DraftKings Week 7 Recap
Every week we look at Millionaire Maker’s on DraftKings to analyze the winner, the professional sharks, and what the best lineup would be. We were late on Week 6’s but you can view our past recaps here.
We also analyze how sharks like CONDIA and Jonathan Bales approach lineup construction week in and out — read How Sharks Approach Daily Fantasy Sports.
Random Note: Damn Amari Cooper
I’m so pissed. Amari Cooper played on Thursday and I only do Sunday slates. Cooper was begging for a breakout game and there it was. I know I’m only saying this after the fact but damn. His salary was so low and everyone seemed to forget just how much upside he can have. Now in Week 8, I have to decide should I fade him against the Bills or not.
Anyways let’s get this recap going.
ROB2622 Wins with 229.66 Points
He only entered one lineup and it was money. I checked all the other Millionaire Maker’s and this looks like his first time playing for $1MM. He used a little played Wilson-Baldwin stack that helped separate him from 2nd place by a whopping 15 points. Congrats.
Best Possible Lineup: 260.56 Points
There were at least 4201 better lineups than ROB2622. The best one was
|1||Ted Ginn Jr.||WR||24.10||4100.0||NO||0|
Not many expected the breakout game for O.J. Howard (.07%) or the Bears D (6%) to dominate but they did.
The player pool of these winning lineups is shown below
|1||Ted Ginn Jr.||0.566|
The clear cut players that did superb are the Chicago Bears DST, Ezekiel Elliott, and O.J. Howard.
With Leonard Fournette out, the herd decided Chris Ivory was their man.
Unfortunately for them, T. J. Yeldon ended up being the better play. And Emmanuel Sanders was out too. So people slated Thomas for a big game and he got a dreadful 2.9 points.
If you really wanted to run with the sheep, you could have played Chris Ivory-Demaryius Thomas. The second highest used pairing this week.
|11||Chris Ivory, LeSean McCoy|
|11||Chris Ivory, Demaryius Thomas|
|9||Chris Ivory, Pierre Garcon|
|8||Chris Ivory, Dez Bryant|
|8||Antonio Brown, Chris Ivory|
|8||Demaryius Thomas, LeSean McCoy|
|7||Chris Ivory, Ezekiel Elliott|
|7||LeSean McCoy, Pierre Garcon|
|7||Chris Ivory, Michael Thomas|
|6||Chris Ivory, Le’Veon Bell|
|6||LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor|
Ouch. Not a good day for the herd. I’m going to keep an eye on this trend of picking other players when a starter gets injured and see if it’s a good general rule of the herd in the current DraftKings DFS “meta”.
CONDIA: Top 5 Finish
Like last week CONDIA entered less lineups. Last week 80, this week 76 in the $1MM Maker.
Injuries were the theme this week. Like the herd, CONDIA picked Chris Ivory to be in 28% of his lineups and Demaryius in 27%.
So even pro’s aren’t immune to the powers of the herd. Notably, he broke his ~27% max player exposure guideline, going with 44% on Le’Veon Bell, a consistent RB.
But with Willie Snead out he did something different for the dilemma: Ted Ginn Jr. or Michael Thomas? CONDIA went and used both in his player pool.
|12||Ted Ginn Jr.|
CONDIA placed 5th this week with his Ted Ginn Jr. lineup!
Notably, his biggest player pairing used Ezekiel Elliott-Le’Veon Bell at 14%.
|14||Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell|
|14||Demaryius Thomas, Le’Veon Bell|
|14||Chris Ivory, Demaryius Thomas|
|14||Demaryius Thomas, LeSean McCoy|
|14||Demaryius Thomas, Kyle Rudolph|
|14||Allen Hurns, Le’Veon Bell|
|12||LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram|
|12||Antonio Brown, LeSean McCoy|
|12||Kyle Rudolph, Le’Veon Bell|
|12||Kyle Rudolph, Mark Ingram|
|12||Kyle Rudolph, LeSean McCoy|
I think CONDIA would agree that RB and TE are the most predictable positions. Like normal his QB stack was ~6-7% with Drew Brees-Michael Thomas coming in at 6%.
DraftKings Changing the $1MM Maker
Another bad week for DraftKings. This time they only made $393,790 in fees. For week 8, they’ve reduced the contest size to fewer entrants but are keeping the $1MM prize.
Other Pro’s: The Lineup Optimizer Founders Are Struggling.. at least on DraftKings
Bales continues to do poorly in the $1MM maker, entering 27 lineups and losing $420.
Is his heart still in it? Is he making money in other contests? I’m at a loss. UPDATE: Bales recently won 197K on Fan Duel on 10/15/2017. Smaller contest with 1481 entrants and $333 entry fee but huge win nevertheless, I retract my prior statement. Bales is still a boss. (Thanks Reddit user CeroMiedoFTW for the tip!)
In another bad day for professionals with lineup optimizer sites, Saahil Sud didn’t enter any lineups in the $1MM maker.
Overall, CONDIA is lord, at least on DraftKings. Anyone else you think worth tracking here?
UPDATE 10/26: Now Tracking Tommy G
One of our readers asked us to start looking into Tommy G so here it is! BTW: I found this article about him to help give you some background.
From just looking at Week 7, Tommy G is an exciting player to watch. First off, I found out this guy is on Saahil Sud’s level of risk taking. He went heavy on Chris Ivory and had some bad busts with Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, and Ivory.
Conventional wisdom says you take Ivory but like we already talked about, Yeldon stole the show. He also played the Chicago Bears DST in 15% of his lineups. As for his stacks/common pairs see below
|68||Chris Ivory, Le’Veon Bell|
|38||Chris Ivory, LeSean McCoy|
|35||Chris Ivory, Larry Fitzgerald|
|34||Larry Fitzgerald, Le’Veon Bell|
|33||Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy|
|33||Cam Newton, Chris Ivory|
|32||Cam Newton, Le’Veon Bell|
|18||Cam Newton, LeSean McCoy|
|18||Chris Ivory, Demaryius Thomas|
|18||Demaryius Thomas, Le’Veon Bell|
|17||Carson Palmer, Chris Ivory|
|17||Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald|
|16||Chris Ivory, Evan Engram|
|16||Cam Newton, Larry Fitzgerald|
|16||Carson Palmer, Le’Veon Bell|
Tommy G entered 150 lineups losing $1235. He had 128 players in his player pool so he definitely uses a lineup optimizer. Here’s his overall lineup performance
Quick Takeaways about Tommy G:
- Doesn’t pair QB against D
- Bears D 15% used and not with Cam Newton 34%
- Knowingly stacks
- Carson Palmer – Chris Ivory – Larry Fitzgerald – Le’Veon Bell 16% and equal to amount of exposure of smaller pairs Palmer-Fitzgerald, Palmer-Ivory etc…
- Cam Newton stack show below. Same exposure as Palmer stack.
|16||Cam Newton, Chris Ivory, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy|
|16||Cam Newton, Chris Ivory, Larry Fitzgerald, Le’Veon Bell|
|16||Carson Palmer, Chris Ivory, Larry Fitzgerald, Le’Veon Bell|
- Tommy G takes big risks. Will be exciting to track his heavily engineered lineups week in and out.
- Thanks Kristopher for the tip to start watching Tommy G!
Call For Input
What other professional players should I track? CONDIA is the most consistent top dawg right now.