DraftKings Week 7 Recap

bassinmatt's winning lineup 228.62 points

Quick Summary

  • Bassinmatt wins with 228.62 points.
    • He only enters $20/week in the Milly Maker
  • Bales continues riskier playstyle
    • Went heavy on Lions offense and didn’t see Michael Roberts coming
  • Last week’s winner does well again
    • Davematt123 may use a tiered approach to lineup construction
  • 150.90 to cash
  • Best possible lineup: 259.22 points

Bassinmatt’s Winning Lineup

bassinmatt's winning lineup 228.62 points

One lineup big payday.

Most of his players were very risky with maybe Alshon Jeffery, Brandin Cooks, and the Rams D being the picks with the highest floor.

I took a look at his past entries in the Milly maker and he enters up to $20 worth (week 4 and 6 were $10 entry)

week_num 1 2 4 4 5 6 6 7
QB Ben Roethlisberger QB Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Matt Ryan QB Eli Manning QB Carson Wentz QB Mitchell Trubisky QB Baker Mayfield QB Mitchell Trubisky
RB Alvin Kamara RB James Conner RB Ezekiel Elliott RB Jordan Howard RB David Johnson RB James Conner FLEX Ezekiel Elliott RB Tarik Cohen
FLEX LeSean McCoy RB Kareem Hunt RB Tevin Coleman RB Marshawn Lynch RB Kareem Hunt RB Tarik Cohen RB T.J. Yeldon RB Latavius Murray
RB Alex Collins WR Mike Evans WR A.J. Green WR A.J. Green FLEX T.J. Yeldon FLEX Julio Jones RB Marshawn Lynch WR Jarvis Landry
WR A.J. Green WR Nelson Agholor FLEX Allen Robinson II WR Kenny Stills WR Brandin Cooks WR JuJu Smith-Schuster WR A.J. Green WR Brandin Cooks
WR Devin Funchess WR Kenny Stills WR Keelan Cole WR Nelson Agholor WR Stefon Diggs WR DeSean Jackson WR Doug Baldwin FLEX Alshon Jeffery
WR Keelan Cole FLEX Keelan Cole WR Sterling Shepard FLEX Danny Amendola WR Alshon Jeffery WR Taylor Gabriel WR Keelan Cole WR John Brown
TE Jack Doyle TE Jack Doyle TE Trey Burton TE Rob Gronkowski TE Jesse James TE Austin Hooper TE Greg Olsen TE Trey Burton
DST Steelers DST Chargers DST Bears DST Bears DST Ravens DST Bears DST Bears DST Rams
Points 132.8 160.08 167.86 98.4 131.24 197.14 106.42 228.62

He stays away from Gurley and focuses on cheap QB’s. Some game stacks, doesn’t always stack his QB. Most of his players are midrange or cheaper with high upside.

John Brown stands out to me as an interesting pick. Crabtree just came off a great game and John Brown didn’t. I think it came down to game flow and the Ravens-Saints game being much closer than the Ravens shutout against the Titans.

Best Lineup Possible: 259.22

opp_name player_name position score salary team_name
NE Mitchell Trubisky QB 36.42 5600.0 CHI
BUF Marlon Mack RB 34.90 4400.0 IND
CHI James White RB 29.70 6900.0 NE
NO John Brown WR 29.40 5700.0 BAL
NYJ Adam Thielen WR 29.00 8600.0 MIN
DET Danny Amendola WR 20.40 3900.0 MIA
CAR Zach Ertz TE 25.80 7100.0 PHI
NE Trey Burton FLEX 30.60 4300.0 CHI
SF Los Angeles Rams DST 23.00 3500.0 LAR
259.22 50000.0

It’s remarkable that this lineup wasn’t played. Mitchell Trubisky and Adam Thielen show up yet again. The rest were pretty chalky.

Sidenote: I’m changing up how I generate lineups. Using a optimization solver is much, much faster. So this week I don’t have a better than winner player pool to share but I hope to have one back soon.

DFS Player Spotlight

Out of all the players we typically track only last week’s winner, davematt123, made money.

Player Number of Lineups Paid Won win/entry
davematt123 28 560 380.0 0.678571
Slaytations 146 2920 -1310.0 -0.448630
Al_Smizzle 150 3000 -1660.0 -0.553333
csuram88 10 200 -130.0 -0.650000
ending 150 3000 -2120.0 -0.706667
Awesemo 150 3000 -2330.0 -0.776667
chess_is_ok 150 3000 -2530.0 -0.843333
petrgibbons 150 3000 -2770.0 -0.923333
scout326 150 3000 -2790.0 -0.930000
chipotleaddict 150 3000 -2970.0 -0.990000
bales 11 220 -220.0 -1.000000
tommyg1979 7 140 -140.0 -1.000000
mallen21 150 3000 -3000.0 -1.000000
saahilsud 0 0 0.0 NaN
Nickelback4Lyfe 0 0 0.0 NaN

We’ll start by looking at Jonathan Bales and then cover davematt123.

