- jab76r wins with 245.42 points
- 21 lineups with 60 players
- He likely used a minimum exposure constraint
- The Dolphins D was better than the Bears
- Maurice Harris was better than the much talked about Adam Humphries
- You have to decide whether you can predict breakout games or would rather base your lineups off of past performance (Bales looks like a past performance player).
- Don’t read into ideal number of entries too quickly
- Strategy more important
- 165.68 to cash
- Best possible lineup: 284.04 points
jab76r Wins With 21 Lineups and 245.42 Points
jab76r entered 21 lineups in the Week 9 Milly Maker.
It wasn’t a very flukey win because his next highest lineup was 218.94 points.
jab76r Player Pool
He used 60 players across 21 lineups.
|QB||QB Percentage||RB||RB Percentage||WR||WR Percentage||TE||TE Percentage||DST||DST Percentage|
|QB Ryan Fitzpatrick||43||RB Alvin Kamara||57||WR Cooper Kupp||33||TE O.J. Howard||43||DST Chiefs||19|
|QB Patrick Mahomes||19||RB Kareem Hunt||52||WR Marvin Jones Jr.||33||TE Travis Kelce||19||DST Bills||19|
|QB Drew Brees||14||RB Christian McCaffrey||28||WR Michael Thomas||28||TE Trey Burton||14||DST Bears||19|
|QB Cam Newton||9||RB Melvin Gordon III||28||WR Courtland Sutton||28||TE Kyle Rudolph||14||DST Vikings||9|
|QB Jared Goff||5||RB Tarik Cohen||19||WR DeSean Jackson||28||TE Cameron Brate||9||DST Broncos||9|
|QB Mitchell Trubisky||5||RB Todd Gurley II||19||WR D.J. Moore||19||TE Benjamin Watson||5||DST Texans||9|
|QB Deshaun Watson||5||RB Isaiah Crowell||19||WR Brandin Cooks||19||TE Jeff Heuerman||5||DST Jets||9|
|RB Phillip Lindsay||9||WR Calvin Ridley||19||TE David Njoku||5||DST Steelers||5|
|RB Latavius Murray||9||WR Sammy Watkins||14||TE Greg Olsen||5|
|RB Adrian Peterson||9||WR Chris Godwin||14||TE Michael Roberts||5|
|RB Kenyan Drake||5||WR Laquon Treadwell||9||TE Vance McDonald||5|
|WR Taylor Gabriel||9|
|WR Mike Evans||9|
|WR Adam Humphries||5|
|WR Anthony Miller||5|
|WR Tyler Lockett||5|
|WR Keenan Allen||5|
|WR Tre’Quan Smith||5|
|WR Aldrick Robinson||5|
|WR David Moore||5|
|WR Antonio Brown||5|
|WR Kenny Golladay||5|
|WR DeAndre Hopkins||5|
The amount of players he had at 5% (1/21 lineups) is a bit higher than I’m used to seeing. I think he may have a min exposure rule in his optimizer or manual process.
- He took a chance on Jeff Heuerman having a breakout game — which he did
- No other predicted breakouts
- He didn’t do anything too fancy besides stacks but did always stack
- Stacked his QB with WR and TE in most lineups except the following
- Cam Newton with McCaffrey
- Jared Goff with Kamara and Michael Thomas
- No Gurley in this one — mobile QB’s typically have positive correlation with RB point totals
Jab76r Performance Other Weeks
Most weeks he enters 20 or 21 lineups. Week 4 was an exception, most likely due to the reduced entry fee of $10. But in Week 6 he kept it to 20 lineups instead of increasing. This suggests he views 20 lineups as an ideal number for his strategy.
He also hadn’t won in the Milly Maker until Week 9. And this is the type of performance you would expect from a good player. Lots of little losses and then a big win.
In my opinion the touts and famous players in the DFS community right now lose a bit more than you’d expect if they were truly great.
