DraftKings Week 13 Recap

chess_is_ok's Week13 Winning Lineup 241.14

Week 13 is in the books. ChipotleAddict had a huge bounce back week placing 3rd, Ending had another good showing, and chess_is_ok won with 241.14 points.

chess_is_ok's Week13 Winning Lineup 241.14

Let’s start off by analyzing chess_is_ok’s strategy.

Chess_is_ok’s Lineups and Strategies

chess_is_ok won 1,001,195 on 150 lineups. His top lineup was 241.14 but his lowest was just 62.28 (quite the spread!)

Points
count 150.000000
mean 128.763733
std 34.490262
min 62.280000
25% 101.305000
50% 127.120000
75% 148.590000
max 241.140000

Optimizers be praised, if this guy were to tell you his top picks for the week it would be the Vikings Offense. But thanks to the optimizer gods he wins a million dollars. This guy forced a triple stack of Keenum-Thielen-Diggs in 42 of his lineups! So yea, asking for top picks in a GPP too narrow minded.

Below is his single player utilization

Percentage Player
49 Todd Gurley II
42 Michael Thomas
36 Travis Kelce
36 Demaryius Thomas
35 Adam Thielen
34 Austin Seferian-Jenkins
30 Carlos Hyde
30 Stefon Diggs
29 Theo Riddick
28 Case Keenum
27 Seth Roberts
26 Rams
26 Larry Fitzgerald
25 Emmanuel Sanders
24 Kareem Hunt

chess_is_ok used 71 players, which is somewhat low but not as crazy as Al_Smizzle.

chess_is_ok Stacks All his QB’s

Take a look at this

Percentage Player
28 Adam Thielen, Case Keenum
28 Case Keenum, Stefon Diggs
28 Case Keenum
20 Alex Smith, Travis Kelce
20 Alex Smith
12 Cam Newton, Devin Funchess
12 Cam Newton
11 Demaryius Thomas, Trevor Siemian
11 Emmanuel Sanders, Trevor Siemian
11 Trevor Siemian

Notice how all of his QB’s have stacks. Triple stacks for Case Keenum and Trevor Siemian of all people. It was his Alex Smith stack that won the day.

This strategy is like we’ve seen from Tommyg1979 but with more risk placed on the player groups than the player pool, Tommy G doesn’t always force his QB’s to have stacks, chess_is_ok does.

Besides that nothing too notable from chess_is_ok. Very cool, congratulations on the big win.

Last Week’s Winner Ending Places 22nd

Ending won last week and he cracked the top 200 this week, placing 22nd. Sadly the payouts between 1st and 22nd are way different.. ending only won $415 on his 150 lineups.

Percentage Player
49 Todd Gurley II
34 Michael Thomas
29 Alex Collins
29 Mike Evans
28 Jaguars
28 Carlos Hyde
25 Larry Fitzgerald
22 Kareem Hunt
20 Travis Kelce
19 Jamaal Williams
19 Marshawn Lynch
19 Stefon Diggs
19 Julio Jones
19 Adam Thielen
14 Austin Seferian-Jenkins

He was real heavy on Carlos Hyde again but didn’t do enough to win the big bucks. Again, ending kept his stacks below 20%

Percentage Player
18 Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley II
16 Alex Collins, Mike Evans
14 Larry Fitzgerald, Todd Gurley II
13 Alex Collins, Todd Gurley II
12 Jaguars , Todd Gurley II
12 Julio Jones, Marshawn Lynch
12 Mike Evans, Todd Gurley II
11 Alex Collins, Jaguars
10 Carlos Hyde, Todd Gurley II
9 Carlos Hyde, Jaguars
9 Todd Gurley II, Travis Kelce
9 Jamaal Williams, Marshawn Lynch
9 Carlos Hyde, Stefon Diggs
9 Julio Jones, Matt Ryan
8 Jaguars , Mike Evans

He plays a similar style to ex???-pro CONDIA with slightly more risk. ~100 players in his player pool vs ~110 for CONDIA.

