DraftKings Week 12 Recap

Quick Summary

  • Pajamadaddy17 wins with 252.82 points
    • First time he entered more than one lineup in a Milly Maker
    • Entered 1 lineup in week 1-11 and only single entered in weeks 4 and 6 when the entry was reduced to $10.
    • Without the Milly Maker win he would have lost $160.
  • Christian McCaffrey was a unanimous best player possible
    • All of our better than winner lineups used McCaffrey
    • Juju Smith-Schuster was next up with being used in 99.99% of our better than winner lineups
  • The last recap of the season
    • Next week’s contest has $100 entry and I’d rather keep these to the $20 or $10 entry.
    • In the meantime I’ll be doubling down on DFS content
      • Stay tuned and subscribe to our mailing list
    • Some season long Milly Maker analysis articles coming soon
  • 168.86 to cash
  • Best possible lineup: 270.00 points and a salary of $49,900.
    • Josh Allen FTW

Pajamadaddy17 Wins with 252.82 Points

Pajamadaddy17's Winning Lineup 252.82

It’s hard to get too into actionable strategy with Pajamadaddy17. He doesn’t really multi-entry so we’ll have to take a look at what he’s entered in prior weeks.

week_num 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12
0 QB Eli Manning QB Alex Smith QB Blake Bortles QB Andy Dalton QB Derek Carr QB Jameis Winston QB Joe Flacco QB Aaron Rodgers QB Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Patrick Mahomes QB Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Lamar Jackson QB Lamar Jackson
1 RB Alvin Kamara RB Alvin Kamara RB Alvin Kamara RB Melvin Gordon III RB Melvin Gordon III RB Melvin Gordon III FLEX Todd Gurley II RB Todd Gurley II RB Todd Gurley II FLEX Todd Gurley II FLEX Alvin Kamara RB Saquon Barkley RB Saquon Barkley
2 RB Christian McCaffrey FLEX Kareem Hunt RB Latavius Murray RB Kerryon Johnson RB Carlos Hyde RB Marshawn Lynch RB Adrian Peterson RB Adrian Peterson RB Kareem Hunt RB Melvin Gordon III RB Christian McCaffrey RB Christian McCaffrey RB Christian McCaffrey
3 FLEX Alex Collins RB Chris Thompson FLEX Corey Clement FLEX Michael Thomas WR Corey Davis FLEX Mike Davis RB Kerryon Johnson FLEX Doug Martin FLEX Adrian Peterson RB Jamaal Williams RB Derrick Henry FLEX Austin Ekeler FLEX Duke Johnson Jr.
4 WR Keenan Allen WR Jarvis Landry WR T.Y. Hilton WR Jarvis Landry WR Calvin Ridley WR Mike Evans WR Jarvis Landry WR Davante Adams WR Kenny Golladay WR Tyler Boyd WR DeAndre Hopkins WR JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Emmanuel Sanders
5 WR Tyreek Hill WR Randall Cobb WR Will Fuller V WR Sterling Shepard WR Tyler Boyd WR A.J. Green WR Robby Anderson WR T.Y. Hilton WR Michael Crabtree WR Corey Davis WR Kenny Golladay WR Emmanuel Sanders WR Doug Baldwin
6 WR Kenny Stills WR Mohamed Sanu WR Keelan Cole WR Geronimo Allison FLEX Martavis Bryant WR Chester Rogers WR Willie Snead IV WR Jermaine Kearse WR D.J. Moore WR Chris Conley WR Brandon LaFell WR David Moore WR DeSean Jackson
7 TE Jack Doyle TE Jordan Reed TE Evan Engram TE Eric Ebron TE Zach Ertz TE Austin Hooper TE Zach Ertz TE Vance McDonald TE O.J. Howard TE Chris Herndon TE O.J. Howard TE Cameron Brate TE Jared Cook
8 DST Cardinals DST Jets DST Chiefs DST Colts DST 49ers DST Titans DST Bears DST Steelers DST Broncos DST Falcons DST Jaguars DST Ravens DST Giants
Points 196.36 110.18 114.5 160.08 113.12 151.3 153.26 139.34 132.02 124.46 127.08 252.82 166.22

My takeaways:

