DraftKings Week 10 Recap

Every week DraftKings pays out big prizes to winners of their contests. Most sites focus on what people did, and pick apart the best lineup. I’m not going to do much of that here. Instead I’ll show you what was the best lineup possible and analyze the strategies of top DFS players.

Quick Summary

  • BearDown247 wins with 248.20 points
    • One entry, one big win
    • His chub for Chubb reached a satisfying climax in week 10
    • Beardown247 tries to predict breakout games and has had a good record
  • Players in the winning lineups are repeating
  • Bearsfan247 — a Milly Winner last year — continues to impress
    • He finished in 6th place
    • Started Taylor Gabriel who got 0 points
    • He’s won $11,780 on the year!
  • Papagates wins the Wildcat with a 253 point lineup
    • But didn’t play that lineup in the Milly Maker
  • The Milly Maker was quite inefficient this week. The top possible score was much higher than normal and the cash line was lower.
  • 149.72 to cash
  • Best possible lineup: 295.40 points and a salary of $48,400

BearDown247’s DFS Strategy

BearDown247's Winning Lineup 248.20

One lineup, one win in week 10. In order to better understand BearDown247 I took a look at all of his lineups entered over the season.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
week_num 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10
0 QB Deshaun Watson QB Carson Wentz QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Deshaun Watson QB Kirk Cousins QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Ben Roethlisberger QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Mitchell Trubisky
1 RB Adrian Peterson FLEX Jordan Howard RB Ezekiel Elliott FLEX Melvin Gordon III RB Marshawn Lynch RB Melvin Gordon III FLEX T.J. Yeldon FLEX Todd Gurley II RB David Johnson RB Tarik Cohen RB Adrian Peterson FLEX Todd Gurley II RB Nick Chubb
2 RB Dion Lewis RB Latavius Murray RB Sony Michel RB Jordan Howard RB Derrick Henry RB Jordan Howard RB Tarik Cohen RB Tarik Cohen RB Kerryon Johnson FLEX Nick Chubb RB Nick Chubb RB Christian McCaffrey RB Tarik Cohen
3 FLEX Carlos Hyde RB Corey Clement FLEX Odell Beckham Jr. RB Kerryon Johnson FLEX Austin Ekeler WR Julio Jones RB Ronald Jones II RB Nick Chubb FLEX Adrian Peterson RB Raheem Mostert WR Adam Thielen RB Tarik Cohen FLEX Aaron Jones
4 WR Antonio Brown WR Julio Jones WR Davante Adams WR Will Fuller V WR Adam Thielen WR Allen Robinson II WR Mike Evans WR Adam Thielen WR Antonio Brown WR Antonio Brown FLEX Julio Jones WR Taylor Gabriel WR Julio Jones
5 WR Stefon Diggs WR Nelson Agholor WR Allen Robinson II WR Allen Robinson II WR Stefon Diggs FLEX Amari Cooper WR Julio Jones WR DeSean Jackson WR Brandin Cooks WR Robert Woods WR Chris Godwin WR D.J. Moore WR Tyreek Hill
6 WR Jarvis Landry WR Allen Robinson II WR Taylor Gabriel WR Sterling Shepard WR Tyler Boyd WR Taylor Gabriel WR Allen Robinson II WR Taylor Gabriel WR Anthony Miller WR Taylor Gabriel WR Anthony Miller WR Courtland Sutton WR Allen Robinson II
7 TE David Njoku TE Eric Ebron TE O.J. Howard TE Trey Burton TE Zach Ertz TE C.J. Uzomah TE Trey Burton TE Trey Burton TE O.J. Howard TE Trey Burton TE Trey Burton TE Chris Herndon TE Trey Burton
8 DST Broncos DST Vikings DST Bears DST Bears DST Ravens DST Bears DST Bears DST Bears DST Bears DST Bears DST Bears DST Bears DST Bears
Points 128.6 88.2 191.46 165.6 141.34 156.24 142.14 182.82 149.48 107.6 127.7 124.1 248.2

My thoughts:

  • Seems to have a slight preference for RB’s who are runners than pass catchers.
  • Doesn’t follow many of the stacking rules
    • Offense and defense are often negatively correlated
  • Is definitely a Bears fan
    • Lots of Bears players and the Bears D in his lineups
    • He switched from Howard to Cohen in Week 6
    • I wonder what would happen if the Bears weren’t as good this year.
  • Tries to predict breakout games
    • Successfully saw Trubisky’s breakout game in week 4 vs the Bucs (6 TD’s that game)
    • Missed on Ronald Jones?
    • Successful chub for Chubb

Overall solid lineups and good confidence in riding out solid players. For my own lineups I’m going to look into how often players repeat being in the top lineup. At least 4 of his players have been seen a few times this year in better than the winning lineup player pools.

