DraftKings Week 10 Recap

Here’s the quick info for Week 10

  • Best Lineup Possible 257.58 Points
  • Score to cash 128.86
  • Sugarland59 won with 215.90
  • At least 38,000 better lineups than 215.90 this week and they used an average salary of only $44,000.
  • Pro’s did poorly again, so don’t be down on yourself if Week 10 was a rough one.

Also, we’ve added a new table that highlights the difference player utilization by pro’s and everyone else (thanks to Yves-Marie for his suggestion last week!).

Let’s get to it.

The Winner: Sugarland59 Only Entered 1 Lineup

Sugarland59 won the $1MM with one entry, a Rams heavy roster.

Sugarland59's Winning Lineup 215.90

The biggest surprise was DeMarco Murray getting 2 scores at 0.7% usage. But not much we can gleam from this one lineup. This is now the second 1 entry winner we’ve seen for the $1MM Maker.

The Best Lineup Possible was 257.58 Points

The best lineup was

player_name position score salary team_name
Kirk Cousins QB 31.58 5900.0 WAS
Mark Ingram RB 34.10 7400.0 NO
DeMarco Murray RB 29.20 5000.0 TEN
Sterling Shepard WR 28.20 5500.0 NYG
Robert Woods WR 40.10 5000.0 LAR
Adam Thielen WR 33.60 6700.0 MIN
Austin Hooper TE 16.90 3000.0 ATL
Austin Ekeler FLEX 27.90 3900.0 LAC
Atlanta Falcons DST 16.00 2400.0 ATL
Total   257.58 44,800  

No real surprises there besides the Falcon’s D.

There were at least 38,000 better lineups than Sugarland59’s 215.90. The player pool of these winning lineups is shown below

Name Percentage
Robert Woods 0.928
Mark Ingram 0.670
Adam Thielen 0.585
Atlanta Falcons 0.559
Sterling Shepard 0.435
Chester Rogers 0.415
DeMarco Murray 0.396
Austin Ekeler 0.370
Kirk Cousins 0.367
A.J. Green 0.328
Case Keenum 0.325
Alvin Kamara 0.310
Michael Thomas 0.302
Brandon LaFell 0.298
Garrett Celek 0.296
Austin Hooper 0.293
Marqise Lee 0.250
Indianapolis Colts 0.232
Vernon Davis 0.215
Cleveland Browns 0.210
DeShone Kizer 0.206
Evan Engram 0.196
Isaiah Crowell 0.154
Todd Gurley 0.139
Charles Sims 0.097
Corey Grant 0.094
Trey Edmunds 0.085
Mitchell Trubisky 0.080
Giovani Bernard 0.074
Elijah McGuire 0.071
Nathan Peterman 0.022

There’s quite a few surprising names there. Mitchell Trubisky?!? Did the Bears offense wake up enough to make them good for fantasy?

Also, a post on /r/dfsports inspired me to add this tidbit.

Salary vs Points of Better than Winner Lineups

The average salary of these better lineups was only $44,000. So, don’t be scared about leaving significant salary on the table.

Specific Pro’s We’re Tracking

Thank god we asked for more pro’s to track because most of the original pro’s we were tracking in Week 1 weren’t very great.

Notable No Shows

  • CONDIA
  • Saahil Sud

Anyone see these guys on DraftKings or FanDuel lately? Are they tearing up other contests?

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Jonathan Bales Lost $300 in the $1MM Maker

He’s done well on FanDuel but has yet to do anything in the $1MM maker, cashing only 3/20 lineups in Week 10.

Percentage Player
44 Bilal Powell
29 A.J. Green
29 Devonta Freeman
24 Le’Veon Bell
24 Giants
24 Marqise Lee
24 Carlos Hyde
24 Antonio Brown
24 Sterling Shepard
24 Jordan Howard
24 Dez Bryant
19 Michael Thomas
19 Adam Humphries
19 Matt Ryan

Very Bilal Powell heavy, like most pro’s, and Bales faded the studs of Week 10.

He didn’t like Julio Jones this week as much as Mohamed Sanu — sadly I agreed and only cashed 1/20 lineups in Week 10, like a pro…

Here’s his two pairs/stacks.

Percentage Player
19 Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell
19 Bilal Powell, Dez Bryant
19 Dez Bryant, Mohamed Sanu
19 Bilal Powell, Cameron Brate
14 Bilal Powell, Le’Veon Bell
14 Bilal Powell, Giants
14 Giants , Le’Veon Bell
14 Carlos Hyde, Marqise Lee
14 Drew Brees, Michael Thomas
14 A.J. Green, Bilal Powell
14 Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard
14 Bilal Powell, Sterling Shepard
14 Jordan Howard, Sterling Shepard
14 Kyle Rudolph, LeSean McCoy

Note that AB, Dez Bryant are on top of this list. Very high percentage given to the pricey consistent studs.