  • He doesn’t always stack his QB with a WR or TE.
  • He does play offense with the DST on the same team
    • Week 12 Lamar Jackson- Ravens DST
    • Week 12 Saquon Barkley-Giants DST
    • Week 4 Eric Ebron-Colts DST
  • He seems to like matchups
    • Joe Flacco in Week 7 against the Saints (Flacco coming off bad game but Saints D offered a chance at a high scoring game)
    • In Week 9 he used Crabtree
      • Crabtree had a bad week against the Panthers but he picked him to bounce back against the Pittsburgh Steelers
  • It appears he has only used players that have been a part of Milly Making lineups before.
    • He doesn’t predict breakout games but hopes for repeats

Season Long Player Pool

I put this through our typical player pool analyzer but with all of his 13 lineups and found some shocking results. Look at his DST usage..

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 15 RB Christian McCaffrey 31 WR Jarvis Landry 23 TE Zach Ertz 15 DST Cardinals 8
QB Lamar Jackson 15 RB Melvin Gordon III 31 WR T.Y. Hilton 15 TE O.J. Howard 15 DST Jets 8
QB Eli Manning 8 RB Alvin Kamara 23 WR Corey Davis 15 TE Jack Doyle 8 DST Chiefs 8
QB Alex Smith 8 RB Kerryon Johnson 15 WR Tyler Boyd 15 TE Jordan Reed 8 DST Colts 8
QB Blake Bortles 8 RB Adrian Peterson 15 WR Kenny Golladay 15 TE Evan Engram 8 DST 49ers 8
QB Andy Dalton 8 RB Todd Gurley II 15 WR Emmanuel Sanders 15 TE Eric Ebron 8 DST Titans 8
QB Derek Carr 8 RB Saquon Barkley 15 WR Keenan Allen 8 TE Austin Hooper 8 DST Bears 8
QB Jameis Winston 8 RB Chris Thompson 8 WR Tyreek Hill 8 TE Vance McDonald 8 DST Steelers 8
QB Joe Flacco 8 RB Latavius Murray 8 WR Kenny Stills 8 TE Chris Herndon 8 DST Broncos 8
QB Aaron Rodgers 8 RB Carlos Hyde 8 WR Randall Cobb 8 TE Cameron Brate 8 DST Falcons 8
QB Patrick Mahomes 8 RB Marshawn Lynch 8 WR Mohamed Sanu 8 TE Jared Cook 8 DST Jaguars 8
RB Kareem Hunt 8 WR Will Fuller V 8 DST Ravens 8
RB Jamaal Williams 8 WR Keelan Cole 8 DST Giants 8
RB Derrick Henry 8 WR Sterling Shepard 8
WR Geronimo Allison 8
WR Calvin Ridley 8
WR Mike Evans 8
WR A.J. Green 8
WR Chester Rogers 8
WR Robby Anderson 8
WR Willie Snead IV 8
WR Davante Adams 8
WR Jermaine Kearse 8
WR Michael Crabtree 8
WR D.J. Moore 8
WR Chris Conley 8
WR DeAndre Hopkins 8
WR Brandon LaFell 8
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 8
WR David Moore 8
WR Doug Baldwin 8
WR DeSean Jackson 8

He has never used a DST more than once. It looks like Pajamadaddy17 plays DraftKings as if he was in a survivor pool. Maybe he misread the rules or has some divine wisdom.

I’d guess it’s not the later.

I tried hard to figure out what this guy is up to and I got nothing.

Headscratch

 

I  looked for some patterns like always choosing the team with the defense that plays the team with the lowest Vegas implied points but that’s not the case either. If you can find something let me know. The one thing I did notice is that he doesn’t play players against his own starting defense.

So perhaps DST is an afterthought but still… you’d expect one of his defenses to repeat.

And looking at the rest of his lineups, he seems to apply the survivor pool mindset quite often.

My Verdict

Pajamadaddy17 knows some DFS tenets for GPP’s like not facing your own defense BUT the majority of what he’s doing seems piss-poor. It is generally not advisable to play a different DST, WR, etc each week. This can lead to “chasing” hot hands rather than having a reproducible strategy.

