DraftKings Week 4 Recap

Nickelback4Lyfe's Winning Lineup 273.56

Quick Facts

  • Nickelback4Lyfe wins with 273.56
    • He is a /r/dfsports reddit user!
  • The Milly Maker entry fee dropped to $10
  • 193.98 to cash
  • Best lineup possible 321.66
    • Even though the top 20 point totals were pretty close you could have done much better
  • First article in DFS Pro Strategy Done

Nickelback4Lyfe’s Winning Lineup: 273.56

Nickelback4Lyfe's Winning Lineup 273.56

Week 4 is a bit of a special week. We have an active reddit user from /r/dfsports taking down the top prize, DFSForecast.

He said he loves these articles and will add his take on thought process for his total lineup build and the winning lineup after we publish. So now it’s time for me to do my best and analyze his strategy.

Strategy Analysis of Nickelback4Lyfe

Gleaming through his post history, we can see that he believes in setting exposure limits using a self-built R optimizer. He has researched the winning strategies himself through these articles as well as downloading all the 2017 contest CSV’s for the NFL.

Nickelback4Lyfe entered 50 lineups into Week 4’s Millionaire Maker.

His point distribution looks much more normal than I would have expected.

Nickelback4Lyfe's Point Totals

But hey, if you can shift the mean that much with a sharp Sterling Shepard pick then you do you.

I took a quick look at his past Milly Maker results and his strategy this week was much less risky than his Week 2 4 player lock! But it looks like he makes an effort to adapt his strategy based on how many lineups he enters. Week 2 he entered just 15 lineups.

 Player Pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Andy Dalton 20 RB Ezekiel Elliott 40 WR Sterling Shepard 70 TE Jared Cook 36 DST Bears 26
QB Mitchell Trubisky 16 RB Saquon Barkley 38 WR Allen Robinson II 36 TE Tyler Eifert 16 DST Packers 18
QB Matt Ryan 14 RB Giovani Bernard 38 WR Mike Williams 24 TE Rob Gronkowski 14 DST Dolphins 12
QB Deshaun Watson 10 RB Alvin Kamara 26 WR Michael Thomas 20 TE Trey Burton 14 DST Chargers 10
QB Eli Manning 10 RB Melvin Gordon III 26 WR Quincy Enunwa 16 TE David Njoku 12 DST Cardinals 8
QB Tom Brady 8 RB Sony Michel 18 WR A.J. Green 16 TE Austin Hooper 12 DST Raiders 8
QB Philip Rivers 8 RB Tevin Coleman 14 WR Tyler Boyd 14 TE Eric Ebron 8 DST Eagles 6
QB Baker Mayfield 4 RB Kerryon Johnson 10 WR Kenny Stills 14 TE Zach Ertz 6 DST Cowboys 6
QB Ryan Tannehill 4 RB Marshawn Lynch 6 WR Calvin Ridley 12 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 2 DST Colts 4
QB Andrew Luck 2 RB Jordan Howard 6 WR Amari Cooper 12 TE Benjamin Watson 2 DST Jaguars 2
QB Drew Brees 2 RB James White 6 WR DeAndre Hopkins 12 TE Rhett Ellison 2
QB Derek Carr 2 RB Leonard Fournette 4 WR Taylor Gabriel 12
RB Jamaal Williams 4 WR Odell Beckham Jr. 10
RB Austin Ekeler 4 WR Jordy Nelson 8
RB Carlos Hyde 4 WR Julio Jones 6
WR Keelan Cole 6
WR Geronimo Allison 6
WR Antonio Callaway 6
WR Keenan Allen 6
WR Will Fuller V 6
WR Taywan Taylor 4
WR Christian Kirk 4
WR Albert Wilson 4
WR Jarvis Landry 2
WR Chris Godwin 2
WR Mohamed Sanu 2
WR Golden Tate 2

40% seems like a special number. In the past we’ve seen CONDIA cap player exposure around 40% and oftentimes using this cap just for skill players with QB’s being around ~12%. But Nickelback4Lyfe also took a big risk with Sterling Shepard at 70% exposure. IMO a smart play considering he only played 50 lineups.