All in all, a bad week for fading the Rams and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

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CSURAM88 Took a Beating Cashing None of His 8 Lineups

He faded Robert Woods and played a ton of Bilal Powell.

Percentage Player
62 Bilal Powell
49 Golden Tate
49 Devonta Freeman
49 Antonio Brown
49 Ryan Fitzpatrick
49 Cameron Brate
37 Austin Seferian-Jenkins
37 Rams
37 Orleans Darkwa
37 Chris Godwin
37 LeSean McCoy
37 Jordan Howard
37 Bears
24 Sammy Watkins

As for stacks/pairs, AB-Bilal Powell was played in 50% of his lineups so yea, not a great week.

Gunslinger Tommyg1979 Only Enters 20

I was really hoping for Tommy G to brighten my day but man did he suck too. He lost $310 on $400 down — Performing slightly better than Bales.

Percentage Player
44 Le’Veon Bell
44 Bilal Powell
29 Robby Anderson
29 Dak Prescott
29 Carlos Hyde
29 Leonard Fournette
24 Jordan Howard
24 Todd Gurley II
24 Julio Jones
24 Marquise Goodwin
24 Chris Godwin
24 Antonio Brown
19 Golden Tate
19 Evan Engram

As far as lineups go, his top played stack was Josh McCown-Robby Anderson at 15%. One interesting tid-bit is that he used Marquise Goodwin-Robby Anderson as a “swap” player. He never played the two together but used one or the other as a key fixture in all of his lineups.

Take a look at these triple stack/pairs

Percentage Player
19 Bilal Powell, Carlos Hyde, Marquise Goodwin
19 Bilal Powell, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin
19 Bilal Powell, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Dak Prescott
19 Bilal Powell, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Marquise Goodwin
19 C.J. Fiedorowicz, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin
14 Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Robby Anderson
14 Josh McCown, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson
14 Bilal Powell, Dak Prescott, Leonard Fournette
14 Bilal Powell, Carlos Hyde, Dak Prescott
14 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette
14 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson
14 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Leonard Fournette, Robby Anderson
14 Carlos Hyde, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin
14 Bilal Powell, Leonard Fournette, Marquise Goodwin
14 Dak Prescott, Leonard Fournette, Marquise Goodwin
14 Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell, Marquise Goodwin
14 Antonio Brown, Dak Prescott, Marquise Goodwin
14 Antonio Brown, Carlos Hyde, Marquise Goodwin
14 Bilal Powell, Jets , Marquise Goodwin
14 Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell, Dak Prescott

Surprisingly, he played Carlos Hyde and Marquise Goodwin together. Typically negative correlation. RB-WR stacks don’t faze many pro’s.

Al_Smizzle Lost $1,790 on 150 Lineups

With George Kittle out (who?!? you know. That 49er’s rookie TE that was a stud in Week 6), Al_Smizzle took a big chance on Garrett Celek, playing him in 41% of his lineups. And he was rewarded with 16.7 DK points on $2,500.

Percentage Player
60 Bilal Powell
41 Garrett Celek
34 Bears
34 Le’Veon Bell
33 A.J. Green
32 Jordan Howard
30 Matthew Stafford
30 Lions
28 Cameron Brate
28 Marcus Mariota
25 Sterling Shepard
25 Golden Tate
25 Robby Anderson
25 Julio Jones
25 Antonio Brown
24 Todd Gurley II
22 Chris Godwin
22 Adam Humphries
20 Rams
20 Mohamed Sanu

Smizzle still got burned by Bilal Powell and the Bears D though. And that’s why he didn’t do too hot.

Remarkably, Al_Smizzle only used 42 players in Week 10. Continuing our belief that he is a player pool heavy DFS Pro.