Jonathan Bales loses on all of his entries

We went in depth on Bales last week because of his interesting play-style using quite the risk. But it didn’t pan out well in Week 7.

His top lineup was an underwhelming 135.18 points and his lowest was 87.28.

Points
count 11.000000
mean 112.483635
std 17.619651
min 87.280000
25% 97.210000
50% 114.600000
75% 126.630000
max 135.180000

Not a great spread from the highest lineup to the lowest lineup.

Bales Won’t Max Enter the Milly Maker

We’ve seen Bales consistently enter ~20 or even less lineups week in and week out.

With the Milly Maker being back to $20 this week  he entered the same number of entries as last week, 11. This suggests he doesn’t see much value beyond his 11 entries because you’d think he has to have the bankroll for it. My guess is he views the Milly Maker as more of a lottery. The important thing is to get your tickets and craft some of the riskiest and highest upside lineups. But there’s only so much out there that he views as risk worthy.

If he were to duplicate lineups and/or pay a consistent amount each week regardless of the entry fee changes then I’d have a different conclusion

Bales Player pool

Here’s his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matthew Stafford 36 RB Alvin Kamara 54 WR Golden Tate 45 TE Eric Ebron 45 DST Eagles 36
QB Jared Goff 9 RB Kerryon Johnson 45 WR Josh Gordon 45 TE David Njoku 27 DST Jaguars 18
QB Joe Flacco 9 RB LeSean McCoy 36 WR Kenny Golladay 36 TE George Kittle 9 DST Colts 9
QB Jameis Winston 9 RB Tarik Cohen 27 WR Jermaine Kearse 27 TE Greg Olsen 9 DST Lions 9
QB Baker Mayfield 9 RB Todd Gurley II 27 WR Jarvis Landry 27 TE Jordan Reed 9 DST Redskins 9
QB C.J. Beathard 9 RB Peyton Barber 27 WR Michael Crabtree 18 DST Buccaneers 9
QB Mitchell Trubisky 9 RB Ezekiel Elliott 18 WR Mike Evans 18 DST Cowboys 9
QB Andrew Luck 9 RB Christian McCaffrey 9 WR Chris Godwin 18
RB Nyheim Hines 9 WR Brandin Cooks 9
RB Nick Chubb 9 WR Marquise Goodwin 9
WR Michael Thomas 9
WR Willie Snead IV 9
WR Antonio Callaway 9
WR Allen Robinson II 9
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 9
WR Taylor Gabriel 9
WR T.Y. Hilton 9
WR Kelvin Benjamin 9
WR Albert Wilson 9

Big hit on Kerryon Johnson, unfortunate LeSean McCoy injury. He missed the boat with John Brown but I think that’s a great example of how Bales is putting a premium on past performance rather than projects. Crabtree has had some monster games in his career and is historically a better DFS receiver.

Personally I’m surprised he didn’t go a Duke Johnson Jr. Lineup considering all the Nick Chubb hype.

Also, he went pretty heavy on the Detroit Lions offense. Here’s his top 5 triples

Percentage Player
27 QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kerryon Johnson, WR Golden Tate
27 QB Matthew Stafford, TE Eric Ebron, WR Golden Tate
27 TE Eric Ebron, WR Josh Gordon, WR Kenny Golladay
27 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Golden Tate, WR Kenny Golladay
27 RB Alvin Kamara, RB LeSean McCoy, WR Golden Tate

I bet he was pissed when Michael Roberts caught those 2 touchdowns last week instead of one of his guys.

Overall, interesting strategy. If it pays off, I bet it pays big. Lot’s of misses along the way though.

Davematt123 May Use Tiers

Davematt123 won the Milly Maker last week but didn’t win much in Week 7. He took home $380 instead of $1,000,000.
Here’s summary stat’s on his lineups

Points
count 28.000000
mean 159.139286
std 19.209102
min 123.700000
25% 147.350000
50% 159.450000
75% 172.590000
max 191.820000

Top lineup of 191.82 and a low of 123.70. Not big money but still pretty decent considering it was ~150 to cash.