He took more risk at QB and WR and the more consistent players at RB.

Stacks

His stacks seem more consequential than programmed.

He may have used his top RB’s in a “swap” position. This is where you generate your lineups with 1 of each of a player swapped around in the same spot.

He is also OK with stacking RB-WR as he did that in 22% of his lineups with Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard.

Overall, congratulations to Nickelback4Lyfe on his big win! Let me know how I did analyzing you. I’m excited to see your take. UPDATE: read his take here

Follow the Milly Maker winner on Twitter

Misc: Nickelback?

I’m not sure if he is being ironic with “Nickelback4Lyfe” but seeing his screen name Sunday night got me adding about 20 old Nickelback songs to my Spotify. Anyone else here wanna be a Rockstar??? Well Nickelback4Lyfe made it! HE IS A ROCKSTAR!!

As for me, I’m through of standing in lines of clubs I’ll never get in…

There’s quite a lot of great Nickelback lyrics for DFS pump up music, especially losing, so we’ll try to keep this whole recap Nickelback themed. Out of respect for the winner of course.

TommyG1979: How the hell we’d wind up like this?

TommyG1979 didn’t even cash in Week 4.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Andy Dalton 20 RB Giovani Bernard 39 WR Sterling Shepard 24 TE Eric Ebron 29 DST Bears 54
QB Tom Brady 20 RB Alvin Kamara 29 WR Tyler Boyd 24 TE Rob Gronkowski 20 DST Jaguars 20
QB Drew Brees 14 RB Ezekiel Elliott 29 WR Michael Thomas 24 TE David Njoku 14 DST Packers 5
QB Deshaun Watson 10 RB Rashaad Penny 24 WR Kenny Stills 20 TE Zach Ertz 14 DST Colts 5
QB Mitchell Trubisky 5 RB Lamar Miller 20 WR Geronimo Allison 20 TE Trey Burton 14 DST Seahawks 5
QB Aaron Rodgers 5 RB Saquon Barkley 20 WR Julio Jones 20 TE Austin Hooper 5 DST Chargers 5
QB Baker Mayfield 5 RB Dion Lewis 14 WR Calvin Ridley 20 TE Jimmy Graham 5 DST Cardinals 5
QB Matt Ryan 5 RB Sony Michel 14 WR Quincy Enunwa 20 TE Benjamin Watson 5
QB Josh Allen 5 RB Kenyan Drake 14 WR A.J. Green 14
QB Russell Wilson 5 RB Jordan Howard 10 WR Christian Kirk 14
QB Eli Manning 5 RB James White 10 WR Will Fuller V 14
RB Kyle Juszczyk 5 WR DeAndre Hopkins 10
RB David Johnson 5 WR Mohamed Sanu 10
RB Melvin Gordon III 5 WR Jarvis Landry 10
RB Carlos Hyde 5 WR Taylor Gabriel 10
WR Allen Robinson II 10
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 10
WR Josh Gordon 10
WR Kelvin Benjamin 5
WR Tyler Lockett 5
WR Rashard Higgins 5
WR Antonio Callaway 5
WR Jordy Nelson 5
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 5
WR Chris Hogan 5
WR Mike Evans 5
WR DeSean Jackson 5
WR Brandon Marshall 5

Jonathan Bales: The echoes are gone in the hall

I’m still salty that Chad Kroeger and Avril split up. And I keep saying how I’ll stop tracking Bales but I just can’t let him go.

Bales had a decent Week 3 but had his worst Milly Maker showing yet in Week 4 with the flood of entries due to the reduced price. There were double the amount of entries this week and the cash line was a high 193.98.

Bales cashed in just one of his 20 lineups and he lost $160.

