DraftKings Week 3 Recap

Quick Facts:

  • Winning Lineup: 251.86 (TheHodgesFactor)
  • To Cash: 157.66
  • Best Possible Lineup: 289.36

TheHodgesFactor Wins with 251.86

TheHodgesFactor's Winning Lineup 251.86

He took the risk with Ridley and it paid off big. Here’s all of his lineups

0 203018 242182
DST_8 Bears Cowboys Vikings
QB_0 Matt Ryan Patrick Mahomes Jimmy Garoppolo
RB_1 Alvin Kamara Ezekiel Elliott Tevin Coleman
RB_2 Ezekiel Elliott Matt Breida Chris Thompson
RB_3 Saquon Barkley Corey Clement Matt Breida
TE_7 Eric Ebron Evan Engram Will Dissly
WR_4 Robert Woods Tyreek Hill Julio Jones
WR_5 Tyler Boyd Devin Funchess Randall Cobb
WR_6 Calvin Ridley Ted Ginn Jr. Ted Ginn Jr.
Rank 1 202955 242182
Points 251.86 113.66 88.94

It looks to me that he manually entered all of his lineups with a bit of intuition.

  • QB-WR stacks
  • RB in flex
  • High upside players

Not too much we can say here besides congratulations! Winning the Milly Maker takes a bit of luck but you also need to use some intuition in order to boost your chances. With a small bankroll of just $60, TheHodgesFactor risked it and boy did he get the biscuit.

Best Lineup Possible: 289.36 Points

The best possible lineup featured the insane Alvin Kamara and many of the streamers you saw last Sunday.

player_name position score salary team_name
Matt Ryan QB 43.16 5700.0 ATL
Alvin Kamara RB 37.00 9500.0 NO
Todd Gurley RB 28.60 9200.0 LAR
Jordy Nelson WR 32.30 4400.0 OAK
Robert Woods WR 36.70 5100.0 LAR
Calvin Ridley WR 43.50 3700.0 ATL
Travis Kelce TE 22.40 6700.0 KC
Tyler Boyd FLEX 28.70 3700.0 CIN
Buffalo Bills DST 17.00 2000.0 BUF
289.36 50000.0

The player pool of these better than the winner’s lineups is shown below

Name Percentage
Buffalo Bills 1.000
Calvin Ridley 0.967
Alvin Kamara 0.734
Robert Woods 0.665
Jordy Nelson 0.510
Drew Brees 0.470
Matt Ryan 0.469
Tyler Boyd 0.406
Dallas Goedert 0.339
Travis Kelce 0.326
Adrian Peterson 0.300
Adam Thielen 0.285
Todd Gurley 0.261
Albert Wilson 0.219
Chris Carson 0.217
Jakeem Grant 0.207
Christian McCaffrey 0.194
Kyle Rudolph 0.181
Saquon Barkley 0.162
George Kittle 0.155
Giovani Bernard 0.131
Wendell Smallwood 0.125
Christian Kirk 0.112
Javorius Allen 0.110
Chris Ivory 0.089
Royce Freeman 0.061
Josh Allen 0.061
Tavon Austin 0.049
Jaron Brown 0.045
Chris Conley 0.037
Anthony Miller 0.026
Laquon Treadwell 0.024
Andre Holmes 0.018
Martavis Bryant 0.016
Vyncint Smith 0.012
Kendrick Bourne 0.011
Austin Carr 0.011

The Buffalo Bills were a unanimous #1 choice with 17 points on $2,000 salary.

Pro Player’s

Christmas came early in Week 3. Bales and SaahilSud both played a ton of lineups but sadly they didn’t profit any $$.

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SaahilSud is Back

SaahilSud is back this week and entered 145 lineups with just 61 players.

He lost $960. While his point total distribution is respectable, it didn’t have any of the big winner’s needed to make his week a profitable one.

