliott 3
James Conner 3
Tyreek Hill 2
Tarik Cohen 2
Saquon Barkley 2
JuJu Smith-Schuster 2
Michael Thomas 2
Miami Dolphins 2
Josh Allen 2
Eric Ebron 2
Drew Brees 2
Baltimore Ravens 2
Zach Ertz 2

The Bears D missing and the QB’s are most surprising.

Best Possible Lineup: 285.5 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Dak Prescott QB 30.4 5600.0 DAL
Damien Williams RB 19.0 3000.0 KC
Ezekiel Elliott RB 34.2 8600.0 DAL
Amari Cooper WR 52.7 6600.0 DAL
Kenny Stills WR 30.5 4100.0 MIA
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 36.0 8200.0 PIT
George Kittle TE 37.0 5500.0 SF
Rob Gronkowski FLEX 27.7 4800.0 NE
Detroit Lions DST 18.0 2900.0 DET
285.5 49300.0

Most of the best possible lineups have featured at least one stack. Here a triple stack comes out on top.

The player pool of the better than winner’s lineups

Name Percentage team_name position opp_name salary predictedScore
Amari Cooper 1.000 DAL WR PHI 6600.0 52.70
George Kittle 0.656 SF TE DEN 5500.0 37.00
Kenny Stills 0.415 MIA WR NE 4100.0 30.50
New York Giants 0.363 NYG DST WAS 2500.0 18.00
Dak Prescott 0.336 DAL QB PHI 5600.0 30.40
Ezekiel Elliott 0.336 DAL RB PHI 8600.0 34.20
Detroit Lions 0.328 DET DST ARI 2900.0 18.00
Joe Mixon 0.317 CIN RB LAC 6400.0 27.80
T.Y. Hilton 0.311 IND WR HOU 6300.0 31.90
JuJu Smith-Schuster 0.286 PIT WR OAK 8200.0 36.00
Damien Williams 0.274 KC RB BAL 3000.0 19.00
Brandon Bolden 0.274 MIA RB NE 3000.0 19.00
Saquon Barkley 0.270 NYG RB WAS 8900.0 32.70
Julio Jones 0.248 ATL WR GB 7900.0 33.60
Green Bay Packers 0.237 GB DST ATL 2100.0 13.00
Rob Gronkowski 0.225 NE TE MIA 4800.0 27.70
Ryan Tannehill 0.218 MIA QB NE 4800.0 23.90
Robert Foster 0.214 BUF WR NYJ 3300.0 20.40
Nick Mullens 0.193 SF QB DEN 4600.0 22.28
Jarvis Landry 0.192 CLE WR CAR 5800.0 25.10
Josh Allen 0.191 BUF QB NYJ 5500.0 24.34
Zach Pascal 0.172 IND WR HOU 3000.0 17.80
DaeSean Hamilton 0.171 DEN WR SF 3000.0 17.70
Spencer Ware 0.162 KC RB BAL 5200.0 17.90
Robby Anderson 0.148 NYJ WR BUF 3600.0 17.60
Christian McCaffrey 0.148 CAR RB CLE 9300.0 28.10
Isaiah McKenzie 0.143 BUF WR NYJ 3400.0 16.90
Ian Thomas 0.116 CAR TE CLE 2700.0 16.70
Nick Chubb 0.113 CLE RB CAR 6700.0 18.30
Aaron Jones 0.112 GB RB ATL 7200.0 19.60
Julian Edelman 0.112 NE WR MIA 7100.0 23.60
Jared Cook 0.105 OAK TE PIT 5200.0 21.60
Tyreek Hill 0.100 KC WR BAL 8000.0 25.50
Dallas Goedert 0.091 PHI TE DAL 2500.0 14.40
Alshon Jeffery 0.081 PHI WR DAL 5500.0 17.00
Cameron Brate 0.078 TB TE NO 3500.0 15.20
Ryan Griffin 0.076 HOU TE IND 2500.0 13.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.073 TB DST NO 2000.0 4.00
Travis Kelce 0.054 KC TE BAL 6700.0 20.70
Jeff Driskel 0.051 CIN QB LAC 4400.0 12.00
Joe Webb 0.011 HOU QB IND 4000.0 3.30

Amari Cooper was an objective best pick possible. And Josh Allen, not Lamar Jackson, makes the list as the ~3rd best QB. Notice how most of the QB’s are under 6k salary. Although that’s not always the case it’s generally a good play. See the below section some stats on the best possible lineups this year.