Bales’ Player Pool

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matt Ryan 14 RB Sony Michel 44 WR Tyler Boyd 34 TE Eric Ebron 24 DST Seahawks 14
QB Andy Dalton 14 RB Giovani Bernard 44 WR Sterling Shepard 24 TE Rob Gronkowski 24 DST Bears 14
QB Tom Brady 14 RB Tevin Coleman 29 WR Mike Williams 24 TE Tyler Eifert 20 DST Colts 14
QB Baker Mayfield 10 RB Saquon Barkley 24 WR Julio Jones 24 TE David Njoku 14 DST Packers 10
QB Russell Wilson 10 RB Alvin Kamara 20 WR Corey Davis 24 TE Jimmy Graham 5 DST Cowboys 10
QB Philip Rivers 10 RB Ezekiel Elliott 20 WR Geronimo Allison 20 TE Austin Hooper 5 DST Cardinals 10
QB Drew Brees 10 RB Melvin Gordon III 20 WR Antonio Callaway 20 TE Trey Burton 5 DST Raiders 5
QB Eli Manning 10 RB Kerryon Johnson 20 WR Michael Thomas 20 DST Chargers 5
QB Deshaun Watson 5 RB Jordan Howard 10 WR A.J. Green 20 DST Patriots 5
RB Leonard Fournette 5 WR Allen Robinson II 20 DST Saints 5
RB Lamar Miller 5 WR Calvin Ridley 14 DST Jaguars 5
RB Wendell Smallwood 5 WR Christian Kirk 14
WR Jarvis Landry 14
WR Amari Cooper 10
WR Quincy Enunwa 10
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 10
WR Keenan Allen 10
WR DeAndre Hopkins 5
WR Jordy Nelson 5
WR Doug Baldwin 5
WR Mohamed Sanu 5
WR Tyler Lockett 5
WR T.Y. Hilton 5

On the surface this doesn’t look that bad. More that this was a tough week and his plays just didn’t hit hard enough.

I’d love to see Bales play more than 20 lineups consistently. In a season long player review article I’ll see if there is more to Bales’ spend. Perhaps it’s that he just doesn’t feel like he has anything good for the week so he doesn’t play too much in the featured GPP.

Chess_is_ok Wins $495: It’s Too Bad

Alright this Nickelback song is probably the worst of the bunch so far but we gotta pay our respect to the winner’s favorite artist.

Chess_is_ok didn’t quite hit the milly but he keeps doing well.

On 150 lineups he won $495.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matt Ryan 15 RB Alvin Kamara 52 WR Julio Jones 24 TE Eric Ebron 31 DST Saints 15
QB Deshaun Watson 13 RB Ezekiel Elliott 50 WR A.J. Green 24 TE Rob Gronkowski 30 DST Colts 13
QB Tom Brady 11 RB David Johnson 46 WR Sterling Shepard 23 TE Benjamin Watson 21 DST Cardinals 11
QB Russell Wilson 11 RB Tevin Coleman 25 WR Allen Robinson II 22 TE Jared Cook 17 DST Bears 10
QB Andrew Luck 7 RB Sony Michel 13 WR Geronimo Allison 21 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 15 DST Seahawks 7
QB Drew Brees 7 RB Melvin Gordon III 7 WR Taylor Gabriel 19 TE Zach Ertz 11 DST Titans 7
QB Andy Dalton 7 RB Kenyan Drake 5 WR Marvin Jones Jr. 19 TE Austin Hooper 7 DST Bills 7
QB Ryan Tannehill 7 RB Jordan Howard 5 WR DeAndre Hopkins 16 TE Jimmy Graham 7 DST Buccaneers 7
QB Mitchell Trubisky 6 RB Austin Ekeler 3 WR Tyler Boyd 15 TE Tyler Eifert 6 DST Raiders 5
QB Aaron Rodgers 5 RB Giovani Bernard 3 WR Danny Amendola 13 TE David Njoku 4 DST Packers 5
QB Carson Wentz 5 RB Leonard Fournette 1 WR T.Y. Hilton 13 TE George Kittle 2 DST Chargers 5
QB Matthew Stafford 2 RB Chris Carson 1 WR Doug Baldwin 12 TE Rhett Ellison 2 DST Eagles 4
QB Philip Rivers 2 RB Nyheim Hines 1 WR Kelvin Benjamin 12 TE Trey Burton 1 DST Cowboys 3
QB Josh Rosen 1 RB Kerryon Johnson 1 WR Christian Kirk 11 TE O.J. Howard 1 DST Jets 1
QB Eli Manning 1 WR Tyler Lockett 11 TE Geoff Swaim 1 DST Texans 1
WR Mohamed Sanu 9 DST Patriots 1
WR Calvin Ridley 9
WR Kenny Stills 9
WR Nelson Agholor 7
WR Michael Thomas 7
WR Albert Wilson 6
WR Will Fuller V 6
WR Davante Adams 5
WR Mike Williams 3
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 3
WR Kenny Golladay 3
WR Keenan Allen 2
WR Quincy Enunwa 2
WR Ted Ginn Jr. 2
WR Chris Hogan 2
WR Mike Evans 1
WR Amari Cooper 1
WR Ryan Grant 1

