DraftKings Week 10 Recap
Here’s the quick info for Week 10
- Best Lineup Possible 257.58 Points
- Score to cash 128.86
- Sugarland59 won with 215.90
- At least 38,000 better lineups than 215.90 this week and they used an average salary of only $44,000.
- Pro’s did poorly again, so don’t be down on yourself if Week 10 was a rough one.
Let’s get to it.
The Winner: Sugarland59 Only Entered 1 Lineup
Sugarland59 won the $1MM with one entry, a Rams heavy roster.
The biggest surprise was DeMarco Murray getting 2 scores at 0.7% usage. But not much we can gleam from this one lineup. This is now the second 1 entry winner we’ve seen for the $1MM Maker.
The Best Lineup Possible was 257.58 Points
The best lineup was
No real surprises there besides the Falcon’s D.
There were at least 38,000 better lineups than Sugarland59’s 215.90. The player pool of these winning lineups is shown below
There’s quite a few surprising names there. Mitchell Trubisky?!? Did the Bears offense wake up enough to make them good for fantasy?
Also, a post on /r/dfsports inspired me to add this tidbit.
The average salary of these better lineups was only $44,000. So, don’t be scared about leaving significant salary on the table.
Specific Pro’s We’re Tracking
Thank god we asked for more pro’s to track because most of the original pro’s we were tracking in Week 1 weren’t very great.
Notable No Shows
- Saahil Sud
Anyone see these guys on DraftKings or FanDuel lately? Are they tearing up other contests?
Jonathan Bales Lost $300 in the $1MM Maker
He’s done well on FanDuel but has yet to do anything in the $1MM maker, cashing only 3/20 lineups in Week 10.
Very Bilal Powell heavy, like most pro’s, and Bales faded the studs of Week 10.
He didn’t like Julio Jones this week as much as Mohamed Sanu — sadly I agreed and only cashed 1/20 lineups in Week 10, like a pro…
Here’s his two pairs/stacks.
|19||Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell|
|19||Bilal Powell, Dez Bryant|
|19||Dez Bryant, Mohamed Sanu|
|19||Bilal Powell, Cameron Brate|
|14||Bilal Powell, Le’Veon Bell|
|14||Bilal Powell, Giants|
|14||Giants , Le’Veon Bell|
|14||Carlos Hyde, Marqise Lee|
|14||Drew Brees, Michael Thomas|
|14||A.J. Green, Bilal Powell|
|14||Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard|
|14||Bilal Powell, Sterling Shepard|
|14||Jordan Howard, Sterling Shepard|
|14||Kyle Rudolph, LeSean McCoy|
Note that AB, Dez Bryant are on top of this list. Very high percentage given to the pricey consistent studs.
All in all, a bad week for fading the Rams and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
CSURAM88 Took a Beating Cashing None of His 8 Lineups
He faded Robert Woods and played a ton of Bilal Powell.
As for stacks/pairs, AB-Bilal Powell was played in 50% of his lineups so yea, not a great week.
Gunslinger Tommyg1979 Only Enters 20
I was really hoping for Tommy G to brighten my day but man did he suck too. He lost $310 on $400 down — Performing slightly better than Bales.
|24||Todd Gurley II|
As far as lineups go, his top played stack was Josh McCown-Robby Anderson at 15%. One interesting tid-bit is that he used Marquise Goodwin-Robby Anderson as a “swap” player. He never played the two together but used one or the other as a key fixture in all of his lineups.
Take a look at these triple stack/pairs
|19||Bilal Powell, Carlos Hyde, Marquise Goodwin|
|19||Bilal Powell, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin|
|19||Bilal Powell, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Dak Prescott|
|19||Bilal Powell, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Marquise Goodwin|
|19||C.J. Fiedorowicz, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Robby Anderson|
|14||Josh McCown, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson|
|14||Bilal Powell, Dak Prescott, Leonard Fournette|
|14||Bilal Powell, Carlos Hyde, Dak Prescott|
|14||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette|
|14||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson|
|14||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Leonard Fournette, Robby Anderson|
|14||Carlos Hyde, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Bilal Powell, Leonard Fournette, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Dak Prescott, Leonard Fournette, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Antonio Brown, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Antonio Brown, Carlos Hyde, Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Bilal Powell, Jets , Marquise Goodwin|
|14||Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell, Dak Prescott|
Surprisingly, he played Carlos Hyde and Marquise Goodwin together. Typically negative correlation. RB-WR stacks don’t faze many pro’s.
Al_Smizzle Lost $1,790 on 150 Lineups
With George Kittle out (who?!? you know. That 49er’s rookie TE that was a stud in Week 6), Al_Smizzle took a big chance on Garrett Celek, playing him in 41% of his lineups. And he was rewarded with 16.7 DK points on $2,500.
|24||Todd Gurley II|
Smizzle still got burned by Bilal Powell and the Bears D though. And that’s why he didn’t do too hot.
Remarkably, Al_Smizzle only used 42 players in Week 10. Continuing our belief that he is a player pool heavy DFS Pro.