SaahilSud's Point Totals

Here’s his single player utilization (notice Corey Clement)

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matt Ryan 30 RB Corey Clement 50 WR Julio Jones 57 TE Eric Ebron 37 DST Texans 41
QB Cam Newton 22 RB Lamar Miller 37 WR Demaryius Thomas 42 TE Kyle Rudolph 26 DST Cowboys 20
QB Drew Brees 19 RB Alvin Kamara 33 WR Tyler Boyd 25 TE George Kittle 16 DST Eagles 18
QB Andrew Luck 12 RB Kareem Hunt 29 WR John Brown 22 TE Benjamin Watson 6 DST Vikings 17
QB Deshaun Watson 7 RB Giovani Bernard 22 WR Cooper Kupp 19
QB Russell Wilson 6 RB Christian McCaffrey 20 WR Michael Thomas 19
RB Dion Lewis 20 WR Devin Funchess 17
RB Ezekiel Elliott 19 WR A.J. Green 16
RB Tevin Coleman 17 WR T.Y. Hilton 15
RB Jordan Howard 15 WR Ted Ginn Jr. 13
RB Todd Gurley II 15 WR Nelson Agholor 13
RB Jordan Wilkins 8 WR Tyler Lockett 10
RB Wendell Smallwood 6 WR DeAndre Hopkins 7
WR Davante Adams 6

Notice the Corey Clement vs Wendell Smallwood usage.

SaahilSud used deliberate stacks with exposure limits. Here’s his frequent 2-pairs

Percentage Player
35 RB Corey Clement, WR Julio Jones
30 QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
26 DST Texans, WR Julio Jones
26 RB Lamar Miller, WR Julio Jones
25 DST Texans, RB Lamar Miller
25 RB Corey Clement, TE Eric Ebron
23 TE Eric Ebron, WR Julio Jones
23 WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Julio Jones
20 RB Alvin Kamara, WR Julio Jones
20 QB Cam Newton, RB Giovani Bernard
20 QB Cam Newton, RB Christian McCaffrey
19 RB Alvin Kamara, RB Corey Clement
19 RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Giovani Bernard
19 QB Matt Ryan, RB Corey Clement
18 DST Texans, RB Corey Clement
18 RB Lamar Miller, WR Demaryius Thomas
18 RB Corey Clement, WR Demaryius Thomas
17 TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Julio Jones
17 QB Cam Newton, WR Devin Funchess
17 DST Texans, WR Demaryius Thomas

Notably there’s a RB-DST stack with Lamar Miller and the Texans D. And a QB-RB stack with Cam-McCaffrey (QB-RB stacks work well when the QB is mobile or the RB is heavily involved in the passing game).

Glad to see SaahilSud back. I’m compiling this material into more comprehensive pro player strategy articles.

Bales is Playing More

Finally, finally, Bales ponied up more than $400 in the Milly Maker. I was getting worried he was becoming a DFS tool salesman and not a pro player but it looks like he is still very much playing.

Bale's Point Distribution

His point totals are slightly more impressive than SaahilSud’s.

Here’s his single player utilization. Bales went hard on the Panther’s game.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Cam Newton 88 RB Christian McCaffrey 83 WR Devin Funchess 66 TE Eric Ebron 47 DST Vikings 26
RB Tevin Coleman 41 WR Tyler Boyd 59 TE Jared Cook 24 DST Cowboys 24
RB Corey Clement 26 WR Larry Fitzgerald 33 TE Travis Kelce 15 DST Texans 21
RB Todd Gurley II 20 WR Allen Robinson II 30 TE Zach Ertz 6 DST Eagles 15
RB Melvin Gordon III 14 WR Robert Woods 29 DST Bears 7
RB David Johnson 14 WR Julio Jones 13 DST Ravens 6
RB Alvin Kamara 13 WR A.J. Green 12
RB Giovani Bernard 11 WR Michael Thomas 11
RB Kareem Hunt 11 WR Nelson Agholor 10
RB Latavius Murray 9 WR T.Y. Hilton 9
RB Jordan Howard 7 WR Demaryius Thomas 8
WR Randall Cobb 7
WR Keenan Allen 7
WR Cooper Kupp 6

He stacked McCaffrey with Newton in every lineup he played him!