Chess_is_ok is heavily math/optimizer driven. The Colts D hurts and he didn’t see Tarik Cohen outplaying Jordan Howard. But 248 points is quite a nice lineup.

Good luck next time. I’m excited to go into more detail about Chess_is_ok in a season long article.

Al_Smizzle wins $1,330

Check out my all new pro player strategy series to see Al_Smizzle’s Week 4 info as well as season long tidbits.

Pro vs Herd

This section is where we analyze the Rotogrinder’s Top 50 compared to everyone else

Pro Winners and Losers

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
mrnastytime91 4955.0 150 33.033333
rubiodimes 3255.0 150 21.700000
cubsfan333 1840.0 101 18.217822
bdholla89 1750.0 150 11.666667
skipbidder 1635.0 150 10.900000
wakeywakey 1530.0 150 10.200000
rockchalk88 1390.0 150 9.266667
youdacao 690.0 150 4.600000
awesemo 630.0 150 4.200000
chess_is_ok 495.0 150 3.300000
scout326 -420.0 150 -2.800000
rikkidee -675.0 150 -4.500000
squirrelpatroldk -710.0 150 -4.733333
jayk123x -710.0 150 -4.733333
shawnzhan -730.0 150 -4.866667
thatstunna -770.0 150 -5.133333
csuram88 -810.0 150 -5.400000
dr.karl -980.0 150 -6.533333
nolesman -1170.0 150 -7.800000
papagates -1500.0 150 -10.000000

Cubsfan333 makes another appearance (he won last season). And Awesemo wins $630.

As a group the Pro’s won $10,050.

The Herd Winners and Losers

The herd lost $506,460.

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
nickelback4lyfe 1000690.0 50 20013.800000
antigamblephobia 150010.0 69 2174.057971
tripper79 99980.0 2 49990.000000
cant_stop_beastmode -1500.0 150 -10.000000
i_am_starving -1500.0 150 -10.000000
carissamoore -1500.0 150 -10.000000
wpalango -1500.0 150 -10.000000
ctbty2 -1500.0 150 -10.000000

i_am_starving will continue to starve. And beastmode has been stopped.

Pro v Herd Comparisons

index Points_herd Points_pro
count 465405.000000 4601.000000
mean 157.684369 168.260900
std 30.435782 32.745927
min 34.680000 68.780000
25% 136.500000 146.400000
50% 157.700000 170.660000
75% 178.980000 191.880000
max 273.560000 256.980000

The Pro’s did pretty good job in Week 4. Higher variance (std is sqrt(variance)) and higher mean. Just didn’t take home top prize.

