DraftKings Week 10 Recap
Every week DraftKings pays out big prizes to winners of their contests. Most sites focus on what people did, and pick apart the best lineup. I’m not going to do much of that here. Instead I’ll show you what was the best lineup possible and analyze the strategies of top DFS players.
- BearDown247 wins with 248.20 points
- One entry, one big win
- His chub for Chubb reached a satisfying climax in week 10
- Or perhaps the combo of the chub and Mitchell’s love for kissing titties was just too much
- Beardown247 tries to predict breakout games and has had a good record
- Players in the winning lineups are repeating
- Bearsfan247 — a Milly Winner last year — continues to impress
- He finished in 6th place
- Started Taylor Gabriel who got 0 points
- He’s won $11,780 on the year!
- Papagates wins the Wildcat with a 253 point lineup
- But didn’t play that lineup in the Milly Maker
- The Milly Maker was quite inefficient this week. The top possible score was much higher than normal and the cash line was lower.
- 149.72 to cash
- Best possible lineup: 295.40 points and a salary of $48,400
BearDown247’s DFS Strategy
One lineup, one win in week 10. In order to better understand BearDown247 I took a look at all of his lineups entered over the season.
|0||QB Deshaun Watson||QB Carson Wentz||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Deshaun Watson||QB Kirk Cousins||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Ben Roethlisberger||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Mitchell Trubisky||QB Mitchell Trubisky|
|1||RB Adrian Peterson||FLEX Jordan Howard||RB Ezekiel Elliott||FLEX Melvin Gordon III||RB Marshawn Lynch||RB Melvin Gordon III||FLEX T.J. Yeldon||FLEX Todd Gurley II||RB David Johnson||RB Tarik Cohen||RB Adrian Peterson||FLEX Todd Gurley II||RB Nick Chubb|
|2||RB Dion Lewis||RB Latavius Murray||RB Sony Michel||RB Jordan Howard||RB Derrick Henry||RB Jordan Howard||RB Tarik Cohen||RB Tarik Cohen||RB Kerryon Johnson||FLEX Nick Chubb||RB Nick Chubb||RB Christian McCaffrey||RB Tarik Cohen|
|3||FLEX Carlos Hyde||RB Corey Clement||FLEX Odell Beckham Jr.||RB Kerryon Johnson||FLEX Austin Ekeler||WR Julio Jones||RB Ronald Jones II||RB Nick Chubb||FLEX Adrian Peterson||RB Raheem Mostert||WR Adam Thielen||RB Tarik Cohen||FLEX Aaron Jones|
|4||WR Antonio Brown||WR Julio Jones||WR Davante Adams||WR Will Fuller V||WR Adam Thielen||WR Allen Robinson II||WR Mike Evans||WR Adam Thielen||WR Antonio Brown||WR Antonio Brown||FLEX Julio Jones||WR Taylor Gabriel||WR Julio Jones|
|5||WR Stefon Diggs||WR Nelson Agholor||WR Allen Robinson II||WR Allen Robinson II||WR Stefon Diggs||FLEX Amari Cooper||WR Julio Jones||WR DeSean Jackson||WR Brandin Cooks||WR Robert Woods||WR Chris Godwin||WR D.J. Moore||WR Tyreek Hill|
|6||WR Jarvis Landry||WR Allen Robinson II||WR Taylor Gabriel||WR Sterling Shepard||WR Tyler Boyd||WR Taylor Gabriel||WR Allen Robinson II||WR Taylor Gabriel||WR Anthony Miller||WR Taylor Gabriel||WR Anthony Miller||WR Courtland Sutton||WR Allen Robinson II|
|7||TE David Njoku||TE Eric Ebron||TE O.J. Howard||TE Trey Burton||TE Zach Ertz||TE C.J. Uzomah||TE Trey Burton||TE Trey Burton||TE O.J. Howard||TE Trey Burton||TE Trey Burton||TE Chris Herndon||TE Trey Burton|
|8||DST Broncos||DST Vikings||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Ravens||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Bears||DST Bears|
- Seems to have a slight preference for RB’s who are runners than pass catchers.
- Doesn’t follow many of the stacking rules
- Offense and defense are often negatively correlated
- Is definitely a Bears fan
- Lots of Bears players and the Bears D in his lineups
- He switched from Howard to Cohen in Week 6
- I wonder what would happen if the Bears weren’t as good this year.
- Tries to predict breakout games
- Successfully saw Trubisky’s breakout game in week 4 vs the Bucs (6 TD’s that game)
- Missed on Ronald Jones?
- Successful chub for Chubb
Overall solid lineups and good confidence in riding out solid players. For my own lineups I’m going to look into how often players repeat being in the top lineup. At least 4 of his players have been seen a few times this year in better than the winning lineup player pools.
Pro Player Spotlight
Papagates doesn’t suck after all
Last week I said how Papagates might be garbage at DFS. But now he won the wildcat with a lineup scoring 253 points.