Percentage Player
83 QB Cam Newton, RB Christian McCaffrey
66 QB Cam Newton, WR Devin Funchess
61 RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Devin Funchess
55 QB Cam Newton, WR Tyler Boyd
55 RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Tyler Boyd
41 QB Cam Newton, TE Eric Ebron
41 RB Christian McCaffrey, TE Eric Ebron
41 TE Eric Ebron, WR Devin Funchess
37 QB Cam Newton, RB Tevin Coleman
37 RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Tevin Coleman
36 RB Tevin Coleman, WR Tyler Boyd
34 WR Devin Funchess, WR Tyler Boyd
32 QB Cam Newton, WR Larry Fitzgerald
31 RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Larry Fitzgerald
28 QB Cam Newton, WR Allen Robinson II

Very aggressive strategy for Bales. It came close but didn’t quite win him cash, he lost $440 on $2,100 down.

I don’t show the following chart often but it’s very interesting in Bales case.

Bales Player Imbalance

This chart shows player and stack usage across all lineups. For most players it naturally resembles an exponential distribution that obeys Zipf’s Law. Here’s a more typical example of ChipotleAddict’s

ChipotleAddict's Player Imbalance

In Bales case it looks much more linear in the 0-25% range than I’m used to seeing. This is probably just a fluke due to his very aggressive Panthers plays in Week 3 or suggests Bales is balancing his lineup optimizer differently and using more mathematical constraints.

We’ll keep tracking him.

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chess_is_ok Remains the Most Mathematical Player

  • 92 players
  • 150 entries
  • lost $1,170.

Here’s his player imbalance chart

chess_is_ok player Imblance

See how much more different that is than Bales? Much, much smoother.

Here’s chess_is_ok’s single player utilization

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Deshaun Watson 13 RB Kareem Hunt 43 WR Allen Robinson II 24 TE Eric Ebron 37 DST Giants 13
QB Cam Newton 12 RB Ezekiel Elliott 33 WR Tyler Boyd 21 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 17 DST Cowboys 12
QB Patrick Mahomes 10 RB Alvin Kamara 31 WR Randall Cobb 20 TE Austin Hooper 17 DST Jaguars 12
QB Matt Ryan 9 RB Todd Gurley II 31 WR DeAndre Hopkins 20 TE Jared Cook 17 DST Panthers 11
QB Drew Brees 9 RB Lamar Miller 24 WR Robert Woods 17 TE Zach Ertz 9 DST Eagles 11
QB Jared Goff 9 RB Jordan Howard 24 WR Julio Jones 15 TE George Kittle 8 DST Texans 9
QB Carson Wentz 8 RB Corey Clement 22 WR A.J. Green 15 TE Travis Kelce 7 DST Bengals 8
QB Eli Manning 7 RB Latavius Murray 17 WR Keenan Allen 14 TE Evan Engram 7 DST Vikings 8
QB Blake Bortles 7 RB Kenyan Drake 6 WR Michael Thomas 13 TE Benjamin Watson 6
WR Cooper Kupp 13
WR Devin Funchess 13
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 13
WR T.Y. Hilton 12
WR Nelson Agholor 12
WR Sammy Watkins 11
WR Sterling Shepard 11
WR Demaryius Thomas 10
WR Larry Fitzgerald 10
WR Will Fuller V 9
WR Mohamed Sanu 8
WR Ted Ginn Jr. 8
WR Calvin Ridley 6
WR Albert Wilson 6
WR Tyreek Hill 6
WR Emmanuel Sanders 6
WR Keelan Cole 6
WR Donte Moncrief 6

