DraftKings Week 9 Recap
As a whole, DraftKings made $1,151,780 more than doubling last weeks total! Adaptive contest sizing is important ya’ll.
Here’s summary stats on lineups.
The average score was 130.826 but you needed 149.14 to cash. Let’s look at Week 9’s Winner jamesgames44.
Jamesgames44 Wins with 214.36
Week 9’s winner was Jamesgames44. He entered 150 lineups and took home $1,000,920.
Look at that nice skew he got. What a week.
He used a lot of “chalk” plays but missed on 2 of his top 3 picks, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram.
|48||Todd Gurley II|
But that’s why you’re better off max entering lineups in GPP’s. We looked at his stacks and they look pretty circumstantial besides Drew Brees-Michael Thomas at 35%. (By circumstantial I mean, the percentage utilization of his stacked players does not appear deliberate ala TommyG1979. You would expect an optimizer to get around the values we sa given the 1-pair percentages above).
|47||Carlos Hyde, Michael Thomas|
|38||Jack Doyle, Michael Thomas|
|36||Carlos Hyde, Jack Doyle|
|35||Drew Brees, Michael Thomas|
|34||Carlos Hyde, T.Y. Hilton|
|34||Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram|
|31||Eagles , Todd Gurley II|
|31||Mark Ingram, T.Y. Hilton|
|30||Michael Thomas, T.Y. Hilton|
|29||Michael Thomas, Todd Gurley II|
|29||Doug Baldwin, Jack Doyle|
|28||Carlos Hyde, Todd Gurley II|
|27||Eagles , Michael Thomas|
|27||Doug Baldwin, Michael Thomas|
|27||Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas|
|25||Carlos Hyde, Drew Brees|
|24||Carlos Hyde, Doug Baldwin|
|23||T.Y. Hilton, Todd Gurley II|
|21||Jack Doyle, T.Y. Hilton|
|20||Eagles , Mark Ingram|
|20||Doug Baldwin, Eagles|
|20||Drew Brees, Eagles|
|20||Carlos Hyde, Jaguars|
|19||Mark Ingram, Todd Gurley II|
|19||Drew Brees, Todd Gurley II|
Like most pro’s, he saw no issue stacking Mark Ingram with Michael Thomas. He also stacked Alvin Kamara-Mark Ingram in 6% of his lineups.
A New Meta: Jamesgames44 Wins with his Player Pool
We’ve seen CONDIA use 110+ players a week but Jamesgames44 only used 60 players across his 150 lineups, a similar approach to Al_Smizzle who we’ll talk about next. jamesgames44 did not do much stack manipulation like TommyG1979 so this means we have yet another DFS bettor archetype, the football guru optimizer guys. These players don’t get overly obsessed with stacks and rely on their superior football knowledge to pick the best players each week.
Now Tracking: Al_Smizzle
One of our readers asked us to track Al_Smizzle and he sure was timely because Al_Smizzle took 6th in last weeks $1MM Maker with 207.92. If you don’t know “Al_Smizzle” check out his profile on Rotogrinders and read his own recap on his prior $1MM in 2016. He also was featured in this article questioning what it means to be a “sponsored DraftKings Player”.
He entered 150 lineups winning a cool $14,650.
His most used players last week were
|22||Todd Gurley II|
Already I see he’s ready to take calculated risks like T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle. Also, Al_Smizzle treats DFS like a job, waiting until the 12PM EST inactives report to come before finalizing his lineups. He correctly identified Trey Burton’s enormous upside with Zach Ertz out in spite of an Ian Rapoport “expected to play” designation.
He’s also not afraid of RB-WR stacks, taking Mark Ingram-T.Y. Hilton in 18% of his lineups.
|24||Lamar Miller, T.Y. Hilton|
|21||Michael Thomas, T.Y. Hilton|
|21||Dez Bryant, Mark Ingram|
|21||Drew Brees, Michael Thomas|
|18||Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton|
|18||Dez Bryant, Lamar Miller|
|18||Dez Bryant, Michael Thomas|
|18||Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas|
|18||Mark Ingram, T.Y. Hilton|
|17||Jack Doyle, Michael Thomas|
|16||Javorius Allen, Michael Thomas|
|16||Dez Bryant, Jack Doyle|
|16||Cameron Brate, Drew Brees|
|16||Cameron Brate, Michael Thomas|
|14||Michael Thomas, Rams|
Typically, RB-WR is a negatively correlated pair and it didn’t do great last week. Alvin Kamara did much better than Ingram and Michael Thomas continued running cold.
Besides that RB-WR stack note, I couldn’t gleam much else from Al_Smizzle’s 2 pairs. The percentages look more circumstantial than deliberate. This suggests Al_Smizzle has faith in his optimizer or heavily engineers his player pool. Sure enough, Al_Smizzle used the leaset number of players across any of his 150 lineups than we’ve seen so far. Only 48 players! CONDIA will play 110 or more. Glad we checked 😛
We’ll keep tracking Al_Smizzle as we prepare for our DFS Shark Strategy Series, where we will use our analysis from the season to construct informative statements about the professional sharks and their DFS strategies.