Player Spotlight

Past 2018 Winners

Week Winner Player Number of Lineups Paid Won
1 Chalk 7 140 -110.0
2 JEREMYHEIN 67 1340 -1220.0
3 TheHodgesFactor 3 60 15.0
4 Nickelback4Lyfe 0 0 0.0
5 Slaytations 42 840 -550.0
6 davematt123 22 440 -410.0
7 bassinmatt 1 20 -20.0
8 LolololoLola 14 280 -190.0
9 jab76r 98 1960 -475.0
10 BearDown247 9 180 -140.0
11 BillyVonElds 25 500 -330.0

Nickelback4Lyfe took a break from the Milly Maker and only TheHodgesFactor won money.

Pro Player Spotlight/High Volume Players

Player Number of Lineups Paid Won win/entry
chipotleaddict 150 3000 1355.0 0.451667
rcrumpto 4 80 30.0 0.375000
papagates 150 3000 350.0 0.116667
petrgibbons 150 3000 -1340.0 -0.446667
Bearsfan247 150 3000 -1870.0 -0.623333
Slaytations 42 840 -550.0 -0.654762
Al_Smizzle 149 2980 -2070.0 -0.694631
Awesemo 150 3000 -2095.0 -0.698333
mallen21 150 3000 -2285.0 -0.761667
ending 150 3000 -2305.0 -0.768333
chess_is_ok 150 3000 -2540.0 -0.846667
davematt123 22 440 -410.0 -0.931818
tommyg1979 6 120 -120.0 -1.000000
saahilsud 1 20 -20.0 -1.000000
csuram88 3 60 -60.0 -1.000000
bales 5 100 -100.0 -1.000000
bassinmatt 1 20 -20.0 -1.000000
scout326 0 0 0.0 NaN
Nickelback4Lyfe 0 0 0.0 NaN
  • ChipotleAddict has put together a few good weeks since I said he may be garbage at DFS
    • He won the Wildcat a few weeks back
  • Awesemo continues his dreadful 2018 Milly Maker performances
    • He’s lost $17,950 on the Milly Maker in 2018
  • Bearsfan247 does bad without the Bears in the main slate
  • scout326 may have thrown in the towel
  • saahilsud played his first lineup since entering 145 in Week 3.

No Individual Player Spotlight

I’m going to start work on season long strategy and DraftKings GPP meta articles.

If you really want to see a player and can’t wait just comment on reddit or here and I’ll run the player pool utilization tool.

Best Lineup Possible: 270.00 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Josh Allen QB 26.3 4400.0 BUF
Christian McCaffrey RB 52.7 7900.0 CAR
Kenyan Drake RB 26.6 4700.0 MIA
Tyler Lockett WR 24.5 5200.0 SEA
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 40.9 7500.0 PIT
David Moore WR 23.3 3700.0 SEA
Eric Ebron TE 21.5 4000.0 IND
Saquon Barkley FLEX 36.2 9100.0 NYG
Baltimore Ravens DST 18.0 3300.0 BAL
270.0 49800.0

That’s the second time this year you could have won $1,000,000 with Josh Allen — Viking fans will remember.

There were at least 2583 better lineups than winner’s 252.82. The player pool of these lineups is shown below