He didn’t play that lineup in the Milly Maker though. This suggests he views GPP’s as more of a lottery where he should get as many different entries as possible. Rather than boost his exposure to an individual good lineup he enters as many different ones as possible. The alternative argument would be something about the payout structures being different and that determines the difference but I seriously doubt it.
We’ll look at him more in a season long strategy article (probably early 2019).
Strategy profile coming soon (sooner than Papagates). In the meantime I’ll just analyze his week 10 performance.
Here’s Bearsfan247’s week 10 player utilization.
|QB||QB Percentage||RB||RB Percentage||WR||WR Percentage||TE||TE Percentage||DST||DST Percentage|
|QB Aaron Rodgers||10||RB Kareem Hunt||37||WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling||41||TE Travis Kelce||14||DST Rams||40|
|QB Mitchell Trubisky||9||RB Aaron Jones||34||WR Josh Gordon||19||TE Trey Burton||11||DST Chiefs||29|
|QB Philip Rivers||9||RB Todd Gurley II||25||WR Maurice Harris||18||TE David Njoku||11||DST Bears||5|
|QB Tom Brady||9||RB Melvin Gordon III||25||WR Keenan Allen||15||TE Jordan Reed||10||DST Jets||3|
|QB Jared Goff||8||RB Alvin Kamara||18||WR Davante Adams||14||TE O.J. Howard||8||DST Colts||3|
|QB Patrick Mahomes||8||RB Dion Lewis||17||WR Michael Thomas||13||TE Austin Hooper||7||DST Chargers||3|
|QB Matt Ryan||8||RB Jordan Howard||13||WR DeSean Jackson||13||TE Benjamin Watson||7||DST Patriots||3|
|QB Drew Brees||7||RB Leonard Fournette||10||WR Doug Baldwin||13||TE Ricky Seals-Jones||5||DST Redskins||2|
|QB Baker Mayfield||5||RB David Johnson||10||WR Mike Evans||13||TE Eric Ebron||3||DST Bills||2|
|QB Ryan Fitzpatrick||4||RB Tevin Coleman||10||WR Julio Jones||12||TE Jimmy Graham||3||DST Falcons||2|
|QB Andrew Luck||3||RB Austin Ekeler||10||WR Robert Woods||11||TE Chris Herndon||3||DST Jaguars||2|
|QB Russell Wilson||3||RB Adrian Peterson||10||WR Adam Humphries||10||TE Jared Cook||3||DST Saints||1|
|QB Andy Dalton||3||RB Duke Johnson Jr.||8||WR Tyreek Hill||8||TE Vernon Davis||3||DST Cardinals||1|
|QB Alex Smith||2||RB Tarik Cohen||7||WR Jarvis Landry||8||TE Ed Dickson||2||DST Dolphins||1|
|QB Matthew Stafford||2||RB Mark Ingram||7||WR Tyler Lockett||8||TE Jack Doyle||1|
|QB Derek Carr||1||RB Nick Chubb||5||WR Cooper Kupp||8||TE Nick Vannett||1|
|QB Josh Rosen||1||RB Isaiah Crowell||5||WR Calvin Ridley||8||TE Mike Gesicki||1|
|QB Brock Osweiler||1||RB Joe Mixon||4||WR Julian Edelman||7||TE C.J. Uzomah||1|
|QB Marcus Mariota||1||RB Mike Davis||4||WR Kenny Golladay||6||TE Cameron Brate||1|
|RB Peyton Barber||3||WR DeVante Parker||6|
|RB Jalen Richard||1||WR Tyler Boyd||6|
|RB Elijah McGuire||1||WR Allen Robinson II||5|
|RB LeSean McCoy||1||WR Brandin Cooks||5|
|RB Marlon Mack||1||WR Tyrell Williams||5|
|RB Doug Martin||1||WR Taylor Gabriel||3|
|RB Kenyan Drake||1||WR T.Y. Hilton||3|
|RB James White||1||WR Corey Davis||3|
|WR John Ross||3|
|WR Marvin Jones Jr.||3|
|WR Mike Williams||3|
|WR Quincy Enunwa||3|
|WR Travis Benjamin||3|
|WR Larry Fitzgerald||3|
|WR Anthony Miller||2|
|WR Mohamed Sanu||2|
|WR Chris Godwin||1|
|WR Christian Kirk||1|
|WR Josh Doctson||1|
|WR Jordy Nelson||1|
|WR Kenny Stills||1|
|WR Equanimeous St. Brown||1|
|WR Chris Hogan||1|
|WR Antonio Callaway||1|
|WR Chester Rogers||1|
|WR Tre’Quan Smith||1|
|WR Cordarrelle Patterson||1|
Holy crap. 125 players! That’s more than I’ve ever seen before.
Looks like he follows exposure limits.