CONDIA Took a Vacation from the $1MM Maker
Saahil Sud Was Another No Show
Bales Entered 18 Lineups
He lost $235 with a top score of 177.32 points despite some good picks in his player pool.
|27||Todd Gurley II|
If only he max entered, Bales might have generated a gem lineup with these. (Woot-woot I did better this week with my 20 lineups)
CSURAM88 Entered 8 Lineups
Lost $35 on a Ezekiel Elliott heavy player pool.
|37||Todd Gurley II|
TommyG1979 Only Entered 20 Lineups
TommyG1979 lost $85 on 20 lineups. True to form, he used a bunch of stacks.
|44||Todd Gurley II|
|24||Ted Ginn Jr.|
Chris Thompson really hurt and so did Julio Jones big drop.
Julio Jones 4th down TD drop. YIKES pic.twitter.com/r9ic30kknM
— Jared Tokarz (@NFLDraftInsider) November 5, 2017
You wouldn’t expect that player pool to do so bad but take a look at these 9% 7 player groupings.
|9||Alvin Kamara, Cameron Brate, DeSean Jackson, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Seahawks , Ted Ginn Jr.|
|9||Alvin Kamara, Cameron Brate, DeSean Jackson, Drew Brees, Eddie Lacy, Michael Thomas, Seahawks|
|9||Alvin Kamara, DeSean Jackson, Drew Brees, Eddie Lacy, Mike Evans, Seahawks , Ted Ginn Jr.|
Cameron Brate, DeSean Jackson, and Mike Evans all did terrible. Not to mention Alvin Kamara was the only player in these groups to really go off.
Better luck next week TommyG.
ChipotleAddict Lost Big
ChipotleAddict took some big risks but missed the mark, losing $2,880 on 150 lineups. He drew heavily on Chris Ivory and Trey Burton as the inactive report came in. We’ll keep note of this and see if he always plays the replacement starter for surprise inactives or if there was more at play here.
Heavy Stacks by ChipotleAddict
Take a look at these two player stacks
|42||Carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory|
|38||Carlos Hyde, Tyreek Hill|
|38||Carlos Hyde, Mike Evans|
|35||Chris Ivory, Mike Evans|
|32||Chris Ivory, Tyreek Hill|
|24||Carlos Hyde, Trey Burton|
|22||Trey Burton, Tyreek Hill|
|22||Carlos Hyde, Demaryius Thomas|
|22||Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill|
|20||Mike Evans, Trey Burton|
|20||Carlos Hyde, Texans|
|20||Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill|
|19||Dez Bryant, Tyreek Hill|
|18||Chris Ivory, Trey Burton|
|18||Demaryius Thomas, Trey Burton|
Carlos Hyde and Chris Ivory formed the base of all his lineups. He really liked Tyreek Hill too but it didn’t pay off in Week 9.
|25||Carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory, Mike Evans|
|18||Carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory, Tyreek Hill|
|14||Carlos Hyde, Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill|
|14||Carlos Hyde, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill|
|13||Carlos Hyde, Trey Burton, Tyreek Hill|
|12||Carlos Hyde, Mike Evans, Trey Burton|
|12||Chris Ivory, Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill|
|12||Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, Tyreek Hill|
|12||Chris Ivory, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill|
|11||Carlos Hyde, Chris Ivory, Texans|
|11||Carlos Hyde, Texans , Tyreek Hill|
|11||Carlos Hyde, Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant|
|11||Carlos Hyde, Dez Bryant, Tyreek Hill|
|11||Chris Ivory, Dez Bryant, Tyreek Hill|
|11||Dak Prescott, Jason Witten, Tyreek Hill|
Although ChipotleAddict lost big, he will also win big once his 25% 3 player stacks go off.
Rotogrinders Top 50 Meta
New section where we look on how the top 50 ranked DFS players on Rotogrinders did. On aggregate, the top players lost $15,680 on 4,299 entries.
The top pro lineup was 5th place 208.26 points, scored by spx333. Al_Smizzle followed with 6th.
Todd Gurley was the top RB and Michael Thomas the top WR. As a group, 5 of the top 6 most used players were “misses”.
|38||Todd Gurley II|
The most common pro stacks were
- Drew Brees-Michael Thomas 16%
- Dak Prescott-Dez Bryant 10%
- Dez Bryant-Ezekiel Elliott 9%
I think it’s pretty clear how most of the pro’s missed the mark in week 9. Drew Brees was the top QB and pro’s faded T.Y. Hilton compared to Dez Bryant.
The Herd Meta
The herd saw T.Y. Hilton as a great value pick at $4,900 salary and played him a commiserate amount.
|35||Todd Gurley II|
The biggest herd stacks were:
- Drew Brees-Michael Thomas 12%
- Dak Prescott-Dez Bryant 9%
- Dez Bryant-Ezekiel Elliott 5%
Jack Doyle, T.Y. Hilton, and Adrian Peterson were the biggest difference makers between the herd and the sharks. This week, the herd won.
Best Lineup Last Week: 244.34 Points
The best lineup in week 9’s Sunday slate was 244.34 points and used a salary of only $45,700.
|New Orleans Saints||DST||18.00||3400.0||NO|
There were at least 17,402 lineups better than jamesgames44’s 244.34 points. The player pool for these better lineups is below
|6||New Orleans Saints||0.548|
|18||Los Angeles Rams||0.180|
Trey Burton makes the list with Ertz out but it was Corey Clement who benefited the most. Clement proved to be the ultimate sleeper pick with only 24 lineups out of 176,470 playing him!
- Yours truly had his best week yet, placing 14th/11K with a 194 point lineup in a $1 entry contest.
- Last weeks poll is done. 55% of viewers want us to focus more on our How Sharks Approach DFS Series. Next up we’ll refine the QB article and start the WR analysis article.
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