Name Percentage team_name position opp_name salary dk_points
Christian McCaffrey 1.000 CAR RB SEA 7900.0 52.70
JuJu Smith-Schuster 0.999 PIT WR DEN 7500.0 40.90
Baltimore Ravens 0.716 BAL DST OAK 3300.0 18.00
Josh Allen 0.583 BUF QB JAC 4400.0 26.30
Saquon Barkley 0.566 NYG RB PHI 9100.0 36.20
David Moore 0.506 SEA WR CAR 3700.0 23.30
Eric Ebron 0.486 IND TE MIA 4000.0 21.50
Austin Ekeler 0.436 LAC RB ARI 3700.0 26.30
Andrew Luck 0.394 IND QB MIA 6400.0 28.62
Tyler Lockett 0.381 SEA WR CAR 5200.0 24.50
Kenyan Drake 0.340 MIA RB IND 4700.0 26.60
Denver Broncos 0.249 DEN DST PIT 2300.0 13.00
Nick Chubb 0.236 CLE RB CIN 6300.0 27.80
Jermaine Kearse 0.191 NYJ WR NE 3500.0 18.60
Mike Williams 0.186 LAC WR ARI 3500.0 18.50
Emmanuel Sanders 0.170 DEN WR PIT 5500.0 21.60
Robert Foster 0.167 BUF WR JAC 3000.0 17.40
David Njoku 0.162 CLE TE CIN 3800.0 17.30
Dante Pettis 0.161 SF WR TB 3300.0 17.70
Zach Ertz 0.158 PHI TE NYG 6400.0 22.10
Sony Michel 0.152 NE RB NYJ 5800.0 25.50
T.Y. Hilton 0.126 IND WR MIA 6500.0 22.50
Tyler Boyd 0.122 CIN WR CLE 6000.0 21.50
Leonard Fournette 0.107 JAC RB BUF 6700.0 25.80
Matt LaCosse 0.062 DEN TE PIT 2500.0 12.40
Leonte Carroo 0.062 MIA WR IND 3000.0 14.40
Chris Herndon 0.056 NYJ TE NE 2900.0 12.70
Rhett Ellison 0.048 NYG TE PHI 2500.0 11.70
Ryan Switzer 0.033 PIT WR DEN 3200.0 13.10
Miami Dolphins 0.029 MIA DST IND 2100.0 7.00
Rob Gronkowski 0.026 NE TE NYJ 5100.0 14.60
Jeff Driskel 0.024 CIN QB CLE 4300.0 17.10
Joe Mixon 0.024 CIN RB CLE 6800.0 22.50
Mike Evans 0.018 TB WR SF 7700.0 20.60
Isaiah McKenzie 0.009 BUF WR JAC 3000.0 9.90
Oakland Raiders 0.006 OAK DST BAL 2000.0 4.00
Seth Roberts 0.004 OAK WR BAL 3200.0 8.50
George Kittle 0.002 SF TE TB 6200.0 11.80
Corey Clement 0.002 PHI RB NYG 3000.0 11.60
Jacquizz Rodgers 0.000 TB RB SF 3200.0 10.20

McCaffrey was a unanimous top pick at RB.

Pro vs Herd

Here is the section where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 with everyone else (their rankings are heavily skewed to high volume players but it’s the best we have… for now).

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
pajamadaddy17 999960.0 2 499980.000000
draftre56 99505.0 150 663.366667
jackass1 39980.0 1 39980.000000
tossboss 24015.0 150 160.100000
drewpope90 19980.0 1 19980.000000
isaidetroit 14980.0 1 14980.000000
zaxt 9970.0 3 3323.333333
kwach -2710.0 150 -18.066667
giantsquid -2720.0 150 -18.133333
dahladino -2810.0 150 -18.733333
nitbuster -2820.0 150 -18.800000
donut604 -2820.0 150 -18.800000

Nobody who max entered lost all their shekels this week.

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
teejayortj 2340.0 150 15.600000
chipotleaddict 1355.0 150 9.033333
bdholla89 400.0 20 20.000000
papagates 350.0 150 2.333333
3rd_and_schlong 20.0 2 10.000000
ianj300 15.0 3 5.000000
fjbourne 0.0 5 0.000000
nolesman -2075.0 150 -13.833333
awesemo -2095.0 150 -13.966667
gosixersgo76 -2160.0 150 -14.400000
petteytheft89 -2485.0 150 -16.566667
chess_is_ok -2540.0 150 -16.933333

teejayortj? I guess we’ll have to ask him. Nice job my eye is now on you for a potential strategy article. To date, he has won $7,870 and has always max entered in the Milly.

Pro vs Herd Point Total Distribution

index Points_other Points_rg_top_50
count 172935.000000 3382.000000
mean 151.257309 152.656008
std 22.900705 24.553143
min 48.300000 85.540000
25% 135.380000 134.940000
50% 150.420000 152.100000
75% 166.340000 170.410000
max 252.820000 228.960000

The Rotogrinder’s Top 50 just barely outpaces the herd. Let’s look at the player utilization differences.