The Lion’s Defense was the best (I need to make an improvement to my pruning rule to cut out the Giants D in this case).

Season Long Best Lineups Possible

Now that we finished Week 14 it’s interesting to take a look at characteristics of the top 10 best possible lineups each week. NOT the lineups that actually won the Milly Maker but those that would have won the Milly and every contest on the main slate.

Look at some common metrics: salary, points, and points per $1k in salary.

position DST QB RB TE WR
points count 140.000000 140.000000 355.000000 162.000000 463.000000
mean 18.771429 36.075286 34.749014 27.469136 32.808639
std 3.793866 6.173122 5.998842 6.773260 6.481694
min 11.000000 23.900000 18.100000 16.300000 17.100000
25% 17.000000 31.340000 31.200000 21.725000 29.000000
50% 18.000000 34.440000 34.500000 27.800000 32.900000
75% 22.000000 41.875000 38.000000 30.600000 35.900000
max 28.000000 46.460000 52.700000 42.800000 52.700000
points/$1k_salary count 140.000000 140.000000 355.000000 162.000000 463.000000
mean 6.734323 6.391361 5.526411 6.488792 6.505875
std 1.300580 1.305507 1.577451 1.799090 1.806834
min 4.193548 4.288571 3.108696 2.926471 3.216867
25% 5.666667 5.407937 4.247059 5.289474 5.157895
50% 6.571429 6.189655 5.212766 6.314286 6.475410
75% 7.600000 6.964286 6.721429 8.028571 7.622294
max 8.928571 9.056000 10.466667 9.928571 11.756757
salary count 140.000000 140.000000 355.000000 162.000000 463.000000
mean 2835.714286 5705.000000 6760.845070 4533.333333 5388.984881
std 543.777280 613.789386 2020.478314 1526.169239 1665.276795
min 2000.000000 4300.000000 3000.000000 2500.000000 3000.000000
25% 2500.000000 5275.000000 4800.000000 3500.000000 3800.000000
50% 2800.000000 5600.000000 7000.000000 4100.000000 5000.000000
75% 3300.000000 6100.000000 8500.000000 5900.000000 6900.000000
max 4100.000000 7000.000000 10000.000000 7100.000000 8600.000000

Averages are a fickle best in such an explosive game like daily fantasy sports. I’d recommend you use averages as a general idea and not a hard number. Also look at the min and max values.

The main takeaway for newer players to GPP’s is that you shouldn’t pick a player in your GPP lineup if you can’t see him scoring over a minimum points/$1k_salary metric.

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Also keep in mind 6k as a potential top salary for QB’s. Granted this information is only useful if it’s actionable, there is no way you can expect to pick the best possible lineup each week. A more expensive QB generally can’t run and is a better passer. Therefore you should definitely stack him or use a triple stack.

Announcements/Misc

At least one more recap coming

DraftKings has another $20 Milly Maker for Week 15 so expect to see another article. I won’t continue these into the playoffs but instead focus on more season long standings and deeper analysis pieces over the offseason.

I finally did it, Week 12 I took home 3rd and 6th in a GPP

Not first but a nice payday. But still, I’m finally profitable in DFS and I hope to continue this success into higher payout contests.

If you aint first you're last

Will you keep doing recaps?

Yes. I’ll continue to do these recaps for the foreseeable future. I view them as an important piece of my research process and development as a DFS player. All the readers have great insights to share and keep me motivated in down weeks.

I’ve also softened my stance on people like Al_Smizzle, although I do think he looks tired and does more content than is necessary if he was a very profitable pro.

I will let you know if I ever see touts advocating picks and then going against that. Once in a while is fine because they could have changed their minds but a pattern of misinformation is an issue. So far I haven’t seen much of that but I also haven’t been looking too hard.

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Follow Me On Twitter… if you like

Follow me here https://twitter.com/matteohoch_dfs

Not much on there yet but more to come.

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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