Week 13 is in the books. ChipotleAddict had a huge bounce back week placing 3rd, Ending had another good showing, and chess_is_ok won with 241.14 points.
Let’s start off by analyzing chess_is_ok’s strategy.
Chess_is_ok’s Lineups and Strategies
chess_is_ok won 1,001,195 on 150 lineups. His top lineup was 241.14 but his lowest was just 62.28 (quite the spread!)
Optimizers be praised, if this guy were to tell you his top picks for the week it would be the Vikings Offense. But thanks to the optimizer gods he wins a million dollars. This guy forced a triple stack of Keenum-Thielen-Diggs in 42 of his lineups! So yea, asking for top picks in a GPP too narrow minded.
Below is his single player utilization
|49||Todd Gurley II|
chess_is_ok used 71 players, which is somewhat low but not as crazy as Al_Smizzle.
chess_is_ok Stacks All his QB’s
Take a look at this
|28||Adam Thielen, Case Keenum|
|28||Case Keenum, Stefon Diggs|
|20||Alex Smith, Travis Kelce|
|12||Cam Newton, Devin Funchess|
|11||Demaryius Thomas, Trevor Siemian|
|11||Emmanuel Sanders, Trevor Siemian|
Notice how all of his QB’s have stacks. Triple stacks for Case Keenum and Trevor Siemian of all people. It was his Alex Smith stack that won the day.
This strategy is like we’ve seen from Tommyg1979 but with more risk placed on the player groups than the player pool, Tommy G doesn’t always force his QB’s to have stacks, chess_is_ok does.
Besides that nothing too notable from chess_is_ok. Very cool, congratulations on the big win.
Last Week’s Winner Ending Places 22nd
Ending won last week and he cracked the top 200 this week, placing 22nd. Sadly the payouts between 1st and 22nd are way different.. ending only won $415 on his 150 lineups.
|49||Todd Gurley II|
He was real heavy on Carlos Hyde again but didn’t do enough to win the big bucks. Again, ending kept his stacks below 20%
|18||Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley II|
|16||Alex Collins, Mike Evans|
|14||Larry Fitzgerald, Todd Gurley II|
|13||Alex Collins, Todd Gurley II|
|12||Jaguars , Todd Gurley II|
|12||Julio Jones, Marshawn Lynch|
|12||Mike Evans, Todd Gurley II|
|11||Alex Collins, Jaguars|
|10||Carlos Hyde, Todd Gurley II|
|9||Carlos Hyde, Jaguars|
|9||Todd Gurley II, Travis Kelce|
|9||Jamaal Williams, Marshawn Lynch|
|9||Carlos Hyde, Stefon Diggs|
|9||Julio Jones, Matt Ryan|
|8||Jaguars , Mike Evans|
He plays a similar style to ex???-pro CONDIA with slightly more risk. ~100 players in his player pool vs ~110 for CONDIA.
Pro Meta: ChipotleAddict is Back
After a very disappointing Week 12 performance when ChipotleAddict placed 46th out of 49 pros he’s back placing just behind chess_is_ok. Here’s a look at pro earnings in Week 13
As a group, the pro’s accounted for 2% of all entries and won $1,147,030. Papagates did way better than his suspected collusion partner Al_Smizzle (further reinforcing the idea that no they did not cheat a few years back: link for reference).
Is TommyG1979 Out of Bankroll? UPDATE: No
He only entered 2 lineups and has been trending down in recent weeks. Sad to see.
Last Week Top Placers
nicky6 and toby3826 join the list of players who maxed lineups and won $0. Ouch
This is the first week we’ve seen the pro’s do better than the herd by over 1 point.
Here’s the single player utilization differences.
|lineup_hash||Percentage Pro||Percentage Herd||pro_favoritism|
|Todd Gurley II||34||20||14|
|Ted Ginn Jr.||<5%||8||<5%|
|Duke Johnson Jr.||<5%||6||<5%|
Pro’s got Jordan Howard right but missed on Demaryius Thomas. Knowing to pick the upside on Alex Smith-Tyreke Hill looks to be the biggest difference I see here. And that could come from pro’s generally playing more lineups.
Best Possible Lineup: 265.54 Points
There were at least 27,113 better lineups than chess_is_ok’s 241.14 points. The best lineup possible was
For “chalky” common DFS plays, Week 13 was a good week. Notice the RB-DST stack and QB-WR stack in the top lineup. And we’ve all seen these players before with the exception of Kenyan Drake. Even still, the unfortunate truth is that RB performance is much more team dependent than player dependent — and that’s reflected in how teams pay running backs.
By the way, you’re missing out if you haven’t read Jonathan Bales’ book The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS. Its full of position by position analysis and will give you plenty of new insights. And it only costs the same as 1 entry to the $1MM DraftKings contest.
Anyways… lets take a look at the winning lineups player pool.
|Green Bay Packers||0.049|
Tyreke Hill was a top play all-around, being used in 100% of lineups outscoring chess_is_ok’s 241.14 points. And the best defense last week was the Miami Dolphins.
The “A-Play” was picking the Jets-Chiefs game to be a shootout, and favoring Alex Smith and company. B+ play was Josh McCown and Co with Jermaine Kearse and Robby Anderson both making our top lists.
The State of NFL DFS
I’m glad to see the pro’s doing better again. We’ve seen a variety of different strategies take home first place and I do think there is skill involved, not just volume.
As for me, I’m taking a break from participating in DFS for a little bit until I rebuild my optimizer. From doing these posts, I’ve realized my own lineups place too much stock in predictions and need to create more heavily correlated pairs than max expected value subject to some constraints that boost correlation. (Last week my predictions source was Demaryius Thomas heavy and I had him in all my lineups..)
Future of these Posts
If you like these posts please, please support our Patreon page. If we reach our goal of $100 a month we will keep doing these posts every week.
Regardless, I’m planning on going through Week 17 in the NFL and running a NBA GPP pilot article before focusing on other things.
All of my old recap posts can be found here.