Best Lineup Possible: 284.04 Point
The best lineup possible in Week 9 used the Dolphins, not the Bears. And Maurice Harris was a better play than Adam Humphries.
Travis Kelce makes the list too because of the high number of cheap players that did well (Harris, Coleman, Humphries).
Pro Player Spotlight
No player spotlight this week. I’m on vacation and I focused more on the miscellaneous section.
Pro vs Herd
Here is the section where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 with everyone else (their rankings are heavily skewed to high volume players but it’s the best we have… for now).
Compare their rankings with Milly Maker performance
araven52 and teejayortj look interesting. I will add them to the list of players to review.
Week 9 Pro Leaderboard
Lots of sixers fans this week
Also, I think papagates may be garbage at DFS. We’ll have to look at him more to know for sure.
Week 9 Herd Leaderboard
Ending continues to do terrible.
Pro vs Herd Point Totals
The RotoGrinder’s Top 50 lost to the herd this week
Pro vs Herd Player Utilization Comparison
|lineup_hash||Percentage Pro||Percentage Herd||pro_favoritism|
|Melvin Gordon III||7||<5%||4.0|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||16||9||7.0|
|Todd Gurley II||34||26||8.0|
- Shockingly Phillip Lindsay saw a lot of Pro love against a well ranked Texans run defense.
- D.J. Moore was a very popular pick
- Both the pro’s and herd thought that he would benefit the most from a big Cam Newton day
- Probably because it appeared Curtis Samuel was being usurped by the rookie D.J. Moore but that narrative proved false.
- Todd Gurley managed to have more usage at 9800 than Kamara at 7300.
- The Saints are first in yards allowed against the run
- 31st against the pass.
How Many Lineups Should You Enter?
Many people think that in multi-entry you should max enter if you can afford it. There was some interesting commentary you should read in /r/dfsports.
Also, Samsondfstruth posts payouts versus number of lineups entered and the 50-99 lineups group does well but this can give you confusing results.
MM breakdown by entry Group for the 2018 season (9 weeks). pic.twitter.com/DS62VfPZzt
— Samson (@Samsondfstruth) November 5, 2018
I would caution you from making any inferences on this data beyond that it is possible to win with any number of lineups at this time. And this is why.
Take a look at another grouping of entries.
|number of entries|
Here I used different number of entry groupings and you could draw a different conclusion from Samson’s post. The 25-49 group has a better percent of winnings compared to their percent of paid.
But as you increase the number of lineups in a group the expected value of payouts goes way down because of the rake.
|number of entries|
It would be better to look at what percentage of players make money in each group rather than combining everyone because
- more players is negative EV
- Wins are very bursty
- This skews the payout by a large amount in a small group that has the Milly Making lineup in it
- Number of entry groupings are a poor proxy to strategy
- CONDIA would manually enter 150 lineups!
- Some players use an optimizer for 1 lineup
Also, just changing the number of lineups you enter with disregard to strategy is not a great idea. You need to know what strategies are used successfully by different players at different bankrolls. And apply a strategy that works with your bankroll. Don’t adjust your bankroll to match some bad statistical inference.
I’ll build on this idea more through my rankings system.
Rankings Coming Soon
Ratings are hard because of the insane payout structure. One first place win makes 333 weeks of max entering in the Milly worth it.
Still you’d expect the better players to come close sometimes. Here’s what I’m thinking right now. Feel free to comment with your ideas
- Should look at weekly snapshots only
- Should be comparative within the weeks e.g. compare player’s point totals to the average for that week rather than a season long average
- Comparisons should bounded in such a way that follows Pareto distributions
- Composed of points, variance, volume
- Consist only of players that have played in majority of contests
- this implies they think they may have an edge rather than a one and done player.
- Should be scaled to not overcompensate for volume yet still factor in volume in case of similar players. perhaps use payout/entry, n_entries and a payout/week
- one-dimensional player ratings to start