DraftKings Week 8 Recap
The two biggest themes this week were rain and inter-game stacks, cough cough HOU@SEA. Let’s begin starting from last weeks winner, Cubsfan333.
October ended on a high note for this Cubs fan. I’m sure he doesn’t mind the Cubs losing the Pennant know that he has won a cool $1,152,775 in Week 8’s Millionaire Maker on DraftKings.
Not only did Cubsfan333 take first but he also placed second!
All in all, Cubsfan333 entered 67 lineups paying $1,340 in entry fees. His lineups exuded a beautiful property, a lot of “OK” lineups<150 points and then quite a few over 175!
If he only entered one lineup I doubt he would of won top prize. Big GPP’s are a pay to play environment.
Cubsfan333 Lineup Strategy
Looking at Cubsfan333’s top 2 lineups, you’ll see he had quite the afternoon. In his winning lineup, 7 of his players came from the Texans@Seahawks game. And he swapped Russell Wilson with Deshaun Watson who both had similar days.
Here’s his top players by utilization
I’ve highlighted the players who who were used in his top 2 lineups. Even though he had a few big misses, Joe Mixon and Jordan Reed, he had the nerve to create two lineups that were big on the Texans and Seahawks.
Matchup Heavy Lineup Construction
Because he had 7 players from one game, I wanted to check and see if that pattern held for any other lineups he created. Sure enough, he also went heavy on the Raiders@Bills matchup but the Seahawks game was his big winner.
Cubsfan333 Didn’t Care About the Rain
The big story leading up to Week 8 was the storm on the east coast. In spite of the forecast for the Eagles and Redskins games, he still selected players from those matchups. Non-rain players were used way more but not selected exclusively.
So either he isn’t a big believer in rain or didn’t check the forecast.
My Thoughts on Rain
I’m a big believer in rain changing games but I still need to did into the data more. I think Dak Prescott’s performance was certainly hurt by the rain last week and Elliott helped by it. However, to say rain completely hurts passing is too simplistic. I think it makes long passes tougher but also increases the likelihood of an explosive play (fumble, slippery missed tackle, falling etc). I’d bet volatility of fantasy points increases in the rain but the expected point totals decrease for QB-WR-TE. Will get back to you on what the data says once we add weather data to Sports Data Direct.
Cubsfan333’s Stacks/Player Pairings
His biggest stacks that we’re probably deliberate are highlighted below.
|21||DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans|
|19||Joe Mixon, Mike Evans|
|19||Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans|
|19||Christian McCaffrey, DeSean Jackson|
|18||DeSean Jackson, Kelvin Benjamin|
|16||A.J. Green, Jimmy Graham|
|16||Joe Mixon, Jordan Reed|
|16||Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin|
|16||Christian McCaffrey, Kelvin Benjamin|
|16||Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans|
|16||DeSean Jackson, Joe Mixon|
|15||Bengals , Joe Mixon|
|13||Jimmy Graham, Joe Mixon|
|13||Jimmy Graham, LeSean McCoy|
|13||Joe Mixon, LeSean McCoy|
Again, you don’t see much of his winning lineup here. And Cubsfan333 only played 3 lineups with Will Fuller V (one of the best players last week). Makes you wonder if that decision was manual or a stroke of luck from his optimizer that used 90 players across 67 lineups.
CONDIA’s Week 8 Lineups
Soft week for CONDIA. He entered 150 lineups and lost $1,520, coming close with a lineup of 202.06.
Mostly Standard CONDIA Strategy
Consistent players up top. Only deviation I see is that he liked Ted Ginn Jr. at 22% utilization
|22||Ted Ginn Jr.|
Doug Baldwin over Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson hurt big this week but as CONDIA is well-aware. Sometimes she goes and sometimes she don’t.
The Eagles D was a good choice.
CONDIA Might Believe In Rain (but not that much)
I think CONDIA looked at the weather but that didn’t stop him from jumping on Jordan Reed over Jimmy Graham. Still, the next rain affected WR/TE taken was Rob Gronkowski at 12% followed by Chris Hogan at 9%. Biggest takeaway here is that CONDIA may think that WR is the most volatile skill position in rain. Eagles D probably bolstered by rain against the 49ers.
He still was OK selecting QB’s Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Tom Brady but markedly less than other weeks. His favorite QB, Drew Brees, made another appearance at 9% utilization (for more on QB analysis check out our How Sharks Approach Quarterbacks Article)
His biggest QB stacks was like normal around 6-7% but he played many smaller stacks than normal suggesting that there was no clear cut pairing this week (sadly he didn’t really expect the Texans and Seahawks game to play out as it did).
- Andy Dalton – A.J. Green 6%
All in all, a standard CONDIA week. Just didn’t work out as well as it did last week.