Pro Player Spotlight

Papagates doesn’t suck after all

Last week I said how Papagates might be garbage at DFS. But now he won the wildcat with a lineup scoring 253 points.

He didn’t play that lineup in the Milly Maker though. This suggests he views GPP’s as more of a lottery where he should get as many different entries as possible. Rather than boost his exposure to an individual good lineup he enters as many different ones as possible. The alternative argument would be something about the payout structures being different and that determines the difference but I seriously doubt it.

Low Cost Car Rentals. Starts from just $12 Per Day.

We’ll look at him more in a season long strategy article (probably early 2019).

Bearsfan247

Strategy profile coming soon (sooner than Papagates). In the meantime I’ll just analyze his week 10 performance.

Here’s Bearsfan247’s week 10 player utilization.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 RB Kareem Hunt 37 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 41 TE Travis Kelce 14 DST Rams 40
QB Mitchell Trubisky 9 RB Aaron Jones 34 WR Josh Gordon 19 TE Trey Burton 11 DST Chiefs 29
QB Philip Rivers 9 RB Todd Gurley II 25 WR Maurice Harris 18 TE David Njoku 11 DST Bears 5
QB Tom Brady 9 RB Melvin Gordon III 25 WR Keenan Allen 15 TE Jordan Reed 10 DST Jets 3
QB Jared Goff 8 RB Alvin Kamara 18 WR Davante Adams 14 TE O.J. Howard 8 DST Colts 3
QB Patrick Mahomes 8 RB Dion Lewis 17 WR Michael Thomas 13 TE Austin Hooper 7 DST Chargers 3
QB Matt Ryan 8 RB Jordan Howard 13 WR DeSean Jackson 13 TE Benjamin Watson 7 DST Patriots 3
QB Drew Brees 7 RB Leonard Fournette 10 WR Doug Baldwin 13 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 5 DST Redskins 2
QB Baker Mayfield 5 RB David Johnson 10 WR Mike Evans 13 TE Eric Ebron 3 DST Bills 2
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 4 RB Tevin Coleman 10 WR Julio Jones 12 TE Jimmy Graham 3 DST Falcons 2
QB Andrew Luck 3 RB Austin Ekeler 10 WR Robert Woods 11 TE Chris Herndon 3 DST Jaguars 2
QB Russell Wilson 3 RB Adrian Peterson 10 WR Adam Humphries 10 TE Jared Cook 3 DST Saints 1
QB Andy Dalton 3 RB Duke Johnson Jr. 8 WR Tyreek Hill 8 TE Vernon Davis 3 DST Cardinals 1
QB Alex Smith 2 RB Tarik Cohen 7 WR Jarvis Landry 8 TE Ed Dickson 2 DST Dolphins 1
QB Matthew Stafford 2 RB Mark Ingram 7 WR Tyler Lockett 8 TE Jack Doyle 1
QB Derek Carr 1 RB Nick Chubb 5 WR Cooper Kupp 8 TE Nick Vannett 1
QB Josh Rosen 1 RB Isaiah Crowell 5 WR Calvin Ridley 8 TE Mike Gesicki 1
QB Brock Osweiler 1 RB Joe Mixon 4 WR Julian Edelman 7 TE C.J. Uzomah 1
QB Marcus Mariota 1 RB Mike Davis 4 WR Kenny Golladay 6 TE Cameron Brate 1
RB Peyton Barber 3 WR DeVante Parker 6
RB Jalen Richard 1 WR Tyler Boyd 6
RB Elijah McGuire 1 WR Allen Robinson II 5
RB LeSean McCoy 1 WR Brandin Cooks 5
RB Marlon Mack 1 WR Tyrell Williams 5
RB Doug Martin 1 WR Taylor Gabriel 3
RB Kenyan Drake 1 WR T.Y. Hilton 3
RB James White 1 WR Corey Davis 3
WR John Ross 3
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 3
WR Mike Williams 3
WR Quincy Enunwa 3
WR Travis Benjamin 3
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3
WR Anthony Miller 2
WR Mohamed Sanu 2
WR Chris Godwin 1
WR Christian Kirk 1
WR Josh Doctson 1
WR Jordy Nelson 1
WR Kenny Stills 1
WR Equanimeous St. Brown 1
WR Chris Hogan 1
WR Antonio Callaway 1
WR Chester Rogers 1
WR Tre’Quan Smith 1
WR Cordarrelle Patterson 1

Holy crap. 125 players! That’s more than I’ve ever seen before.

Looks like he follows exposure limits.

