DraftKings Week 6 Recap

Quick Summary

  • Davematt123’s wins with 245.90 points.
    • He took a chance on a Brock Osweiler Albert Wilson stack
  • 156.98 to cash
  • Bales used a very anti-fragile strategy
  • Best possible lineup: 288.8 points
    • Todd Gurley was used in 97.5% of lineups that outperformed Davematt123
    • This was in spite of his $10,000 salary on DraftKings

Davematt123's Winning Lineup 245.90

Davematt123 Wins with 245.90 Points

Davematt, if that is his real name, took a chance on Brock Osweiler and won real big.

He only used Brock in one lineup out of 34…. If not for that one lineup he would have lost like the rest of us.

Davematt123’s Player Pool

Brock wasn’t unique. Davematt123 also took Andrew Luck, Mitchell Trubisky, and Andy Dalton in one lineup each.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Jameis Winston 26 RB Tevin Coleman 47 WR Mohamed Sanu 52 TE Austin Hooper 67 DST Ravens 55
QB Matt Ryan 17 RB James Conner 23 WR Keke Coutee 52 TE Cameron Brate 14 DST Panthers 20
QB Deshaun Watson 11 RB T.J. Yeldon 20 WR DeSean Jackson 35 TE Eric Ebron 14 DST Texans 8
QB Ben Roethlisberger 8 RB Ezekiel Elliott 20 WR Calvin Ridley 32 TE David Njoku 5 DST Bears 8
QB Kirk Cousins 5 RB Tarik Cohen 17 WR Julio Jones 29 DST Rams 5
QB Joe Flacco 5 RB Marshawn Lynch 17 WR Tyler Boyd 23
QB Jared Goff 5 RB Melvin Gordon III 14 WR Mike Evans 23
QB Baker Mayfield 5 RB Todd Gurley II 14 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 20
QB Brock Osweiler 3 RB David Johnson 11 WR Jarvis Landry 17
QB Andy Dalton 3 RB Phillip Lindsay 11 WR Chester Rogers 11
QB Mitchell Trubisky 3 RB Christian McCaffrey 5 WR Ryan Grant 11
QB Andrew Luck 3 RB Mike Davis 3 WR Will Fuller V 11
RB Joe Mixon 3 WR Adam Thielen 8
WR John Brown 8
WR A.J. Green 8
WR Albert Wilson 5
WR Stefon Diggs 5
WR Antonio Brown 5
WR Jordy Nelson 3
WR Tyler Lockett 3
WR Antonio Callaway 3
WR Robert Woods 3
WR Cooper Kupp 3
WR Keenan Allen 3

The Bucs-Falcons matchup looks like his favorite game of the week. But he was quite indecisive at QB.

A lot of QB’s had enticing matchups but rather than pick a few he went with 12!

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As for his stacks, most of his QB’s included a stack in each lineup with Mitchell Trubisky being the only exception we saw. I’d guess he made these lineups with an optimizer with exposure settings and a touch of manual entry.

Best Lineup Possible: 288.8 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Jameis Winston QB 35.9 5800.0 TB
Melvin Gordon RB 38.0 8200.0 LAC
Todd Gurley RB 39.5 10000.0 LAR
Adam Thielen WR 32.3 8500.0 MIN
Cole Beasley WR 34.1 3200.0 DAL
Albert Wilson WR 36.0 3800.0 MIA
Austin Hooper TE 22.1 3500.0 ATL
Tyrell Williams FLEX 29.9 3700.0 LAC
Baltimore Ravens DST 21.0 2800.0 BAL
288.8 49500.0

Winston, not Brock Osweiler at 31 points, was the the QB of choice last week.

The player pool of the lineups that outperformed the winner is shown below.

Name Percentage
Todd Gurley 0.975
Albert Wilson 0.769
Cole Beasley 0.713
Tyrell Williams 0.544
Melvin Gordon 0.512
Baltimore Ravens 0.463
Jameis Winston 0.420
Adam Thielen 0.312
Seattle Seahawks 0.305
Brock Osweiler 0.305
Austin Hooper 0.301
Mitchell Trubisky 0.271
Latavius Murray 0.265
Emmanuel Sanders 0.262
James Conner 0.260
Arizona Cardinals 0.232
Tarik Cohen 0.224
Julio Jones 0.202
David Njoku 0.195
Peyton Barber 0.174
Nick O’Leary 0.155
Vernon Davis 0.124
Damion Ratley 0.123
Vance McDonald 0.116
Eric Ebron 0.109
Marcus Johnson 0.106
Alex Collins 0.103
Ezekiel Elliott 0.101
Frank Gore 0.094
Joe Mixon 0.058
Jalen Richard 0.056
Ito Smith 0.042
Justin Hardy 0.032
Maurice Harris 0.024
Chris Moore 0.021
Kapri Bibbs 0.011
Justin Jackson 0.010
Jamaal Charles 0.009
Nathan Peterman 0.004

Jamaal Charles and Nathan Peterman?? Yep! These players still scored points but you could have won $1MM with them.

Winston was the top QB and the Raven’s the top D.

The Pro’s

Overall it was a terrible week for most pro’s we look at.

Player Number of Lineups Paid Won
saahilsud 0 0 0.0
bales 11 110 15.0
csuram88 150 1500 -750.0
tommyg1979 3 30 -30.0
chipotleaddict 150 1500 -1455.0
Al_Smizzle 150 1500 -1055.0
scout326 150 1500 -1020.0
ending 150 1500 -1485.0
chess_is_ok 150 1500 -860.0
petrgibbons 150 1500 -725.0

Bales entered a meager 11 entries for $110. We’ll look at him because he got impressive spread from his best lineup to worst. And he did it with a new strategy we haven’t seen from anyone before.

Bales

I said last week that Bales is a big believer in anti fragile approaches to daily fantasy sports, specifically with his barbell approach. Sure enough Week 6 is a perfect example of it.

Just take a look at his point totalsBales Point Totals

And here’s what a barbell looks like, for those bro’s that don’t even lift… bro.

Barbell

Notice how the middle is skinny and the outsides are fat.

The goal with a barbell approach is to have a wide skinny middle and big weights on the end. Just like a barbell.

The reason you go for this is because of the payoff structure of contests like the DraftKings Milly Maker. Just take a look

Week 6 Milly Maker Payoffs

Now imagine fitting your barbell on that. Some big losses but one big gain and it’s all worth it.

If you’ve been following this blog you’ll remember that most pro’s have a point distribution with positive asymmetry. Like Bales’ from last weekBales' Point Distribution

That can happen when you do a barbell approach to player selection and it pays off a little bit more evenly than expected. But in Week 6 Bales had some big hits and misses on 11 lineups.

Here’s how Bales did it

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Cam Newton 27 RB Joe Mixon 36 WR Michael Crabtree 36 TE Jordan Reed 36 DST Rams 27
QB Deshaun Watson 27 RB Bilal Powell 27 WR Keke Coutee 36 TE C.J. Uzomah 27 DST Bears 18
QB Matt Ryan 18 RB Tevin Coleman 27 WR Julio Jones 27 TE Austin Hooper 18 DST Chargers 18
QB Ben Roethlisberger 9 RB Todd Gurley II 18 WR Chris Godwin 27 TE Greg Olsen 9 DST Cowboys 9
QB Jameis Winston 9 RB Christian McCaffrey 18 WR Tyler Boyd 27 TE Jared Cook 9 DST Texans 9
QB Philip Rivers 9 RB T.J. Yeldon 18 WR Devin Funchess 27 DST Falcons 9
RB Chris Carson 18 WR DeAndre Hopkins 27 DST Titans 9
RB Melvin Gordon III 18 WR Mohamed Sanu 18
RB Latavius Murray 9 WR Chester Rogers 18
RB James Conner 9 WR Jarvis Landry 18
RB Ezekiel Elliott 9 WR Corey Davis 18
RB Dion Lewis 9 WR Amari Cooper 18
RB David Johnson 9 WR Antonio Brown 9
WR Tyrell Williams 9
WR Brandin Cooks 9
WR Robert Woods 9
WR John Brown 9
WR Mike Evans 9
WR Quincy Enunwa 9
WR Keenan Allen 9

Study this and see what you can find. What jumps out to me is that Bales didn’t diversify around games. Rather than pick between Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries (a big issue for me last week), he went hard on Godwin.

Oftentimes DFS players will play someone like a Humphries and Godwin at equal percentage instead of giving all his lineups Godwin. And it’s not like Godwin was a clear call.

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Same goes with Chester Rogers and no Eric Ebron or Ryan Grant.

Last week Slaytations used 3 WR’s and TE’s from the Falcons. Bales approach was to pick the riskiest players and not max enter his lineups in order to feel better about predicting the Falcon’s to score a lot of points.

Also, notice that just about all of these players have been a part of top lineups before. He isn’t predicting breakouts moreso as he’s hoping for past performance to outperform projections that can vary too much week to week. I’m guessing this comes from deep knowledge of player projections, their shortcomings, and that many players use projections.

I hope Bales doubles down on this strategy and we keep seeing it.

I’m going to give it a go next week.

Past Winners

The past winners did not win in week 6.

Week Winner Player Number of Lineups Paid Won
1 Chalk 0 0 0.0
2 JEREMYHEIN 148 1480 -1045.0
3 TheHodgesFactor 7 70 -70.0
4 Nickelback4Lyfe 150 1500 -1280.0
5 Slaytations 132 1320 -1110.0

I hope to see some of these players make the jump to “pro”. And that being an unsponsored pro is possible. Time will tell. We’ll keep tracking.

Pro vs Herd

Here is where we compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 to everyone else.

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
araven52 1460.0 150 9.733333
totoroll33 1380.0 75 18.400000
str8_cash_homies 735.0 150 4.900000
papagates -1280.0 150 -8.533333
youdacao -1370.0 150 -9.133333
chipotleaddict -1455.0 150 -9.700000

Rough week for most pro’s. I’m working on my own leaderboard instead of Rotogrinder’s that factors in volume better because frankly these guys should be doing a little better.

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
davematt123 999900.0 34 29408.823529
primetimeronnie 149620.0 110 1360.181818
robmamrew 100060.0 4 25015.000000
jhann12 49990.0 1 49990.000000
jman3833 29980.0 2 14990.000000
ending -1485.0 150 -9.900000
cewrazen -1500.0 150 -10.000000
thefantasybros -1500.0 150 -10.000000
ballerrrsammy -1500.0 150 -10.000000
wpalango -1500.0 150 -10.000000

Ending won in week 12 last year but is now right on the bottom.

Pro vs Herd Point Totals

index Points_herd Points_pro
count 417007.000000 4597.000000
mean 138.662681 142.212417
std 24.235282 24.329466
min 32.160000 67.220000
25% 122.260000 125.160000
50% 138.760000 142.660000
75% 155.160000 159.160000
max 245.900000 220.200000

The pro’s beat out the herd by a few points on average but the variance (square of std) was quite similar. This suggests lineup composition (stacks, don’t play defense) is similar but pro’s did better at player selection

Pro vs Herd Player Utilization

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Bears 18 35 -17.0
Chester Rogers <5% 16 -13.0
Calvin Ridley <5% 14 -11.0
DeSean Jackson <5% 14 -11.0
Todd Gurley II 13 21 -8.0
James Conner 7 14 -7.0
Mohamed Sanu 6 13 -7.0
T.J. Yeldon 12 19 -7.0
A.J. Green <5% 9 -6.0
Tarik Cohen <5% 9 -6.0
John Brown <5% 8 -5.0
Christian McCaffrey 6 11 -5.0
Jordan Howard <5% 6 -3.0
Tyler Boyd 15 18 -3.0
Cameron Brate 6 9 -3.0
Chris Carson 16 19 -3.0
Ravens <5% 6 -3.0
Andy Dalton <5% 6 -3.0
Mike Evans 16 19 -3.0
Cooper Kupp <5% 5 -2.0
Vance McDonald 5 6 -1.0
Joe Mixon 9 10 -1.0
Keke Coutee 9 10 -1.0
Baker Mayfield 5 6 -1.0
Matt Ryan 18 19 -1.0
Antonio Callaway 5 5 0.0
Jared Goff 6 6 0.0
Amari Cooper 7 7 0.0
C.J. Uzomah 14 14 0.0
Eric Ebron 6 5 1.0
Tyler Lockett 9 8 1.0
David Njoku 12 11 1.0
Ito Smith 5 <5% 2.0
Robert Woods 5 <5% 2.0
Michael Crabtree 5 <5% 2.0
Melvin Gordon III 17 15 2.0
Adam Thielen 11 9 2.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster 13 11 2.0
Kirk Cousins 5 <5% 2.0
Texans 9 7 2.0
Jordan Reed 8 5 3.0
Austin Hooper 22 19 3.0
Marshawn Lynch 11 8 3.0
Latavius Murray 10 7 3.0
Russell Wilson 6 <5% 3.0
Brandin Cooks 6 <5% 3.0
Dion Lewis 6 <5% 3.0
Ben Roethlisberger 6 <5% 3.0
Doug Baldwin 8 5 3.0
Jameis Winston 21 17 4.0
Carlos Hyde 9 5 4.0
Maurice Harris 7 <5% 4.0
Cowboys 13 8 5.0
Bilal Powell 11 6 5.0
Keenan Allen 8 <5% 5.0
Falcons 9 <5% 6.0
Antonio Brown 18 12 6.0
Bills 9 <5% 6.0
Jared Cook 12 5 7.0
Chris Godwin 15 7 8.0
DeAndre Hopkins 17 9 8.0
Jarvis Landry 23 12 11.0
Julio Jones 50 39 11.0
Tevin Coleman 34 22 12.0
David Johnson 23 8 15.0
Ezekiel Elliott 31 11 20.0

The Bears were played a lot but surprisingly faded by the Pro’s compared to the Herd. The Dolphins hadn’t been great on offense, had a backup QB, and the Bears were coming off a bye week. But Brock isn’t a typical backup and the Dolphins have been underperforming.

On the other hand, the Pro’s really liked Julio Jones.

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Nothing else really stands out to me here. Perhaps the RB love by the Pro’s and that they favored RB’s over bad matchups.

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Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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