Pro vs Herd Player Pool Differences

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Marlon Mack 20 31 -11.0
D.J. Moore 17 27 -10.0
Julian Edelman 5 14 -9.0
T.Y. Hilton 15 23 -8.0
Josh Gordon <5% 11 -8.0
Nick Chubb 19 27 -8.0
Lamar Jackson 6 14 -8.0
Gus Edwards 13 21 -8.0
Mike Evans 10 18 -8.0
Matt Breida 20 27 -7.0
Cameron Brate 10 16 -6.0
Colts <5% 8 -5.0
Ravens 15 20 -5.0
Patriots 7 11 -4.0
Tyler Lockett 5 9 -4.0
Antonio Brown 11 15 -4.0
Bills 8 12 -4.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster <5% 6 -3.0
Sterling Shepard <5% 6 -3.0
Leonard Fournette 10 13 -3.0
Jaguars <5% 5 -2.0
Andrew Luck 11 13 -2.0
James White <5% 5 -2.0
Rob Gronkowski 6 8 -2.0
Odell Beckham Jr. 22 24 -2.0
Eric Ebron <5% 5 -2.0
Golden Tate 5 7 -2.0
Josh Adams 15 17 -2.0
Nick Mullens 5 6 -1.0
Adam Humphries 5 6 -1.0
Joe Mixon 11 12 -1.0
Alshon Jeffery 6 7 -1.0
Courtland Sutton 5 5 0.0
Ben Roethlisberger 7 6 1.0
Philip Rivers 6 5 1.0
Greg Olsen 6 5 1.0
Jarvis Landry 12 11 1.0
Cam Newton 11 9 2.0
Melvin Gordon III 5 <5% 2.0
George Kittle 30 28 2.0
LeSean McCoy 8 6 2.0
Larry Fitzgerald 5 <5% 2.0
Elijah McGuire 6 <5% 3.0
Kenny Stills 6 <5% 3.0
DeVante Parker 6 <5% 3.0
Saquon Barkley 26 22 4.0
Danny Amendola 8 <5% 5.0
Bengals 8 <5% 5.0
Carson Wentz 12 7 5.0
Jameis Winston 16 11 5.0
Emmanuel Sanders 22 17 5.0
Quincy Enunwa 10 <5% 7.0
Austin Ekeler 12 5 7.0
Chargers 17 10 7.0
Tyler Boyd 24 17 7.0
Jack Doyle 13 5 8.0
Kendrick Bourne 14 6 8.0
DeSean Jackson 11 <5% 8.0
Eagles 12 <5% 9.0
James Conner 28 19 9.0
David Johnson 13 <5% 10.0
Keenan Allen 25 15 10.0
Zach Ertz 29 17 12.0
Christian McCaffrey 34 18 16.0

The herd continues to favor recently good players more than the pro’s but overall the hits and misses by both sides roughly balanced out.

  • The herd was hot on D.J. Moore after his huge Week 11 performance.
  • The herd was hot on Gus Edwards

Big hit by the pro’s on Christian McCaffrey. While Nick Chubb continues to do well McCaffrey did oh so much better in Week 12, even considering the salary differences.

Programming Category (English)468x60

Big miss with Zach Ertz and surprising Kendrick Bourne utilization. I never heard of that guy before but I guess he was a high upside 49ers play.

Announcements

Last Recap of the NFL Season

Next week’s contest has $100 entry and I’d rather keep these recaps to the $20 or $10 entry. I’ll still store the contest results for analysis but no more recaps unless the entry goes down.

In the meantime I’m going to be focusing Sports Data Direct onto more DFS specific content. Subscribe to our mailing list to be notified on any updates.

I’ll also start working on some season long Milly Maker review articles.

Happy holidays and thanks for reading! If you want to get in touch about anything free to email me at matteo@sportsdatadirect.com, message me on Reddit, or comment here.

Mobile Apps Category (English)468x60

Subscribe to our mailing list

* indicates required



Sport Interests


Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

2 Responses

  1. Frank says:

    I really like your recaps . I started reading them around week 6. My DraftKings handle is fm1170 in case you want to check it out. I make all my lineups by hand . I’ve noticed the best possible lineups rarely have repeat players at WR position. I found that interesting .

    • Matteo Hoch says:

      Thanks Frank! Interesting about the repeat players at WR. I’ll take a closer look at that.

      I’m working on some analysis articles with the goal of finding actionable insights. It may be that the absolute best lineup doesn’t have many repeat WR’s because of the amount of upside at that position even for little known players at low salaries. But there could group of WR’s that repeat in the “better than winner” player pools. And those repeat players could be more predictable than the top lineup. But then again maybe not. We’ll have to see.

      And thanks for sharing your DK handle. I’m curious to see if optimizers/huge multi-entry is the way to go or making lineups by hand is a better strategy. Good luck this week. Will you enter 2-5 lineups in the $100 Milly Maker or switch to another contest?

      Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *