DraftKings Week 5 Recap

Slaytations' Winning Lineup 234.36

Another week, yet another one of our reader’s takes home top prize?!?

Slatytations' Comment
From our 2018 Recap Archive Page

I feel like I’ve been punked. Like seriously. If anyone made that comment up as a joke please stand up because you are the real slim shady. Otherwise I’m going to enjoy the hell out of this.

[Enjoyment ensues] To have not just one but the last two Milly Maker winner’s read this blog series is incredible! Now I gotta win

Let’s get started on the recap.

Quick Facts

  • Winner’s lineup scored 234.36
  • Best possible lineup was 273.76
    • ~40 points higher than winner’s lineup (this is normal)
  • 150.04 to cash

Slaytations’ Winning Lineup: 234.36 Points

Slaytations' Winning Lineup 234.36

He entered 35 lineups and got quite the point spread

Points
count 35.000000
mean 135.877143
std 27.166466
min 84.020000
25% 121.470000
50% 133.820000
75% 146.090000
max 234.360000

But summary statistics don’t tell the whole story. He won because of an isolated set of highly positive and correlated events occurred.

Slaytations' Point Distribution
Notice how just one lineup really stands out. But not as much as the commas in his DraftKing’s account.

Typically players will have a smoother “descent” to the top lineup when they multi-enter. Slaytations really did a good job taking an appropriate risk for his bankroll with Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 34%.

Player Pool

Looking at his player pool we can see he was real hot on the Lions-Packers game as a whole.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matthew Stafford 54 RB David Johnson 60 WR Kenny Golladay 45 TE Jimmy Graham 54 DST Jets 28
QB Blake Bortles 17 RB T.J. Yeldon 25 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 34 TE Austin Hooper 11 DST Broncos 23
QB Aaron Rodgers 11 RB Kerryon Johnson 23 WR Julio Jones 34 TE Zach Ertz 8 DST Titans 11
QB Kirk Cousins 8 RB James Conner 14 WR Golden Tate 23 TE Rhett Ellison 8 DST Rams 11
QB Russell Wilson 5 RB Melvin Gordon III 14 WR Marvin Jones Jr. 20 TE David Njoku 5 DST Bills 8
QB Matt Ryan 3 RB Jay Ajayi 14 WR Antonio Brown 20 TE Travis Kelce 3 DST Jaguars 5
RB Joe Mixon 11 WR Tyrell Williams 17 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 3 DST Cardinals 3
RB Aaron Jones 11 WR Doug Baldwin 17 TE Nick Vannett 3 DST 49ers 3
RB Todd Gurley II 8 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 14 TE Jared Cook 3 DST Ravens 3
RB Marshawn Lynch 8 WR Stefon Diggs 14 DST Eagles 3
RB Christian McCaffrey 5 WR Brandin Cooks 14
RB Matt Breida 5 WR Dede Westbrook 14
RB Theo Riddick 3 WR Davante Adams 11
RB Derrick Henry 3 WR Adam Thielen 11
RB Bilal Powell 3 WR Alshon Jeffery 11
RB Kareem Hunt 3 WR Odell Beckham Jr. 8
WR Mohamed Sanu 8
WR Kenny Stills 8
WR Amari Cooper 8
WR Calvin Ridley 8
WR Jarvis Landry 8
WR Antonio Callaway 8
WR Keenan Allen 5
WR Keelan Cole 5
WR Mike Williams 5
WR Tyreek Hill 3
WR Tyler Lockett 3

GB@DET had the 3rd highest over/under on the slate last week. With the big question mark being how the Packer’s Offense would fare with Cobb and Allison out.

Whereas Slaytations had Marquez Valdez-Scantling in a lot of his lineups, I was among the chumps who put Ty Montgomery in 28.45% of lineups. I should have read Rotoworld on all the Packer’s WR’s.

Rotoworld Valdez-Scantling

Slaytations’ Overall Lineup Strategy

68 players in his player pool.

His stacks look deliberate with exposure limits or something else. Here’s David Johnson forming the back-bone of his lineups and a Rodgers stack at equal exposure settings.

Packer's Stacks

Notably, he played those WR’s each in their own separate stacks.

It looks like he actually preferred the Lion’s over the Packer’s.

Percentage Player
20 QB Matthew Stafford, TE Jimmy Graham, WR Kenny Golladay
17 QB Matthew Stafford, RB T.J. Yeldon, WR Kenny Golladay
17 QB Matthew Stafford, RB David Johnson, WR Kenny Golladay
17 QB Matthew Stafford, TE Jimmy Graham, WR Golden Tate
14 RB David Johnson, WR Julio Jones, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
14 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
14 RB David Johnson, TE Jimmy Graham, WR Julio Jones
14 DST Broncos, RB David Johnson, WR Kenny Golladay
14 DST Broncos, RB David Johnson, WR Julio Jones
14 DST Broncos, RB David Johnson, TE Jimmy Graham

Notice how Aaron Rodgers didn’t make the list of his top 10 triple stacks. And he’s not on top 30 stacks either

Percentage Player
37 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay
31 RB David Johnson, TE Jimmy Graham
31 QB Matthew Stafford, TE Jimmy Graham
28 RB David Johnson, WR Julio Jones
25 RB David Johnson, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
25 QB Matthew Stafford, RB David Johnson
23 RB T.J. Yeldon, WR Kenny Golladay
23 RB David Johnson, WR Kenny Golladay
23 TE Jimmy Graham, WR Kenny Golladay
23 DST Broncos, RB David Johnson
23 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Golden Tate
20 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
20 DST Jets, QB Matthew Stafford
20 DST Jets, TE Jimmy Graham
17 WR Julio Jones, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
17 WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
17 QB Matthew Stafford, RB T.J. Yeldon
17 TE Jimmy Graham, WR Julio Jones
17 DST Jets, RB David Johnson
17 TE Jimmy Graham, WR Marvin Jones Jr.
17 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Antonio Brown
17 TE Jimmy Graham, WR Golden Tate
14 RB David Johnson, RB T.J. Yeldon
14 RB David Johnson, RB Kerryon Johnson
14 RB Kerryon Johnson, WR Julio Jones
14 RB Kerryon Johnson, TE Jimmy Graham
14 DST Broncos, WR Kenny Golladay
14 DST Broncos, WR Julio Jones
14 DST Broncos, TE Jimmy Graham
14 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Marvin Jones Jr.

Bankroll in the Milly Maker

paid won
week_num
1 3000.0 -2510.0
2 2480.0 -1700.0
3 440.0 -280.0
4 30.0 -30.0
5 700.0 999570.0
Totals 6650.0 995050.0

Great week to get a win after a bad start to the season. I’m glad he stayed in the hunt and I had a fun time analyzing his lineups.

To Slaytations: Nice picks, even better win, and great job doing your homework. Happy to hear you read these and good luck to you in the future.

Best Lineup Possible: 273.76

The best lineup possible is shown below.

player_name position score salary team_name
Aaron Rodgers QB 33.68 6300.0 GB
James Conner RB 37.50 7500.0 PIT
Isaiah Crowell RB 33.10 4100.0 NYJ
Odell Beckham Jr. WR 35.38 8000.0 NYG
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 19.80 3300.0 GB
Robby Anderson WR 30.30 3800.0 NYJ
Zach Ertz TE 30.00 6500.0 PHI
Davante Adams FLEX 32.00 7600.0 GB
Kansas City Chiefs DST 22.00 2500.0 KC
273.76 49600.0

There were at least 101,858 lineups better than the winner. The player pool of these better than winner lineups is shown below

Name Percentage
James Conner 0.997
Isaiah Crowell 0.621
Robby Anderson 0.586
Odell Beckham Jr. 0.582
Kansas City Chiefs 0.467
Zach Ertz 0.461
Aaron Rodgers 0.416
Davante Adams 0.339
C.J. Beathard 0.260
Blake Bortles 0.255
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.233
Demaryius Thomas 0.215
Kenyan Drake 0.209
T.J. Yeldon 0.205
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 0.205
David Moore 0.190
Adam Thielen 0.189
Antonio Brown 0.185
Trent Taylor 0.181
Austin Hooper 0.171
Saquon Barkley 0.163
Todd Gurley 0.159
Christian Kirk 0.144
Miami Dolphins 0.131
Minnesota Vikings 0.127
Niles Paul 0.115
Wendell Smallwood 0.110
Cooper Kupp 0.109
Rashard Higgins 0.104
Stefon Diggs 0.096
Travis Kelce 0.091
Mike Davis 0.070
Sam Darnold 0.069
Kyle Juszczyk 0.067
Jimmy Graham 0.064
Equanimeous St. Brown 0.063
LeGarrette Blount 0.054
Curtis Samuel 0.052
Lance Kendricks 0.049
George Kittle 0.048
Alfred Morris 0.036
Jalen Richard 0.035
New York Giants 0.030
Ito Smith 0.019
Oakland Raiders 0.013
Anthony Sherman 0.005
Roc Thomas 0.005
C.J. Ham 0.004
Matt Schaub 0.001

Todd Gurley makes the list and James Conner, not Marquez Valdez-Scantling was the best pick in Week 6.

Pro’s

Bales won $210

Praise be. Bales did something. I’ll just highlight his point distribution as a more classic pro distribution with the positive skew than Slaytations’.

Bales' Point Distribution

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Russell Wilson 24 RB T.J. Yeldon 43 WR Doug Baldwin 37 TE Jimmy Graham 37 DST Eagles 18
QB Carson Wentz 12 RB David Johnson 37 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 31 TE David Njoku 18 DST Bengals 12
QB Matthew Stafford 12 RB Todd Gurley II 31 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 24 TE Jared Cook 18 DST Cardinals 12
QB Blake Bortles 12 RB Christian McCaffrey 24 WR Tyler Lockett 24 TE Zach Ertz 12 DST Titans 12
QB Ben Roethlisberger 6 RB Kareem Hunt 18 WR Nelson Agholor 18 TE Travis Kelce 6 DST Panthers 12
QB Jared Goff 6 RB Aaron Jones 18 WR Mike Williams 18 TE Kyle Rudolph 6 DST Ravens 12
QB Kirk Cousins 6 RB Melvin Gordon III 18 WR Kenny Golladay 18 DST Lions 6
QB Andy Dalton 6 RB James Conner 12 WR Dede Westbrook 18 DST Vikings 6
QB Matt Ryan 6 RB Bilal Powell 12 WR A.J. Green 18 DST Chargers 6
QB Derek Carr 6 RB Joe Mixon 6 WR Adam Thielen 12
WR Stefon Diggs 12
WR Mohamed Sanu 12
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 12
WR Robert Woods 12
WR Jordy Nelson 12
WR Cooper Kupp 12
WR Golden Tate 12
WR Antonio Brown 6
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 6
WR Keenan Allen 6
WR Tyler Boyd 6
WR Kenny Stills 6
WR Jarvis Landry 6
WR Julio Jones 6
WR Calvin Ridley 6
WR Amari Cooper 6
WR Alshon Jeffery 6

Some similar exposure in Bales and Slaytations’ player pools.

Nice win Bales. Even though it’s small I’ll take it

Nickelback4Lyfe

Last week’s winner and a reader of these posts entered 150 lineups for the first time this season.

Points
count 150.000000
mean 126.167467
std 18.784172
min 83.320000
25% 112.590000
50% 123.570000
75% 137.515000
max 169.820000

He missed the mark this time losing $2,200. But that’s a normal bad score for a bad week by a pro.

He’s very mathematical and you can read about his thought process straight from him here.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matthew Stafford 35 RB Christian McCaffrey 44 WR Julio Jones 38 TE Vance McDonald 38 DST Broncos 24
QB Derek Carr 11 RB Melvin Gordon III 44 WR Marvin Jones Jr. 22 TE Jared Cook 21 DST Titans 20
QB Blake Bortles 11 RB T.J. Yeldon 34 WR Kenny Golladay 21 TE Jimmy Graham 16 DST Ravens 19
QB Ben Roethlisberger 11 RB Kerryon Johnson 34 WR Taywan Taylor 19 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 8 DST Bengals 8
QB Marcus Mariota 9 RB Derrick Henry 21 WR Tyler Boyd 19 TE Austin Hooper 7 DST Browns 7
QB Carson Wentz 6 RB James Conner 17 WR Mike Williams 17 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 7 DST Panthers 6
QB Kirk Cousins 5 RB Todd Gurley II 12 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 17 TE Zach Ertz 6 DST Jets 6
QB Jared Goff 3 RB Aaron Jones 12 WR Golden Tate 16 TE C.J. Uzomah 4 DST Cardinals 4
QB Patrick Mahomes 3 RB Austin Ekeler 10 WR Cooper Kupp 14 TE Jonnu Smith 4 DST Jaguars 3
QB Philip Rivers 2 RB Marshawn Lynch 9 WR Adam Thielen 14 TE Tyler Kroft 4 DST Rams 2
QB Matt Ryan 2 RB Ty Montgomery 7 WR Stefon Diggs 12 TE Travis Kelce 3
QB Andy Dalton 1 RB Dion Lewis 6 WR Antonio Brown 12
RB Saquon Barkley 5 WR Jordy Nelson 9
RB Chris Carson 3 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 9
RB Theo Riddick 3 WR Amari Cooper 9
RB Corey Grant 3 WR Mohamed Sanu 8
RB David Johnson 1 WR A.J. Green 8
RB Jay Ajayi 1 WR Martavis Bryant 6
WR Sterling Shepard 6
WR Nelson Agholor 6
WR Dede Westbrook 5
WR Corey Davis 5
WR Robert Woods 5
WR Albert Wilson 4
WR Keenan Allen 4
WR Willie Snead IV 3
WR Calvin Ridley 3
WR James Washington 3
WR Davante Adams 2
WR Brandin Cooks 1

Nickelback4Lyfe’s player pool was more balanced than last time. And he looks to play like a riskier CONDIA. Good luck in Week 6.

Youdacao

We haven’t written about Youdacao yet. He’s a high profile player with a background in finance (read this interview).

In Week 5 Youda max entered and won $32,835 with $3,000 down.

Youdacao's Point Distribution

I can’t quite tell if he has a traditional positive skew pro-style distribution or if he focuses more on shifting his mean higher. With this first take, it looks relatively”normal” with a mean shit and a not very remarkable variance.

Points
count 150.000000
mean 156.276800
std 20.980141
min 98.719990
25% 141.470000
50% 155.350000
75% 170.160000
max 222.080000

Youdacao Lineup Strategy

83 players in his player pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matthew Stafford 22 RB Christian McCaffrey 37 WR Antonio Brown 33 TE Jimmy Graham 32 DST Browns 26
QB Russell Wilson 17 RB Saquon Barkley 30 WR Marvin Jones Jr. 29 TE Travis Kelce 26 DST Jets 19
QB Kirk Cousins 12 RB David Johnson 27 WR Kenny Golladay 24 TE David Njoku 16 DST Bills 14
QB Aaron Rodgers 11 RB James Conner 26 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 24 TE Zach Ertz 13 DST Bengals 11
QB Blake Bortles 11 RB T.J. Yeldon 23 WR Doug Baldwin 23 TE Nick Vannett 12 DST Ravens 11
QB Derek Carr 8 RB Todd Gurley II 15 WR Julio Jones 23 TE Jared Cook 9 DST Cardinals 9
QB Andy Dalton 4 RB Marshawn Lynch 13 WR Dede Westbrook 17 TE Vance McDonald 7 DST Broncos 6
QB Ben Roethlisberger 4 RB Austin Ekeler 12 WR A.J. Green 17 TE Austin Hooper 5 DST Vikings 2
QB Patrick Mahomes 3 RB Melvin Gordon III 9 WR Keelan Cole 17 TE Ian Thomas 3 DST Jaguars 1
QB Cam Newton 3 RB LeSean McCoy 9 WR Adam Thielen 16 TE Levine Toilolo 3
QB Matt Ryan 2 RB Kerryon Johnson 6 WR Golden Tate 14 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 2
QB Carson Wentz 1 RB Ty Montgomery 6 WR Tyler Lockett 12 TE Rhett Ellison 1
QB Eli Manning 1 RB Kareem Hunt 3 WR Stefon Diggs 11 TE Luke Willson 1
RB Bilal Powell 1 WR Mohamed Sanu 11 TE Kyle Rudolph 1
RB Kenyan Drake 1 WR Tyreek Hill 11 TE Mike Gesicki 1
WR Courtland Sutton 10 TE C.J. Uzomah 1
WR Amari Cooper 9
WR Davante Adams 7
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 7
WR Christian Kirk 7
WR Tyler Boyd 7
WR Cooper Kupp 6
WR Devin Funchess 4
WR Tyrell Williams 3
WR Nelson Agholor 2
WR Donte Moncrief 2
WR Danny Amendola 2
WR David Moore 1
WR Jordy Nelson 1
WR Mike Williams 1

Perhaps Nickelback4Lyfe is closer to Youdacao’s strategy than CONDIA? Very similar exposures and players at the different positions. Hell Nickelback4Lyfe did say he does care about all those things after all.

Youdacao Stacks Intentionally

Percentage Player
15 QB Russell Wilson, WR Doug Baldwin
14 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Golden Tate
13 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Marvin Jones Jr.
13 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay
12 QB Russell Wilson, RB Todd Gurley II
12 QB Kirk Cousins, WR Adam Thielen
11 QB Russell Wilson, WR Tyler Lockett
11 QB Kirk Cousins, TE Zach Ertz
11 QB Kirk Cousins, WR Stefon Diggs
11 QB Matthew Stafford, TE Jimmy Graham

He played Kirk Cousins almost exclusively with both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs in a triple stack. Same with Derek Carr, Jared Cook and Amari Cooper

Youda also went for game stacks, using a bunch of triple stacks

  • QB Russell Wilson, RB Todd Gurley II, WR Doug Baldwin – 11%
  • QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 10%
  • QB Aaron Rodgers, TE Jimmy Graham, WR Kenny Golladay – 6%

He went real heavy on that Kirk Cousins play. He added in Zach Ertz to all of those Kirk-Diggs-Thielen triple stacks making it his favorite game.

Here’s his top triple stacks.

Percentage Player
11 QB Russell Wilson, RB Todd Gurley II, WR Doug Baldwin
11 QB Kirk Cousins, TE Zach Ertz, WR Adam Thielen
11 QB Kirk Cousins, WR Adam Thielen, WR Stefon Diggs
11 QB Kirk Cousins, TE Zach Ertz, WR Stefon Diggs
10 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
9 QB Russell Wilson, WR Doug Baldwin, WR Tyler Lockett
8 QB Matthew Stafford, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Golden Tate
7 QB Russell Wilson, RB Todd Gurley II, WR Tyler Lockett
7 QB Matthew Stafford, TE Jimmy Graham, WR Marvin Jones Jr.
7 QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones Jr.

Youdacao Bankroll Management

Nice when you just max enter. Here’s just how big a big win is

paid won
week_num
1 3000.0 -2320.0
2 3000.0 -2450.0
3 3000.0 -680.0
4 1500.0 690.0
5 3000.0 32835.0
Totals 13500.0 28075.0

A few bad weeks but he bounced back in a big way in Weeks 4 and 5.

Pro Vs Herd

This section is where I compare the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 (Pro’s) to everyone else

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
youdacao 32835.0 150 218.900000
rikkidee 13815.0 150 92.100000
nilknarf 7910.0 150 52.733333
ehafner -1695.0 150 -11.300000
petrgibbons -1860.0 150 -12.400000
scout326 -2030.0 150 -13.533333
wakeywakey -2510.0 150 -16.733333
str8_cash_homies -2620.0 150 -17.466667

Misc: a reader mentioned mallen21 as someone to look at past performance. In Week 5 he won $4,695. On the season he has won $12,975 on the Milly Maker so he looks to be good thus far. Mallen21 is on my to do list of players to analyze.

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
slaytations 999570.0 35 28559.142857
karlsbergto 159825.0 150 1065.500000
bmiller45 149990.0 10 14999.000000
bidle -2560.0 140 -18.285714
crunchlord -2670.0 150 -17.800000
alargefarva -2670.0 150 -17.800000
dustpop -2730.0 150 -18.200000
legit-storm -2970.0 150 -19.800000

Point Totals

index Points_herd Points_pro
count 226463.000000 4115.000000
mean 134.831140 143.980705
std 20.900735 21.506590
min 48.660000 79.340000
25% 120.300000 129.150000
50% 134.380000 143.120000
75% 148.800000 158.200000
max 234.360000 222.080000

The pro’s had a much higher mean but the rest of the distributions looks similar.

Player Pool Comparison

Here’s a look at the top differences.

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Calvin Ridley <5% 24 -21.0
Aaron Jones 7 19 -12.0
Vance McDonald 12 24 -12.0
Jordy Nelson <5% 13 -10.0
Matt Ryan <5% 13 -10.0
Adam Thielen 9 17 -8.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster 15 22 -7.0
Stefon Diggs 6 13 -7.0
T.J. Yeldon 26 31 -5.0
Mohamed Sanu 6 11 -5.0
James Conner 24 16 8.0
David Johnson 34 26 8.0
Aaron Rodgers 11 <5% 8.0
Jimmy Graham 18 10 8.0
Eagles 12 <5% 9.0
Travis Kelce 17 7 10.0
Saquon Barkley 18 6 12.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 26 12 14.0
Doug Baldwin 28 10 18.0
Marvin Jones Jr. 28 10 18.0

The Pro’s really do their homework. Quite a big difference with Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

But I was most surprised by the Calvin Ridley fade?!? Was it because of his salary, matchup, or something else? What gives?

My guess is Joe Haden effect and Steelers at home/Falcon’s not in their dome. It’s tough to tell what cornerbacks are truly elite with all the hype WR-CB matchups get but the pro’s nailed it.

Announcements/Misc

Why I Do These?

I want to get better at DFS plain and simple. I’d love to do something full-time in a similar arena. Most people would jump to finance and algorithmic trading, hell there’s even a company near me called “Jump Trading” but those are boring to me. DFS is awesome.

I’d love to have a career with no clients, no customers, just me vs everyone else.

Pro Strategy Series

I’m taking a break this week but check out my article on Al_Smizzle last week.

Next article we’ll look at Dan Back. And start to beef up our ability to analyze how people did in all contests on DraftKings throughout the season

Anti-Fragility

Never hear of the concept of “anti-fragility”? It comes from Nassim Taleb and is a major influence for pro DFS player Jonathan Bales’ barbell strategy.

(that’s a tweet from my personal blog Ergo Sum)

Good luck to all in Week 6. Maybe we’ll hear another reader is a winner.

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