Take a look at his player pool.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Mitchell Trubisky 32 RB Todd Gurley II 71 WR Taylor Gabriel 57 TE David Njoku 64 DST Colts 53
QB Brock Osweiler 18 RB Tarik Cohen 68 WR Robert Woods 50 TE O.J. Howard 25 DST Rams 21
QB Joe Flacco 11 RB Latavius Murray 32 WR Adam Thielen 39 TE George Kittle 11 DST Bills 14
QB Baker Mayfield 7 RB Kerryon Johnson 25 WR John Brown 25 TE Trey Burton 7 DST Cowboys 7
QB Jared Goff 7 RB Duke Johnson Jr. 7 WR Albert Wilson 25 DST Vikings 4
QB Derek Anderson 7 RB Ezekiel Elliott 7 WR Jarvis Landry 25
QB Kirk Cousins 4 RB Corey Clement 4 WR Robby Anderson 25
QB Carson Wentz 4 RB Christian McCaffrey 4 WR Jermaine Kearse 18
QB Matthew Stafford 4 WR Golden Tate 18
QB Jameis Winston 4 WR Stefon Diggs 14
QB Cam Newton 4 WR Brandin Cooks 14
WR Alshon Jeffery 11
WR Devin Funchess 11
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 7
WR Willie Snead IV 7
WR Kenny Golladay 7
WR Keke Coutee 7
WR Michael Crabtree 4
WR Kenny Stills 4
WR DeSean Jackson 4
WR Chester Rogers 4

It looks like Davematt123 might approach players in terms of tiers. Take a look at his Week 6 Player Pool below

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Jameis Winston 26 RB Tevin Coleman 47 WR Mohamed Sanu 52 TE Austin Hooper 67 DST Ravens 55
QB Matt Ryan 17 RB James Conner 23 WR Keke Coutee 52 TE Cameron Brate 14 DST Panthers 20
QB Deshaun Watson 11 RB T.J. Yeldon 20 WR DeSean Jackson 35 TE Eric Ebron 14 DST Texans 8
QB Ben Roethlisberger 8 RB Ezekiel Elliott 20 WR Calvin Ridley 32 TE David Njoku 5 DST Bears 8
QB Kirk Cousins 5 RB Tarik Cohen 17 WR Julio Jones 29 DST Rams 5
QB Joe Flacco 5 RB Marshawn Lynch 17 WR Tyler Boyd 23
QB Jared Goff 5 RB Melvin Gordon III 14 WR Mike Evans 23
QB Baker Mayfield 5 RB Todd Gurley II 14 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 20
QB Brock Osweiler 3 RB David Johnson 11 WR Jarvis Landry 17
QB Andy Dalton 3 RB Phillip Lindsay 11 WR Chester Rogers 11
QB Mitchell Trubisky 3 RB Christian McCaffrey 5 WR Ryan Grant 11
QB Andrew Luck 3 RB Mike Davis 3 WR Will Fuller V 11
RB Joe Mixon 3 WR Adam Thielen 8
WR John Brown 8
WR A.J. Green 8
WR Albert Wilson 5
WR Stefon Diggs 5
WR Antonio Brown 5
WR Jordy Nelson 3
WR Tyler Lockett 3
WR Antonio Callaway 3
WR Robert Woods 3
WR Cooper Kupp 3
WR Keenan Allen 3

4 TE’s, 5 DST’s, with a clear cut preference or two at each position.

Pretty interesting if he does approach things with tiers. I haven’t seen someone do that before. CONDIA would do something like that but he would do a much smoother progressions and a cap of around 40%. Maybe Davematt123 isn’t prepared to spend as much yet to smooth it out with more entries.

High Volume Players vs Everyone Else

In light of the shoddyness of Rotogrinder’s DraftKing’s rankings, I’m no longer calling this “Pro vs Herd”. The rankings are too skewed towards high volume players over players that actual make money entering lineups.

I’m working to create my own rankings but for now this will do.

For new readers this is where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 to everyone else

High Volume Player Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
erocksya2 0.0 3 0.000000
hoop2410 -20.0 1 -20.000000
birdwings -30.0 3 -10.000000
3rd_and_schlong -40.0 2 -20.000000
shocae -40.0 2 -20.000000
papagates -2890.0 150 -19.266667
skipbidder -2940.0 150 -19.600000
araven52 -2940.0 150 -19.600000
chipotleaddict -2970.0 150 -19.800000
mrnastytime91 -3000.0 150 -20.000000

No big winners and as a group they lost $740,80

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
0 -26330.0 4775.0 -238.565738

Everyone Else Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
bassinmatt 999980.0 1 999980.000000
rfar45 99290.0 42 2364.047619
stillers4life 49980.0 1 49980.000000
steevah 30310.0 2 15155.000000
mypcdepot 19980.0 3 6660.000000
mcampb05 -2970.0 150 -19.800000
dr.karl -3000.0 150 -20.000000
ramseydellinger -3000.0 150 -20.000000
mallen21 -3000.0 150 -20.000000
tossboss -3000.0 150 -20.000000

Mallen21, a two time winner in 2016, disappoints with all of his 150 lineups out of the money. But he is still in the money on the Milly Maker thanks largely due to his Week 2 performance.

paid won
week_num
1 3000.0 -450.0
2 3000.0 11520.0
3 3000.0 -1950.0
4 1500.0 -840.0
5 3000.0 4695.0
6 1500.0 -755.0
7 3000.0 -3000.0
Totals 18000.0 9220.0

High Volume vs Everyone Else Comparison

Rough week for the the high volume “pros”

index Points_herd Points_pro
count 186260.000000 4775.000000
mean 133.815039 124.726044
std 22.825237 21.519532
min 31.800000 55.040000
25% 117.980000 109.300000
50% 133.460000 124.460000
75% 149.320000 139.770000
max 228.620000 200.120000

Pro’s got beat by 9 points on average by the “herd”.