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Calvin Ridley 9 23 -14.0
Mike Williams 5 16 -11.0
Will Fuller V <5% 13 -10.0
Melvin Gordon III 12 21 -9.0
Carlos Hyde <5% 12 -9.0
Tyler Boyd 22 30 -8.0
Philip Rivers <5% 9 -6.0
Baker Mayfield <5% 8 -5.0
Seahawks <5% 8 -5.0
Jarvis Landry 8 13 -5.0
Rob Gronkowski 13 8 5.0
DeAndre Hopkins 10 <5% 7.0
Taylor Gabriel 10 <5% 7.0
Ezekiel Elliott 38 30 8.0
Giovani Bernard 37 28 9.0
Quincy Enunwa 14 <5% 11.0
Tevin Coleman 28 17 11.0
Colts 18 6 12.0
Julio Jones 24 12 12.0
Eric Ebron 35 22 13.0

Common story remains. The herd reacts more to big games compared to the Pro’s, like a druggie chasing a high.

Pro’s focus on players returning back to their typical performance.

Best Lineup Possible: 321.66 Points

player_name position score salary team_name
Mitchell Trubisky QB 46.46 5200.0 CHI
Ezekiel Elliott RB 37.00 7700.0 DAL
Alvin Kamara RB 44.10 9600.0 NO
Taylor Gabriel WR 33.40 3900.0 CHI
Golden Tate WR 36.20 6600.0 DET
Corey Davis WR 34.10 5300.0 TEN
Jared Cook TE 34.00 4100.0 OAK
Tarik Cohen FLEX 33.40 4100.0 CHI
Green Bay Packers DST 23.00 3500.0 GB
321.66 50000.0

The player pool of these better than winner lineups included

Name Percentage
Alvin Kamara 0.993
Mitchell Trubisky 0.634
Taylor Gabriel 0.440
Jared Cook 0.417
Green Bay Packers 0.405
Tarik Cohen 0.403
Mike Davis 0.397
Golden Tate 0.390
Corey Davis 0.381
Ezekiel Elliott 0.346
James White 0.268
Nyheim Hines 0.261
Amari Cooper 0.247
Keke Coutee 0.234
DeAndre Hopkins 0.232
George Kittle 0.220
Donte Moncrief 0.218
Derek Carr 0.202
Alshon Jeffery 0.193
Sterling Shepard 0.189
Chicago Bears 0.186
Melvin Gordon 0.180
Marcus Mariota 0.150
Oakland Raiders 0.148
Mohamed Sanu 0.124
Julio Jones 0.116
Giovani Bernard 0.114
Chester Rogers 0.106
Zach Pascal 0.098
San Francisco 49ers 0.095
Indianapolis Colts 0.093
Zach Ertz 0.084
Buffalo Bills 0.073
Cordarrelle Patterson 0.070
Trey Burton 0.056
Eric Ebron 0.046
Geoff Swaim 0.042
Tyler Eifert 0.036
Darren Fells 0.036
Cameron Brate 0.035
Antonio Gates 0.028
C.J. Beathard 0.013
Josh Rosen 0.002
Brock Osweiler 0.000
Taysom Hill 0.000

Shockingly Mitchell Trubisky isn’t even a unanimous pick with his insane point total. Derek Carr was the second best QB and Kamara was just about a unanimous top-tier pick.

It will be interesting to see how Mark Ingram’s return affects Kamara usage next week.

Announcements

Pro Profiles Series!

Link here

It’s a new format so please please give me feedback on anything I can do to make them better.

Best Score Yet for Me

I got my highest score ever last week. A whopping 222.6!

But sadly Alvin Kamara ruined me late and I ended up losing $3 of my 20 dollar spend.

I’m still kicking myself for not being as big of a Bears fan as I should have been. A Buc’s fan won in Week 1 but I didn’t believe in my team enough and in Mitchmagic at all.

One Last Song Before I Ride Off

Chad Kroeger kinda looks like a Nicholas Cage doppelganger. Equally impressive talent too!

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