Pro Meta: ChipotleAddict is Back

After a very disappointing Week 12 performance when ChipotleAddict placed 46th out of 49 pros he’s back placing just behind chess_is_ok. Here’s a look at pro earnings in Week 13

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
chess_is_ok 1001195.0 150 6674.633333
chipotleaddict 52245.0 150 348.300000
shawnzhan 39055.0 150 260.366667
ehafner 24735.0 150 164.900000
rikkidee 18385.0 150 122.566667
papagates 13400.0 150 89.333333
fallfromgrace 12400.0 150 82.666667
al_smizzle -1860.0 150 -12.400000
bidle -2055.0 150 -13.700000
nolesman -2215.0 150 -14.766667
flavorflav -2235.0 150 -14.900000
wakeywakey -2540.0 150 -16.933333
brandonadams -2900.0 150 -19.333333
mrnastytime91 -2910.0 150 -19.400000

As a group, the pro’s accounted for 2% of all entries and won $1,147,030. Papagates did way better than his suspected collusion partner Al_Smizzle (further reinforcing the idea that no they did not cheat a few years back: link for reference).

Is TommyG1979 Out of Bankroll? UPDATE: No

He only entered 2 lineups and has been trending down in recent weeks. Sad to see.

UPDATE: “TommyG was at the king of the beach last weekend so he mentioned he would only be making one or two lineups last week so he could focus on KOTB.”

Herd Meta

Last Week Top Placers

nicky6 and toby3826 join the list of players who maxed lineups and won $0. Ouch

payout lineups_entered payout/num_entries
screen_name
ravenrotty52 99950.0 4 24987.500000
rexgrossman 15290.0 150 101.933333
bayley22 9980.0 1 9980.000000
emileheskey 8715.0 150 58.100000
smitty42 8160.0 150 54.400000
acekilla7676 -2900.0 150 -19.333333
dannyoms -2910.0 150 -19.400000
zoltar91282 -2940.0 150 -19.600000
nicky6 -3000.0 150 -20.000000
toby3826 -3000.0 150 -20.000000

Pro/Herd Compared

index Points_herd Points_pro
count 181163.00000 3980.000000
mean 122.22869 126.839226
std 23.91981 28.969498
min 11.00000 47.680000
25% 105.50000 107.400000
50% 121.22000 123.130000
75% 137.90000 142.070000
max 240.24000 241.140000

This is the first week we’ve seen the pro’s do better than the herd by over 1 point.

Here’s the single player utilization differences.

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Jordan Howard 10 27 -17
Robby Anderson 7 20 -13
Keenan Allen 5 14 -9
Leonard Fournette 8 16 -8
Jared Cook 8 15 -7
DeAndre Hopkins 19 26 -7
Ravens 6 11 -5
Davante Adams 17 22 -5
Rex Burkhead 5 9 -4
Jaguars 11 15 -4
Cooper Kupp 5 9 -4
Tom Brady 5 8 -3
Josh McCown 6 9 -3
Raiders 7 8 -1
Case Keenum 9 10 -1
Adam Thielen 12 13 -1
Stefon Diggs 13 13 0
Devin Funchess 6 6 0
Jermaine Kearse 6 6 0
Chargers 20 20 0
Marshawn Lynch 17 16 1
Brett Hundley 9 8 1
Melvin Gordon 12 11 1
Rob Gronkowski 16 14 2
Jameis Winston 9 6 3
Rams 8 5 3
Emmanuel Sanders 11 7 4
Delanie Walker 12 8 4
Alex Collins 11 6 5
Mike Evans 25 20 5
Julio Jones 10 5 5
Brandin Cooks 13 7 6
Kareem Hunt 13 7 6
Seth Roberts 17 11 6
LeSean McCoy 11 5 6
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 13 5 8
Jamaal Williams 23 15 8
Kenyan Drake 20 11 9
Carlos Hyde 25 15 10
Travis Kelce 18 7 11
Larry Fitzgerald 17 5 12
Theo Riddick 20 7 13
Michael Thomas 27 14 13
Demaryius Thomas 22 9 13
Todd Gurley II 34 20 14
DeSean Jackson 9 <5% <5%
Trevor Siemian 9 <5% <5%
Tyreek Hill 8 <5% <5%
Titans 8 <5% <5%
Alex Smith 7 <5% <5%
Cordarrelle Patterson 6 <5% <5%
Saints 6 <5% <5%
Austin Hooper 6 <5% <5%
Broncos 5 <5% <5%
Jarvis Landry 5 <5% <5%
Dontrelle Inman 5 <5% <5%
Randall Cobb 5 <5% <5%
Hunter Henry <5% 16 <5%
Dion Lewis <5% 13 <5%
Josh Gordon <5% 11 <5%
Philip Rivers <5% 11 <5%
Alvin Kamara <5% 8 <5%
Dede Westbrook <5% 8 <5%
Kyle Rudolph <5% 8 <5%
Ted Ginn Jr. <5% 8 <5%
Marqise Lee <5% 7 <5%
Ricky Seals-Jones <5% 7 <5%
Duke Johnson Jr. <5% 6 <5%
Drew Brees <5% 6 <5%
Mohamed Sanu <5% 5 <5%
Jordy Nelson <5% 5 <5%
Marquise Goodwin <5% 5 <5%
Zay Jones <5% 5 <5%

Pro’s got Jordan Howard right but missed on Demaryius Thomas. Knowing to pick the upside on Alex Smith-Tyreke Hill looks to be the biggest difference I see here. And that could come from pro’s generally playing more lineups.