Here’s his frequent stacks

Percentage Player
15 RB Kareem Hunt, RB Todd Gurley II
14 RB Kareem Hunt, TE Eric Ebron
13 RB Todd Gurley II, TE Eric Ebron
13 QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins
12 RB Kareem Hunt, TE Austin Hooper
12 RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Eric Ebron
12 WR A.J. Green, WR Tyler Boyd
12 WR A.J. Green, WR Devin Funchess
12 QB Cam Newton, WR Devin Funchess
11 RB Alvin Kamara, RB Ezekiel Elliott
11 RB Jordan Howard, RB Kareem Hunt
11 RB Todd Gurley II, WR Tyler Boyd
11 TE Eric Ebron, WR DeAndre Hopkins
11 WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Odell Beckham Jr.
10 RB Lamar Miller, TE Eric Ebron

It looks like chess_is_ok always stacks his QB. Cam-Funchess and Watson-Hopkins were his big ones in week 3.

And again he views the WR position as hardest to predict.

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Ending caught chasing with a lock

I’m sure everyone thinks it but boy pro players are just like the rest of us.

Last week ending played Kirk Cousins in 66% of his lineups. This time he felt so good about him that ending used a Kirk Cousins as a lock across his lineups.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Kirk Cousins 100 RB Corey Clement 95 WR Adam Thielen 91 TE Kyle Rudolph 97 DST Giants 11
RB Tevin Coleman 26 WR Michael Thomas 23 TE Eric Ebron 17 DST Bengals 10
RB Kareem Hunt 25 WR Julio Jones 23 DST Redskins 9
RB Todd Gurley II 22 WR Allen Robinson II 21 DST Packers 8
RB Kenyan Drake 17 WR Cooper Kupp 16 DST Colts 7
RB Giovani Bernard 17 WR Sammy Watkins 13 DST Eagles 7
RB Alvin Kamara 12 WR Demaryius Thomas 13 DST Panthers 6
RB Lamar Miller 12 WR Larry Fitzgerald 13 DST Cowboys 6
RB Ezekiel Elliott 10 WR Robert Woods 12 DST Chiefs 6
RB Christian McCaffrey 6 WR Stefon Diggs 12
RB Melvin Gordon III 6 WR Tyler Boyd 11
WR Jamison Crowder 9
WR Devin Funchess 8
WR Donte Moncrief 8
WR Randall Cobb 8
WR Tyler Lockett 7
WR Brandon Marshall 6

This week he had 83 players in his player pool, 87 last week, suggesting something methodical brings him to this number.

Corey Clement and all the Vikings players really brought him down.

Remember, any team can win on any given Sunday. Granted DFS is a game of risk/reward and I’m sure ending weighed his options before locking Cpt. Kirk., but still.. ouch.

If you do go hard on a team like ending did, I recommend you hedge with a sports bet on the teams. In this case taking the Bills +17 for $3,000 would’ve been a great idea (or some other wager size you are comfortable with).

Kirk Cousins meme

petrgibbons

This is the first time we’re looking at petrgibbons. He had the top pro performance of Week 3 with a $5,980 profit.