His highest stack was Stafford-Tate at 15%
|28||A.J. Green, Marcus Mariota|
|21||Bilal Powell, Le’Veon Bell|
|20||Bilal Powell, Matthew Stafford|
|20||Bilal Powell, Cameron Brate|
|19||Bears , Bilal Powell|
|19||Bilal Powell, Lions|
|18||Bilal Powell, Golden Tate|
|18||Garrett Celek, Jordan Howard|
|18||Bears , Le’Veon Bell|
|17||Bilal Powell, Garrett Celek|
|17||A.J. Green, Garrett Celek|
|16||Cameron Brate, Lions|
|16||Bilal Powell, Sterling Shepard|
|16||Matthew Stafford, Rams|
|16||A.J. Green, Bilal Powell|
|16||A.J. Green, Jordan Howard|
|16||Bears , Garrett Celek|
|16||Bilal Powell, Julio Jones|
|16||Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell|
|15||Golden Tate, Matthew Stafford|
Correctly, choosing Tate over Marvin Jones Jr. In other news check out Marvin Jones Jr.’s pipes
Lions WR Marvin Jones Jr. auditioned for American Idol and blew away the judges. pic.twitter.com/kJNnzSYUwq
— LeadingNFL ™ (@LeadingNFL) November 15, 2017
All in all, I think we’re starting to see a trend with Al_Smizzle’s play style. Heavy player pool selection. As the weeks go on, we’ll try and see if we can narrow down why A.J. Green was played more than Antonio Brown in Week 10 or if there are any other insights we can find.
ChipotleAddict Wins $280 on 150 Lineups
Top of the pro class we’re tracking, ChipotleAddict actually made money in the $1MM maker. In a large part to him playing Marqise Lee at 32% and Bilal Powell at 14%. Here’s his top players by utilization.
|28||Todd Gurley II|
ChipotleAddict’s top stack was Kirk Cousin-Josh Doctson at 11% (making sure Doctson was paired with Cousins in ~80% of the lineups Doctson was in). Overall, he hoped for the Redskins Offense to have a great day but it was only good not great. (Great would be like the Texans vs Seahawks a few weeks back..)
Here’s his stacks/pairs
|19||DeSean Jackson, Jordan Howard|
|18||Jordan Howard, Marqise Lee|
|14||Jordan Howard, Julio Jones|
|13||Jordan Howard, Lions|
|13||Marqise Lee, Melvin Gordon|
|12||Jordan Howard, Robert Woods|
|12||DeSean Jackson, Todd Gurley II|
|12||Marqise Lee, Todd Gurley II|
|12||Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley II|
|12||Jordan Howard, Michael Thomas|
|12||Jordan Howard, Leonard Fournette|
|12||Jordan Howard, LeSean McCoy|
|12||LeSean McCoy, Marqise Lee|
|11||Lions , Marqise Lee|
|11||DeSean Jackson, Robby Anderson|
|11||Jordan Howard, Marquise Goodwin|
|11||Josh Doctson, Kirk Cousins|
Now how did he know to take Marqise Lee over Bilal Powell? We’ll keep our eyes out for any more trends like this with upstart players.
Anyways, well done ChipotleAddict. You beat the Jets trap.
In Week 10, the pro’s (top 50 on Rotogrinders) accounted for 4,170 entries or 2.3% of the lineups in the $1MM contest. As a group they paid DraftKings $83,400 and lost $65,170. ChipotleAddict performed the best but Bilal Powell burned just about all of them.
|23||Todd Gurley II|
They played a heavy dose of Bilal Powell with Forte out. I’m glad to see even the pro’s got burned too.
New Table! Pro vs Herd
|lineup_hash||Percentage Pro||Percentage Herd||pro_favoritism|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||5||19||-14|
|Todd Gurley II||23||14||9|
|Duke Johnson Jr.||6||<5%||+|
At first glance, recent performance is a strong indication of pro vs herd player usage. The pro’s faded Robert Woods, Marvin Jones Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Robby Anderson going (1/4). But then the herd underplayed Marqise Lee which suggests the pro’s faded notable non WR1 Week 9 WRs rather than all solid Week 9 players.
In a season review post we’ll take a look at how this chart compares across weeks to see if we can come up with more powerful generalizations.
The Herd Meta
The herd seemed to play smarter than the pro’s in Week 10. Their average score was 111.58
Whereas the pro’s had an average of 110.11
The most used players were
|19||Marvin Jones Jr.|
|14||Todd Gurley II|
Like the pro’s, Bilal Powell hurt 44% of the herd. And in spite of Marvin Jones Jr.’s big Week 9 performance, Golden Tate got more usage.
The most played QB-WR stack was Matthew Stafford-Golden Tate at 9% followed by Stafford-Marvin Jones Jr. at 8%.
|16||Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell|
|14||Bilal Powell, Le’Veon Bell|
|14||Bears , Bilal Powell|
|12||Bilal Powell, Sterling Shepard|
|12||Bilal Powell, Jordan Howard|
|11||A.J. Green, Bilal Powell|
|11||Bilal Powell, Cameron Brate|
|11||Bears , Jordan Howard|
|11||Bilal Powell, Julio Jones|
|9||Bilal Powell, Golden Tate|
|9||Bears , Le’Veon Bell|
|9||Golden Tate, Matthew Stafford|
|8||Le’Veon Bell, Sterling Shepard|
|8||Jordan Howard, Sterling Shepard|
|8||Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson|
|8||Jordan Howard, Robby Anderson|
|8||Cameron Brate, Jordan Howard|
|8||Bilal Powell, Matthew Stafford|
|8||Bilal Powell, Leonard Fournette|
|8||Antonio Brown, Bears|
|8||Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard|
|8||Marvin Jones Jr., Matthew Stafford|
So there you have it. We hope you liked the new Herd vs Pro table.
If you have any suggestions feel free to send them to firstname.lastname@example.org or comment below.
NBA Recap Coming Soon!
Thanks in a large part to our Patreon campaign, we are going to take a shot at doing an NBA Recap. Stayed tuned. And if you selected NBA or “Everything” as your interest preference on our email list, we’ll send you a link once it’s ready.
Also, we’ll be adding the next installment of our How Sharks Approach DFS Series focusing on WR’s before next week’s recap.
Otherwise, thank you for reading. Our other NFL recaps can be found here.