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His highest stack was Stafford-Tate at 15%

Percentage Player
28 A.J. Green, Marcus Mariota
21 Bilal Powell, Le’Veon Bell
20 Bilal Powell, Matthew Stafford
20 Bilal Powell, Cameron Brate
19 Bears , Bilal Powell
19 Bilal Powell, Lions
18 Bilal Powell, Golden Tate
18 Garrett Celek, Jordan Howard
18 Bears , Le’Veon Bell
17 Bilal Powell, Garrett Celek
17 A.J. Green, Garrett Celek
16 Cameron Brate, Lions
16 Bilal Powell, Sterling Shepard
16 Matthew Stafford, Rams
16 A.J. Green, Bilal Powell
16 A.J. Green, Jordan Howard
16 Bears , Garrett Celek
16 Bilal Powell, Julio Jones
16 Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell
15 Golden Tate, Matthew Stafford

Correctly, choosing Tate over Marvin Jones Jr. In other news check out Marvin Jones Jr.’s pipes

All in all, I think we’re starting to see a trend with Al_Smizzle’s play style. Heavy player pool selection. As the weeks go on, we’ll try and see if we can narrow down why A.J. Green was played more than Antonio Brown in Week 10 or if there are any other insights we can find.

ChipotleAddict Wins $280 on 150 Lineups

Top of the pro class we’re tracking, ChipotleAddict actually made money in the $1MM maker. In a large part to him playing Marqise Lee at 32% and Bilal Powell at 14%. Here’s his top players by utilization.

Percentage Player
52 Jordan Howard
36 DeSean Jackson
36 Marqise Lee
29 Lions
28 Todd Gurley II
27 LeSean McCoy
26 Julio Jones
26 Orleans Darkwa
26 Melvin Gordon
25 Joe Mixon
25 Michael Thomas
23 Leonard Fournette
22 Vernon Davis
22 Robert Woods
21 Marquise Goodwin
20 Robby Anderson
20 Tyler Kroft
18 Alvin Kamara
18 Kirk Cousins
14 Bilal Powell

ChipotleAddict’s top stack was Kirk Cousin-Josh Doctson at 11% (making sure Doctson was paired with Cousins in ~80% of the lineups Doctson was in). Overall, he hoped for the Redskins Offense to have a great day but it was only good not great. (Great would be like the Texans vs Seahawks a few weeks back..)

Here’s his stacks/pairs

Percentage Player
19 DeSean Jackson, Jordan Howard
18 Jordan Howard, Marqise Lee
14 Jordan Howard, Julio Jones
13 Jordan Howard, Lions
13 Marqise Lee, Melvin Gordon
12 Jordan Howard, Robert Woods
12 DeSean Jackson, Todd Gurley II
12 Marqise Lee, Todd Gurley II
12 Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley II
12 Jordan Howard, Michael Thomas
12 Jordan Howard, Leonard Fournette
12 Jordan Howard, LeSean McCoy
12 LeSean McCoy, Marqise Lee
11 Lions , Marqise Lee
11 DeSean Jackson, Robby Anderson
11 Jordan Howard, Marquise Goodwin
11 Josh Doctson, Kirk Cousins

Now how did he know to take Marqise Lee over Bilal Powell? We’ll keep our eyes out for any more trends like this with upstart players.

Anyways, well done ChipotleAddict. You beat the Jets trap.

Pro Meta

In Week 10, the pro’s (top 50 on Rotogrinders) accounted for 4,170 entries or 2.3% of the lineups in the $1MM contest. As a group they paid DraftKings $83,400 and lost $65,170. ChipotleAddict performed the best but Bilal Powell burned just about all of them.

Percentage Player
49 Bilal Powell
37 Le’Veon Bell
31 Jordan Howard
26 Julio Jones
25 Antonio Brown
23 LeSean McCoy
23 Todd Gurley II
23 Cameron Brate
22 Bears
22 Carlos Hyde
20 Sterling Shepard
19 Adam Humphries
18 Michael Thomas
17 DeSean Jackson

They played a heavy dose of Bilal Powell with Forte out. I’m glad to see even the pro’s got burned too.