Best Possible Lineup: 265.54 Points

There were at least 27,113 better lineups than chess_is_ok’s 241.14 points. The best lineup possible was

player_name position score salary team_name
Alex Smith QB 40.64 5900.0 KC
Alvin Kamara RB 29.60 8400.0 NO
Rex Burkhead RB 25.30 5000.0 NE
Jermaine Kearse WR 27.70 4300.0 NYJ
Larry Fitzgerald WR 25.80 6000.0 ARI
Tyreek Hill WR 39.50 6700.0 KC
Evan Engram TE 22.90 5700.0 NYG
Kenyan Drake FLEX 26.10 4900.0 MIA
Miami Dolphins DST 28.00 2900.0 MIA
265.54 49800.0

For “chalky” common DFS plays, Week 13 was a good week. Notice the RB-DST stack and QB-WR stack in the top lineup. And we’ve all seen these players before with the exception of Kenyan Drake. Even still, the unfortunate truth is that RB performance is much more team dependent than player dependent — and that’s reflected in how teams pay running backs.

By the way, you’re missing out if you haven’t read Jonathan Bales’ book The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFSIts full of position by position analysis and will give you plenty of new insights. And it only costs the same as 1 entry to the $1MM DraftKings contest.

Anyways… lets take a look at the winning lineups player pool.

Name Percentage
Tyreek Hill 1.000
Miami Dolphins 0.951
Alex Smith 0.741
Alvin Kamara 0.637
Jermaine Kearse 0.637
Larry Fitzgerald 0.434
Kenyan Drake 0.300
Rob Gronkowski 0.276
Marqise Lee 0.264
Rex Burkhead 0.263
Robby Anderson 0.244
Travis Kelce 0.239
Mike Wallace 0.226
Alex Collins 0.223
Josh McCown 0.213
Kenny Stills 0.212
Jamaal Williams 0.200
Evan Engram 0.191
Marshawn Lynch 0.190
Marquise Goodwin 0.167
Peyton Barber 0.158
Stephen Anderson 0.117
Mark Ingram 0.117
Trent Taylor 0.107
Cameron Brate 0.092
David Njoku 0.085
Matt Forte 0.084
Keelan Cole 0.077
Theo Riddick 0.076
Cordarrelle Patterson 0.076
Dede Westbrook 0.067
Todd Gurley 0.062
Green Bay Packers 0.049
Josh Gordon 0.047
C.J. Anderson 0.044
Blake Bortles 0.043
Tarik Cohen 0.038
Bilal Powell 0.022
Tion Green 0.017
Travaris Cadet 0.005
Elijhaa Penny 0.004
Tom Savage 0.004
Kyle Juszczyk 0.002
Buffalo Bills 0.000

Tyreke Hill was a top play all-around, being used in 100% of lineups outscoring chess_is_ok’s 241.14 points. And the best defense last week was the Miami Dolphins.

The “A-Play” was picking the Jets-Chiefs game to be a shootout, and favoring Alex Smith and company. B+ play was Josh McCown and Co with Jermaine Kearse and Robby Anderson both making our top lists.

Announcements

The State of NFL DFS

I’m glad to see the pro’s doing better again. We’ve seen a variety of different strategies take home first place and I do think there is skill involved, not just volume.

As for me, I’m taking a break from participating in DFS for a little bit until I rebuild my optimizer. From doing these posts, I’ve realized my own lineups place too much stock in predictions and need to create more heavily correlated pairs than max expected value subject to some constraints that boost correlation. (Last week my predictions source was Demaryius Thomas heavy and I had him in all my lineups..)

Future of these Posts

If you like these posts please, please support our Patreon page. If we reach our goal of $100 a month we will keep doing these posts every week.

Regardless, I’m planning on going through Week 17 in the NFL and running a NBA GPP pilot article before focusing on other things.

All of my old recap posts can be found here

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