Tommy G’s Week 8 Lineups
Tommy G entered 107 lineups losing $920.
Like CONDIA, Tommy G liked Doug Baldwin this week.
Unlike CONDIA, Tommy G goes all out when he likes something, using Baldwin in 71% of his lineups. Zach Miller hurt here, but not as much as Miller was feeling when he nearly lost his leg last week.
|68||Doug Baldwin, Russell Wilson|
|44||Doug Baldwin, Jordan Howard|
|44||Jordan Howard, Russell Wilson|
|33||Doug Baldwin, Joe Mixon|
|33||Joe Mixon, Russell Wilson|
|31||Doug Baldwin, Mark Ingram|
|31||Mark Ingram, Russell Wilson|
|29||Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller|
|29||Russell Wilson, Zach Miller|
|29||Chris Thompson, Doug Baldwin|
|28||Joe Mixon, Zach Miller|
|26||Doug Baldwin, Ezekiel Elliott|
|26||Ezekiel Elliott, Russell Wilson|
|26||Chris Thompson, Russell Wilson|
|26||Devonta Freeman, Doug Baldwin|
As you’d guess, Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin was his biggest stack checking in at 68%. Unfortunately, Baldwin wasn’t the play this week as we mentioned during our analysis of Cubsfan333.
Tommy G definitely, didn’t expect the Texans to do well this week. He didn’t play DeShaun Watson or Will Fuller V. DeAndre Hopkins was used only in 4% of lineups while the Seahawks D was used in 5% of lineups.
Rest of Pro’s
Bales lost another $300 in the $1MM maker
Bales had a big win over at FanDuel a few weeks ago but this week was another poor showing for him on DraftKings.
He went heavy on Mixon and stayed away from much of non-RB’s in rain affected games
CSURAM88 won $1,355
Glad to see this guy showing up in the black again. He had quite the range of lineup scores.
CSURAM88 had faith in Zach Ertz and the Saints offense.
|21||Will Fuller V|
Wendell Smallwood was a non-factor but his gutsy pick of Ertz in the rain worked. A new thing I learned about CSURAM88 this week is that he is OK playing 2 RB’s from the same team. He used Alvin Kamara-Mark Ingram in 9% of his lineups. Ended up working out fine as they both got TD’s.
Here’s CSURAM88’s biggest stacks/player pairings
|18||Alvin Kamara, Amari Cooper|
|17||Jimmy Graham, Mark Ingram|
|16||Amari Cooper, Jimmy Graham|
|15||Alvin Kamara, Jimmy Graham|
|15||Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon|
|15||Jimmy Graham, Russell Wilson|
|15||Doug Baldwin, Russell Wilson|
|15||Jimmy Graham, Will Fuller V|
|13||Jimmy Graham, Joe Mixon|
|13||Amari Cooper, Joe Mixon|
|13||Joe Mixon, Keenan Allen|
|13||Jimmy Graham, Jordan Howard|
|13||Paul Richardson, Russell Wilson|
|13||Jets , Mark Ingram|
|12||Jimmy Graham, Keenan Allen|
Trying 3 Russell Wilson stacks helped him out big! I bet he’s thrilled he chanced on Richardson that much while other pro’s like CONDIA and TommyG didn’t.
Now Tracking: ChipotleAddict
User “djrocstar” recommended we start looking at a few more players. We hope to continue adding more players but for now we’ve selected ChipotleAddict (if anyone knows him, let me know what he thinks about the queso. I just sold my CMG stock because of how shitty I thought it was).
Anywho, in Week 8 he entered 150 lineups and won $270.
Random note: It’s impressive how many pro’s broke the 200 point cliff this week. Here’s ChipotleAddict’s most used players
Surprisingly, I looked at ChipotleAddict’s top 40 most used pairs and couldn’t find a QB stack anywhere. He had Russell Wilson-DeAndre Hopkins at 21%. His most used stack was Drew Brees-Michael Thomas ~12%.
Perhaps ChipotleAddict prefers the less discussed intra-matchup stack than a QB-WR. He could employ a complicated over-under hedge strategy and/or have an edge predicting big fantasy games.
We’ll keep an eye on ChipotleAddict and continue refining our thoughts on his analysis throughout the season.
SaahilSud Has Another Poor Showing
Saahil Sud entered 150 lineups and lost $2,620. Before questioning his prowess, like I did with Bales last week, I took a week at Saahil Sud’s biggest wins. This guy hasn’t truly been a top dog since the 2015 NFL season.
Saahil Sud’s most used players are below. Notice the potentially deliberate 5% difference between usages. He probably manually set those percentages.
He went heavy on Jordan Reed, betting that he would return to form in spite of the rain. He also took Amari Cooper over Michael Crabtree.