QB QB Percentage RB RB Percentage WR WR Percentage TE TE Percentage DST DST Percentage
QB Matt Ryan 33 RB Tevin Coleman 43 WR Michael Thomas 61 TE Eric Ebron 37 DST Cowboys 19
QB Drew Brees 20 RB Christian McCaffrey 38 WR Julio Jones 41 TE Austin Hooper 15 DST Eagles 15
QB Patrick Mahomes 13 RB Kareem Hunt 35 WR Tyler Boyd 41 TE Benjamin Watson 14 DST Ravens 10
QB Jimmy Garoppolo 13 RB Giovani Bernard 31 WR Nelson Agholor 31 TE George Kittle 12 DST Vikings 10
QB Jared Goff 7 RB Alvin Kamara 23 WR Calvin Ridley 23 TE Travis Kelce 10 DST Redskins 9
QB Deshaun Watson 7 RB Dion Lewis 20 WR Cooper Kupp 15 DST Chiefs 8
QB Blake Bortles 7 RB Lamar Miller 16 WR Robert Woods 13 DST Seahawks 8
RB Wendell Smallwood 15 WR Tyreek Hill 13 DST Cardinals 8
RB Kenyan Drake 15 WR Pierre Garcon 13 DST Texans 7
RB Melvin Gordon III 12 WR Sammy Watkins 11 DST Giants 7
RB Latavius Murray 10 WR Donte Moncrief 7
RB Todd Gurley II 8 WR DeAndre Hopkins 6
RB Corey Clement 8 WR Trent Taylor 6
RB Matt Breida 7
RB Jordan Wilkins 6

His playstyle looks projections/optimizer driven. Surprisingly he used a lot of different RB’s in week 3. He successfully played Wendell Smallwood more than Corey Clement and took the Saints-Falcon’s game to be high scoring.

petrgibbons also focused in on matchups with the Panthers-Bengals game.

Percentage Player
31 WR Julio Jones, WR Michael Thomas
27 QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
26 TE Eric Ebron, WR Michael Thomas
25 RB Kareem Hunt, WR Michael Thomas
24 QB Matt Ryan, WR Michael Thomas

I’d reckon his process starts from picking high scoring teams and games. We’ll track him next week and see if the trend continues and if he is methodical with his exposure limits.

Pro’s vs Herd

First let’s look at the leaderboards

Pro Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
petrgibbons 5980.0 150 39.866667
rockchalk88 1450.0 30 48.333333
foursons 1030.0 11 93.636364
shawnzhan -2670.0 150 -17.800000
dr.karl -2780.0 150 -18.533333
mrnastytime91 -2940.0 150 -19.600000

Herd Leaderboard

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
thehodgesfactor 999940.0 3 333313.333333
ohboi28 149980.0 1 149980.000000
yo11 99980.0 1 99980.000000
karlsbergto -2910.0 150 -19.400000
nemostars22 -2940.0 150 -19.600000
wpalango -2970.0 150 -19.800000

No one who maxed completely struck out. Damn, I was looking forward to ripping on a big spender..

Pro vs Herd Distributions

index Points_herd Points_pro
count 242540.000000 4352.000000
mean 138.789487 142.175120
std 26.916604 25.774641
min 17.300000 73.700000
25% 119.700000 123.090000
50% 137.100000 141.650000
75% 156.000000 159.350000
max 251.860000 238.860000

The herd had some sharp plays in Week 3. GO BEARS

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Will Fuller V 7 22 -15.0
Bears <5% 18 -15.0
Latavius Murray 14 26 -12.0
Keelan Cole <5% 15 -12.0
Matt Breida <5% 14 -11.0
Jordan Howard <5% 12 -9.0
Tyreek Hill 9 17 -8.0
Calvin Ridley <5% 11 -8.0
Patrick Mahomes 11 18 -7.0
Will Dissly <5% 9 -6.0
Tyler Boyd 16 10 6.0
Julio Jones 35 28 7.0
Eagles 10 <5% 7.0
Michael Thomas 27 19 8.0
Eric Ebron 32 24 8.0
Keenan Allen 12 <5% 9.0
Lamar Miller 14 5 9.0
Christian McCaffrey 20 10 10.0
Tevin Coleman 23 13 10.0
Robert Woods 16 6 10.0

But the herd also overplayed chalky plays like Latavius Murray or Jordan Howard. It’s also surprising to see how little Calvin Ridley was played by Pro’s (I picked Ridley but got killed by Corey Clement and Jordan Howard).

In the appendix you’ll see the full chart. Pro’s picked Clement 33% of the time!