- QB at 10%
- RB-WR-DST at 40% (we’ve seen this magic 40% number before with CONDIA and other players with larger player pools)
- Except the 40% WR is normally a top tier guy like Julio Jones, not a riskier mid-range pick like Scantling.
A quick look at his lineup composition shows that he may be using some deliberate overlapping strategy. What I mean by that is he doesn’t always play a Bears WR like Anthony Miller with his QB Mitchell Trubisky. He seems to leave some lineups out where he uses a different QB. (We saw this same overlapping strategy on a smaller scale by Week 1 Mill Maker Winner Chalk)
It will take more investigating to see if this is a fluke or something deliberate. The player utilization he has seems to follow a distribution across position groups. It would be very interesting to look deeper at his composition of player lineups. Whether he uses a risky pick like Josh Doctson with other risky picks or if he matches them with the more stable picks like Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Bearsfan247’s Top Lineup had Taylor Gabriel
Bearsfan247’s top lineup hit on just about everything but had a huge miss in Taylor Gabriel.
Anthony Miller ended up being the second best Bears WR. Ouch, so close to another Milly Maker.
Bearsfan247 Strategy “First Take”
This type of strategy suggests to me that Bearsfan247 believes he can boil the slate into a few central themes. And then use this coupled with superior lineup construction in order to cover the potential Milly Making lineups with his 140 lineups. Granted that’s what most of us think we can do but Bearsfan247 does it with an extremely large pool of players. And appears to have a solid track record.
I’m excited to analyze this player more.
Best Lineup Possible: 295.40 Points
They don’t draw the headlines but the Washington Redskins were a very solid value play against the Bucs. I thought Fitzmagic would do poorly against a good D like the Redskins but not 2 interceptions and 3 total points for the team bad sheesh.
Allen Robinson looks to be catching his stride in Chicago. Bigger test coming against the Vikings than the depleted Lions secondary.
David Johnson is back to being a great player. The OC change in Arizona may have helped.
Ebron had the craziest day with an insane amount of production on a few targets and his second rush of his career.
Mitchell Trubisky is playing as good if not better than 2017 Deshaun Watson
Be wary of the pundits and national media groupthink. Mitchell Trubisky needs more love. I watched the entire Seahawks-Packers game tonight and was shocked by how much more of the benefit of the doubt Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers get.
Davante Adams hit em with like 3 moves right off the jumppic.twitter.com/usb8t6WPUp
— Sports ReUp (@SportsReUp) November 16, 2018
Look at that pass. A nice pass but a bit under thrown. The Packer’s ended up missing a FG on that drive. A better thrown ball would give them a touchdown or at least a better chance at a FG. Packer’s lost by 24-27 by the way.
Rodgers also missed a lot of easy short completions for first downs. Most notably the last 3rd down when he missed a wide open receiver. But Bill Barnwell disagrees?
I must have watched a different game. https://t.co/A6QZsm2tOm
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) November 16, 2018
Wilson missed 2 open receivers on different plays in the end zone.
Russell Wilson missed his receiver on this play in the end zone pic.twitter.com/VdQnNAoYkU
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 16, 2018
Sure both QB’s are good but had off games. Wilson gets the win but if Trubisky did that he’d be blasted — hell he’s already been blasted for just that.
Also, both players have made multiple appearances in the top or better than the winner’s lineups of the Milly Maker. Trubisky has even beaten Deshaun Watson’s highest DraftKings total ever… twice in 2018! Trubisky’s 46.46 points in week 4 are the most by a QB since 2015.
Pro vs Herd
Here is the section where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 with everyone else (their rankings are heavily skewed to high volume players but it’s the best we have… for now).
Awesemo continues his lackluster Milly Maker performance. chess_is_ok, chipotleaddict, and papagates bounce back but not too much. (Papagates won the Wildcat though)
Pro vs Herd Point Totals
The herd (other above) got bested by the RG top 50 in a big way in week 10. The Pro’s may not have taken the milly but their average score was a whopping 11 points higher! Let’s look at some of the player utilization differences that contributed to this below.
Pro vs Herd Player Utilization
|lineup_hash||Percentage Pro||Percentage Herd||pro_favoritism|
|Duke Johnson Jr.||<5%||14||-11.0|
|Melvin Gordon III||21||25||-4.0|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||8||<5%||5.0|
|Todd Gurley II||42||20||22.0|
A lot more differences than I’m used to seeing on here. Tyler Boyd at 19% owned?!? Did ya’ll forget that A.J. Green is out and a great WR? Also Corey Davis and Dion Lewis were pretty solid plays. Certainly more than Tyler Body.
Gurley played meh for such a high salary.
Overall a surprising amount of differences between the two groups.
Bit of a tired week for me
It’s been a bit of a tired week for me. It’s tough working as a independent consultant, writing these recaps, and then spending hours making my own lineups to enter in the $1 entry contests. The rush on Sundays is great though.
Feel free to chime in on what you like most about these articles and what I can safely axe. I’d like to make these shorter and focus on different articles like the strategy series.