Saahil Sud is also OK with RB-WR stacks, playing Joe Mixon-A.J. Green in 11% of his lineups. Here’s his top player pairings
|45||A.J. Green, Jordan Reed|
|36||Joe Mixon, Jordan Reed|
|36||A.J. Green, Jason Witten|
|35||Joe Mixon, LeGarrette Blount|
|33||A.J. Green, LeSean McCoy|
|26||Jordan Reed, Seahawks|
|25||Jordan Reed, LeGarrette Blount|
|25||Jordan Reed, LeSean McCoy|
|25||Jordan Reed, Russell Wilson|
|25||A.J. Green, Russell Wilson|
|25||Joe Mixon, Mike Evans|
|24||Jason Witten, Jordan Reed|
|24||LeGarrette Blount, Mike Evans|
|23||Doug Baldwin, Jordan Reed|
|23||Jordan Reed, Mike Evans|
The Pro Meta
This is a new section where we’ll look at the lineups used by all the pro’s we’re tracking (usernames: CONDIA, SaahilSud, Bales, CSURAM88, Tommyg1979, ChipotleAddict).
In Week 8, none of these pro’s did great. On aggregate they lost $4,005 on 579 entries.
The pro’s used these players the most
Doug Baldwin was a rough pick and Joe Mixon didn’t live up to the hype in Week 8. As you can imagine, Wilson-Baldwin was the most used stack. A.J. Green was the most used “consistent/top WR” this week.
|21||Doug Baldwin, Russell Wilson|
|14||A.J. Green, Jordan Reed|
|12||Jordan Howard, Russell Wilson|
|12||Doug Baldwin, Joe Mixon|
|11||Doug Baldwin, Jordan Howard|
|11||A.J. Green, LeSean McCoy|
|11||Joe Mixon, Jordan Reed|
|10||Amari Cooper, Joe Mixon|
|10||Joe Mixon, LeGarrette Blount|
|10||A.J. Green, Jason Witten|
|9||Joe Mixon, Russell Wilson|
|9||A.J. Green, Russell Wilson|
|9||Mark Ingram, Russell Wilson|
|9||Doug Baldwin, Mark Ingram|
|8||Joe Mixon, Keenan Allen|
Pro’s weren’t scared by rain, using Jordan Reed, Jason Witten, and Keenan Allen in typical amounts.
The Herd Meta
While the pro’s didn’t show the rain much respect, the herd did moreso. The herd pick was the Bengals Offense vs the Colts
|18||Ted Ginn Jr.|
The three most common stacks we’re
- Andy Dalton- A.J. Green 11%
- Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin 8%
- Tyler Kroft-Bengals DST 8%
- Andy Dalton-Tyler Kroft 6%
- Andy Dalton-Joe Mixon 6%
- Cam Newton-Kelvin Benjamin 6%
|13||A.J. Green, Andy Dalton|
|11||A.J. Green, Joe Mixon|
|9||Doug Baldwin, Joe Mixon|
|8||Joe Mixon, LeSean McCoy|
|8||Doug Baldwin, Russell Wilson|
|8||A.J. Green, Tyler Kroft|
|7||A.J. Green, LeSean McCoy|
|7||LeSean McCoy, Tyler Kroft|
|6||Joe Mixon, Kelvin Benjamin|
|6||Joe Mixon, Tyler Kroft|
|6||Bengals , Joe Mixon|
|6||A.J. Green, Chris Thompson|
|6||Andy Dalton, Tyler Kroft|
|6||Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon|
|6||Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin|
Best Lineup Possible: 275.98
We had a glitch with our lineup optimizer using teams not in the $1MM slate this week and will update this section when it’s done running (even after pruning players based on salary/points scored there’s 10,000,000 lineups to check!). For now take a look at DFSGold although I’ve found them to be off by ~3 points on the best possible lineup for some weeks.
Updated: The best lineup was 275.98 points and used a salary of 50,000.
The player pool of the lineups that would have beat Cubsfan333 is shown below
|35||San Francisco 49ers||0.039|
DeAndre Washington jumps out at me as a sneaky good pick. 8 receptions with Marshawn out is huge on DraftKings.
- Millionaire Maker tourney size reduced yet again
- Last week DraftKings only made $421,140 because they were 10K missing lineups in the guaranteed prize pool.
- The total prize pool will now be $3MM (down from $3.6MM).
- Was the Texans performance great or a solid indicator of the decline of the Legion of Boom?
- Time will tell and we’ll track their usage by pro’s next week
- Personally, I don’t think the Seahawks have an elite defense anymore.
- Pro Meta Next Week will cover top 50 players listed on rotogrinders!
- Are you a new reader?
- DFSGold Best Lineup not optimal
- The true best lineup for the main slate on DraftKings was 275.98, not 266.78!
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