  • QB at 10%
  • RB-WR-DST at 40% (we’ve seen this magic 40% number before with CONDIA and other players with larger player pools)
    • Except the 40% WR is normally a top tier guy like Julio Jones, not a riskier mid-range pick like Scantling.

A quick look at his lineup composition shows that he may be using some deliberate overlapping strategy. What I mean by that is he doesn’t always play a Bears WR like Anthony Miller with his QB Mitchell Trubisky. He seems to leave some lineups out where he uses a different QB. (We saw this same overlapping strategy on a smaller scale by Week 1 Mill Maker Winner Chalk)

It will take more investigating to see if this is a fluke or something deliberate. The player utilization he has seems to follow a distribution across position groups. It would be very interesting to look deeper at his composition of player lineups. Whether he uses a risky pick like Josh Doctson with other risky picks or if he matches them with the more stable picks like Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

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Bearsfan247’s Top Lineup had Taylor Gabriel

Bearsfan247’s top lineup hit on just about everything but had a huge miss in Taylor Gabriel.

Bearsfan247's Week 10 best lineup

Anthony Miller ended up being the second best Bears WR. Ouch, so close to another Milly Maker.

Bearsfan247 Strategy “First Take”

This type of strategy suggests to me that Bearsfan247 believes he can boil the slate into a few central themes. And then use this coupled with superior lineup construction in order to cover the potential Milly Making lineups with his 140 lineups. Granted that’s what most of us think we can do but Bearsfan247 does it with an extremely large pool of players. And appears to have a solid track record.

I’m excited to analyze this player more.

Best Lineup Possible: 295.40 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Mitchell Trubisky QB 39.0 5600.0 CHI
David Johnson RB 37.3 6800.0 ARI
Nick Chubb RB 38.9 5500.0 CLE
Tyreek Hill WR 35.7 7300.0 KC
Allen Robinson WR 34.3 5000.0 CHI
Brandin Cooks WR 29.9 6700.0 LAR
Eric Ebron TE 28.1 3500.0 IND
Aaron Jones FLEX 35.2 5000.0 GB
Washington Redskins DST 17.0 3000.0 WAS
295.4 48400.0

They don’t draw the headlines but the Washington Redskins were a very solid value play against the Bucs. I thought Fitzmagic would do poorly against a good D like the Redskins but not 2 interceptions and 3 total points for the team bad sheesh.

Allen Robinson looks to be catching his stride in Chicago. Bigger test coming against the Vikings than the depleted Lions secondary.

David Johnson is back to being a great player. The OC change in Arizona may have helped.

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Ebron had the craziest day with an insane amount of production on a few targets and his second rush of his career.

Mitchell Trubisky is playing as good if not better than 2017 Deshaun Watson

Be wary of the pundits and national media groupthink. Mitchell Trubisky needs more love. I watched the entire Seahawks-Packers game tonight and was shocked by how much more of the benefit of the doubt Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers get.


Look at that pass. A nice pass but a bit under thrown. The Packer’s ended up missing a FG on that drive. A better thrown ball would give them a touchdown or at least a better chance at a FG. Packer’s lost by 24-27 by the way.

Rodgers also missed a lot of easy short completions for first downs. Most notably the last 3rd down when he missed a wide open receiver. But Bill Barnwell disagrees?

Wilson missed 2 open receivers on different plays in the end zone.

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Sure both QB’s are good but had off games. Wilson gets the win but if Trubisky did that he’d be blasted — hell he’s already been blasted for just that.

In reality Trubisky’s season is looking pretty similar to Watson’s 2017 season but with much less hype (Watson 2017 games, Trubisky 2018 games — be sure to compare rushing yards).

Also, both players have made multiple appearances in the top or better than the winner’s lineups of the Milly Maker. Trubisky has even beaten Deshaun Watson’s highest DraftKings total ever… twice in 2018! Trubisky’s 46.46 points in week 4 are the most by a QB since 2015.

Pro vs Herd

Here is the section where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 with everyone else (their rankings are heavily skewed to high volume players but it’s the best we have… for now).

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
chipotleaddict 5550.0 150 37.000000
chess_is_ok 2770.0 150 18.466667
petteytheft89 2480.0 150 16.533333
papagates 2180.0 150 14.533333
skipbidder 1850.0 150 12.333333
awesemo -1800.0 150 -12.000000
moklovin -1820.0 150 -12.133333
jbcjbcjbc -2140.0 150 -14.266667
thatstunna -2330.0 150 -15.533333
araven52 -2610.0 150 -17.400000

Awesemo continues his lackluster Milly Maker performance. chess_is_ok, chipotleaddict, and papagates bounce back but not too much. (Papagates won the Wildcat though)