Here’s player utilization comparisons.

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Adam Thielen 16 35 -19.0
Todd Gurley II 48 58 -10.0
Taylor Gabriel 14 23 -9.0
Alshon Jeffery <5% 12 -9.0
O.J. Howard <5% 12 -9.0
Tarik Cohen 15 22 -7.0
John Brown 5 11 -6.0
Stefon Diggs 5 11 -6.0
Bills 5 10 -5.0
Mitchell Trubisky <5% 8 -5.0
Texans <5% 8 -5.0
Rams <5% 7 -4.0
Alvin Kamara <5% 7 -4.0
David Njoku 30 34 -4.0
Jared Goff 10 13 -3.0
Trey Burton <5% 6 -3.0
DeSean Jackson <5% 6 -3.0
Chris Godwin <5% 5 -2.0
James White <5% 5 -2.0
Devin Funchess <5% 5 -2.0
Eric Ebron 6 8 -2.0
Joe Flacco 7 9 -2.0
Albert Wilson <5% 5 -2.0
Willie Snead IV 12 14 -2.0
Carson Wentz <5% 5 -2.0
Nick Chubb 28 30 -2.0
Colts 10 11 -1.0
Marquise Goodwin 10 11 -1.0
Baker Mayfield 9 10 -1.0
Zach Ertz 12 13 -1.0
Jarvis Landry 11 11 0.0
T.Y. Hilton 5 5 0.0
Kenyan Drake 5 5 0.0
Jets 6 6 0.0
Latavius Murray 7 7 0.0
Kirk Cousins 6 6 0.0
Duke Johnson Jr. 9 9 0.0
Josh Gordon 11 11 0.0
Julian Edelman 7 6 1.0
Panthers 5 <5% 2.0
Tom Brady 5 <5% 2.0
Kyle Rudolph 5 <5% 2.0
Michael Crabtree 13 11 2.0
Jaguars 8 6 2.0
LeSean McCoy 12 10 2.0
Peyton Barber 9 7 2.0
Marvin Jones Jr. 6 <5% 3.0
C.J. Beathard 8 5 3.0
T.J. Yeldon 6 <5% 3.0
Brandin Cooks 14 11 3.0
Jermaine Kearse 18 14 4.0
Mike Evans 12 7 5.0
Robert Woods 35 29 6.0
Lions 16 10 6.0
Eagles 11 5 6.0
Matthew Stafford 9 <5% 6.0
George Kittle 12 6 6.0
Kenny Golladay 13 7 6.0
Christian McCaffrey 15 9 6.0
Buccaneers 10 <5% 7.0
Kerryon Johnson 22 15 7.0
Jameis Winston 12 5 7.0
Ezekiel Elliott 33 24 9.0
Michael Thomas 15 6 9.0
DeAndre Hopkins 18 6 12.0
Golden Tate 25 9 16.0
Jordan Reed 20 <5% 17.0

The pro’s hit on Kerryon Johnson but did pretty badly with most other picks. Jordan Reed ouch. Too many narratives and analysis. If you just stick with Thielen and Gurley in 2018 you’d be doing great. That’s what most people are doing and frankly it’s unbelievable how well both those players have been so far. It’s gotta stop at some point right??

Misc/Announcements

Have something you’d like me to look at?

Send me a message before Wednesday nights on Reddit, Twitter, or email me at matteo@sportsdatadirect.com. Or just leave a comment on this blog somewhere.

Strength of Schedule Stats

Surprised Nick Chubb didn’t explode for more last week?  I’ve created a strength of schedule (SOS) based team stat categories with the goal of the ranks approach the true ranks quicker than a pure average approach.

The Buc’s entered the game with the 5th best rush defense both strength of schedule adjusted and average. Essentially games when a QB play a terrible pass defense should help less than against a good pass D and vice versa.

Webapp and writeup coming soon to a computer near you

More Content Coming

I’m working on a few things

  • Better DraftKings rankings than Rotogrinder’s volume based metrics
  • Automated recaps for the NBA season
    • There’s no way I can write recaps consistently but I’m toying with the idea of creating some automated tool or article
  • Strength of Schedule metrics
  • Sports Analytics Course

That’s more of a laundry list but it’s the things on my mind right. Most are a ways away. Feel free to chime in with ideas of your own.

 

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