New Table! Pro vs Herd

lineup_hash Percentage Pro Percentage Herd pro_favoritism
Marvin Jones Jr. 5 19 -14
Matthew Stafford 7 19 -12
Leonard Fournette 11 23 -12
Robby Anderson 12 23 -11
Robert Woods 6 14 -8
Melvin Gordon 5 12 -7
Golden Tate 14 20 -6
Bears 22 28 -6
Orleans Darkwa 11 15 -4
Sterling Shepard 20 24 -4
A.J. Green 16 20 -4
Garrett Celek 10 12 -2
Rams 15 16 -1
Mohamed Sanu 10 11 -1
Ben Roethlisberger 8 9 -1
Cameron Brate 23 24 -1
Antonio Brown 25 26 -1
Jordan Howard 31 32 -1
Steelers 5 5 0
Eli Manning 10 10 0
Lions 12 11 1
Jaguars 6 5 1
Devonta Freeman 13 9 4
Bilal Powell 49 44 5
Evan Engram 15 10 5
Carlos Hyde 22 17 5
Ryan Fitzpatrick 14 9 5
DeSean Jackson 17 10 7
Adam Humphries 19 12 7
Julio Jones 26 19 7
Le’Veon Bell 37 30 7
Matt Ryan 15 8 7
Marqise Lee 14 5 9
Todd Gurley II 23 14 9
Austin Hooper 16 6 10
Michael Thomas 18 5 13
LeSean McCoy 23 9 14
Joe Mixon 8 <5% +
Dez Bryant 8 <5% +
Giants 7 <5% +
Jermaine Kearse 7 <5% +
Marquise Goodwin 7 <5% +
Duke Johnson Jr. 6 <5% +
Titans 6 <5% +
Chris Godwin 6 <5% +
Adam Thielen 5 <5% +
Jason Witten 5 <5% +
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 5 <5% +
C.J. Beathard 5 <5% +
Jack Doyle 5 <5% +
JuJu Smith-Schuster <5% 15
Jared Goff <5% 9
Alvin Kamara <5% 9
Kyle Rudolph <5% 9
Cooper Kupp <5% 7
Josh McCown <5% 7
Eric Ebron <5% 6
Sammy Watkins <5% 6
Jerick McKinnon <5% 5
Jets <5% 5
Dak Prescott <5% 5
Corey Davis <5% 5

At first glance, recent performance is a strong indication of pro vs herd player usage. The pro’s faded Robert Woods, Marvin Jones Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Robby Anderson going (1/4). But then the herd underplayed Marqise Lee which suggests the pro’s faded notable non WR1 Week 9 WRs rather than all solid Week 9 players.

In a season review post we’ll take a look at how this chart compares across weeks to see if we can come up with more powerful generalizations.

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The Herd Meta

The herd seemed to play smarter than the pro’s in Week 10. Their average score was 111.58

Points
count 172300.000000
mean 111.581371
std 23.133399
min 0.000000
25% 95.360000
50% 110.200000
75% 126.460000
max 215.900000

Whereas the pro’s had an average of 110.11

Points
count 4170.000000
mean 110.115290
std 21.629686
min 34.240000
25% 94.100000
50% 109.470000
75% 124.120000
max 193.680000

The most used players were

Percentage Player
44 Bilal Powell
32 Jordan Howard
30 Le’Veon Bell
28 Bears
26 Antonio Brown
24 Sterling Shepard
24 Cameron Brate
23 Robby Anderson
23 Leonard Fournette
20 Golden Tate
20 A.J. Green
19 Julio Jones
19 Matthew Stafford
19 Marvin Jones Jr.
17 Carlos Hyde
16 Rams
15 JuJu Smith-Schuster
15 Orleans Darkwa
14 Robert Woods
14 Todd Gurley II

Like the pro’s, Bilal Powell hurt 44% of the herd. And in spite of Marvin Jones Jr.’s big Week 9 performance, Golden Tate got more usage.

The most played QB-WR stack was Matthew Stafford-Golden Tate at 9% followed by Stafford-Marvin Jones Jr. at 8%.

Percentage Player
16 Antonio Brown, Bilal Powell
14 Bilal Powell, Le’Veon Bell
14 Bears , Bilal Powell
12 Bilal Powell, Sterling Shepard
12 Bilal Powell, Jordan Howard
11 A.J. Green, Bilal Powell
11 Bilal Powell, Cameron Brate
11 Bears , Jordan Howard
11 Bilal Powell, Julio Jones
9 Bilal Powell, Golden Tate
9 Bears , Le’Veon Bell
9 Golden Tate, Matthew Stafford
8 Le’Veon Bell, Sterling Shepard
8 Jordan Howard, Sterling Shepard
8 Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson
8 Jordan Howard, Robby Anderson
8 Cameron Brate, Jordan Howard
8 Bilal Powell, Matthew Stafford
8 Bilal Powell, Leonard Fournette
8 Antonio Brown, Bears
8 Antonio Brown, Jordan Howard
8 Marvin Jones Jr., Matthew Stafford

Announcements

So there you have it. We hope you liked the new Herd vs Pro table.

If you have any suggestions feel free to send them to matteo@sportsdatadirect.com or comment below.

NBA Recap Coming Soon!

Thanks in a large part to our Patreon campaign, we are going to take a shot at doing an NBA Recap. Stayed tuned. And if you selected NBA or “Everything” as your interest preference on our email list, we’ll send you a link once it’s ready.

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Also, we’ll be adding the next installment of our How Sharks Approach DFS Series focusing on WR’s before next week’s recap.

Otherwise, thank you for reading. Our other NFL recaps can be found here.

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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