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
beardown247 999980.0 1 999980.000000
nsmusheer89 100080.0 2 50040.000000
agordon92 50770.0 45 1128.222222
golf2323 29980.0 1 29980.000000
echofivevictor 19980.0 1 19980.000000
bearsfan247 13980.0 140 99.857143
scottnjustbeatyou 10040.0 2 5020.000000
ramseydellinger -2720.0 150 -18.133333
powertron -2790.0 150 -18.600000
booboobohannon -2850.0 150 -19.000000
jimmy1430 -2930.0 150 -19.533333
jberk856 -2970.0 150 -19.800000

Go bears

Pro vs Herd Point Totals

index Points_other Points_rg_top_50
count 187320.000000 3695.000000
mean 131.286277 142.251995
std 24.435242 24.595365
min 4.000000 68.260000
25% 114.020000 124.180000
50% 130.020000 141.360000
75% 147.440000 158.480000
max 248.200000 229.600000

The herd (other above) got bested by the RG top 50 in a big way in week 10. The Pro’s may not have taken the milly but their average score was a whopping 11 points higher! Let’s look at some of the player utilization differences that contributed to this below.

Pro vs Herd Player Utilization

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Tyler Boyd 5 19 -14.0
Duke Johnson Jr. <5% 14 -11.0
Kareem Hunt 23 33 -10.0
Alvin Kamara 9 19 -10.0
Josh Gordon 13 23 -10.0
Tevin Coleman 9 18 -9.0
Bears <5% 11 -8.0
Adam Humphries <5% 10 -7.0
John Ross <5% 10 -7.0
Jets 12 18 -6.0
Trey Burton 8 14 -6.0
Calvin Ridley <5% 8 -5.0
Drew Brees <5% 8 -5.0
O.J. Howard <5% 8 -5.0
DeSean Jackson 7 12 -5.0
Benjamin Watson <5% 8 -5.0
Nick Chubb <5% 8 -5.0
Larry Fitzgerald <5% 7 -4.0
Tyrell Williams <5% 7 -4.0
Melvin Gordon III 21 25 -4.0
Cooper Kupp 5 8 -3.0
Tarik Cohen <5% 6 -3.0
Mitchell Trubisky <5% 6 -3.0
Patriots <5% 6 -3.0
Adrian Peterson <5% 6 -3.0
Jordan Howard <5% 6 -3.0
Marlon Mack <5% 6 -3.0
Chargers <5% 5 -2.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 13 15 -2.0
David Johnson 6 8 -2.0
Julian Edelman <5% 5 -2.0
Philip Rivers 9 11 -2.0
Patrick Mahomes 11 12 -1.0
Austin Hooper 9 9 0.0
Marcus Mariota 5 5 0.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick 11 10 1.0
Jarvis Landry 12 11 1.0
Mike Evans 12 11 1.0
Aaron Jones 14 13 1.0
Rams 15 14 1.0
Maurice Harris 17 16 1.0
Davante Adams 10 8 2.0
David Njoku 5 <5% 2.0
Packers 8 6 2.0
Vernon Davis 5 <5% 2.0
Matt Ryan 7 5 2.0
James White 7 5 2.0
Jimmy Graham 9 6 3.0
Saints 6 <5% 3.0
Mark Ingram 9 6 3.0
Jack Doyle 10 7 3.0
Travis Kelce 14 11 3.0
LeSean McCoy 6 <5% 3.0
Jared Goff 7 <5% 4.0
Kenny Golladay 7 <5% 4.0
Michael Thomas 26 22 4.0
Buccaneers 9 5 4.0
Marvin Jones Jr. 8 <5% 5.0
Julio Jones 16 11 5.0
Chiefs 14 8 6.0
Robert Woods 9 <5% 6.0
Aaron Rodgers 12 5 7.0
Jordan Reed 17 9 8.0
Falcons 12 <5% 9.0
Tyreek Hill 21 10 11.0
Keenan Allen 25 13 12.0
Corey Davis 23 9 14.0
Mike Davis 25 9 16.0
Dion Lewis 42 22 20.0
Todd Gurley II 42 20 22.0

A lot more differences than I’m used to seeing on here. Tyler Boyd at 19% owned?!? Did ya’ll forget that A.J. Green is out and a great WR? Also Corey Davis and Dion Lewis were pretty solid plays. Certainly more than Tyler Body.

Gurley played meh for such a high salary.

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Overall a surprising amount of differences between the two groups.

Misc

Bit of a tired week for me

It’s been a bit of a tired week for me. It’s tough working as a independent consultant, writing these recaps, and then spending hours making my own lineups to enter in the $1 entry contests. The rush on Sundays is great though.

Feel free to chime in on what you like most about these articles and what I can safely axe. I’d like to make these shorter and focus on different articles like the strategy series.

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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