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Announcements

View Past Recaps

All of our recaps for 2018 can be viewed here

The Milly Maker Entry Fee Changes

For week 4 the Milly Maker entry fee is just $10. Good luck and have fun

Thinking About Opponent Player Utilization

what-are-you-doing-i-never-know-what-youre-doing

Wedding Crashers Meatloaf Scene

I’ve been of the mindset that thinking about projected player utilization is a waste of time. Week after week of seeing the top possible lineup outperform the winner by so much I figured it’s best to go for the top lineup.

But my thoughts are changing.

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Reddit user: Garrincha67 shared this paper on DFS from Columbia. It argues for modeling opponents lineups and has some impressive results. I’m going to take a stab at replicating it and see if I can get it to work for me. Cool to see a professor with optimization theory experience formulate the problems.

Appendix

Pro vs Herd Single Player Utilization

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Will Fuller V 7 22 -15.0
Bears <5% 18 -15.0
Latavius Murray 14 26 -12.0
Keelan Cole <5% 15 -12.0
Matt Breida <5% 14 -11.0
Jordan Howard <5% 12 -9.0
Tyreek Hill 9 17 -8.0
Calvin Ridley <5% 11 -8.0
Patrick Mahomes 11 18 -7.0
Will Dissly <5% 9 -6.0
Chris Thompson <5% 8 -5.0
Vikings 8 13 -5.0
Kyle Rudolph <5% 7 -4.0
Adam Thielen <5% 7 -4.0
John Brown <5% 7 -4.0
Kenyan Drake 6 10 -4.0
Stefon Diggs <5% 7 -4.0
George Kittle 11 14 -3.0
Sammy Watkins 10 13 -3.0
Drew Brees 6 8 -2.0
T.Y. Hilton 7 9 -2.0
Jaguars <5% 5 -2.0
Ted Ginn Jr. <5% 5 -2.0
Brandin Cooks <5% 5 -2.0
Kirk Cousins <5% 5 -2.0
Alvin Kamara 18 20 -2.0
Cowboys 18 20 -2.0
Travis Kelce 10 11 -1.0
Deshaun Watson 8 9 -1.0
Saquon Barkley 6 6 0.0
Allen Robinson II 10 10 0.0
Jared Cook 8 7 1.0
Kareem Hunt 22 21 1.0
Odell Beckham Jr. 6 5 1.0
David Johnson 5 <5% 2.0
Corey Davis 5 <5% 2.0
Donte Moncrief 5 <5% 2.0
Matt Ryan 18 16 2.0
A.J. Green 7 5 2.0
Wendell Smallwood 6 <5% 3.0
Zach Ertz 8 5 3.0
Larry Fitzgerald 6 <5% 3.0
Mohamed Sanu 6 <5% 3.0
Corey Clement 33 30 3.0
Cooper Kupp 14 11 3.0
Cam Newton 9 6 3.0
Carson Wentz 6 <5% 3.0
Nelson Agholor 15 11 4.0
Chiefs 7 <5% 4.0
Ravens 7 <5% 4.0
Redskins 7 <5% 4.0
DeAndre Hopkins 10 6 4.0
Devin Funchess 10 6 4.0
Melvin Gordon III 10 6 4.0
Demaryius Thomas 7 <5% 4.0
Austin Hooper 13 8 5.0
Giovani Bernard 15 10 5.0
Jared Goff 8 <5% 5.0
Todd Gurley II 15 10 5.0
Texans 11 6 5.0
Ezekiel Elliott 12 6 6.0
Dion Lewis 9 <5% 6.0
Tyler Boyd 16 10 6.0
Julio Jones 35 28 7.0
Eagles 10 <5% 7.0
Michael Thomas 27 19 8.0
Eric Ebron 32 24 8.0
Keenan Allen 12 <5% 9.0
Lamar Miller 14 5 9.0
Christian McCaffrey 20 10 10.0
Tevin Coleman 23 13 10.0
Robert Woods 16 6 10.0

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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