DraftKings Week 6 Recap

Every week we look at Millionaire Maker’s on DraftKings to analyze the winner, the professional sharks, and what the best lineup would be. To view our past recaps click here.

We also analyze how sharks like CONDIA and Jonathan Bales approach lineup construction week in and out — read How Sharks Approach Daily Fantasy Sports.

Chrisdmead Wins with 231.48 Points

Chrisdmead's Winning Lineup

Chrisdmead entered 8 lineups but took home the top prize.

Points
count 8.000000
mean 145.379999
std 46.235102
min 81.920000
25% 116.369997
50% 151.250000
75% 162.105000
max 231.480000

What’s surprising is that he didn’t have any locks. His most used players are below

Percentage Player
62 Mark Ingram
37 Jerick McKinnon
37 Cameron Brate
37 Marvin Jones Jr.
37 Jaguars
37 Falcons
37 Antonio Brown
24 Kareem Hunt
24 Lamar Miller
24 Julio Jones
24 Chris Hogan

Mark Ingram was grossly undervalued at $4,100 salary and wisely that was his top pick. Besides that, he used 5 defenses across 8 lineups!

player_name opp_name dk_salary dk_points points/salary Percentage
0 Jaguars LAR 3600.0 5.0 1.388889 37
1 Falcons MIA 3500.0 3.0 0.857143 37
2 Ravens CHI 3700.0 20.0 5.405405 12
3 Cardinals TB 2800.0 5.0 1.785714 12

I always find it surprising how many defenses are used across lineups. In Chrisdmead’s case he never played a skill player against his starting DST (allowing him to use the Cardinals and Cameron Brate in his player pool this week.If you’re new to DFS that is a great rule of thumb, never play against your own defense in the big prize contests.

And that is what the pro’s follow too. Even the most aggressive players like Saahil Sud will play 3-7 defenses each week.

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The Best Lineup Possible: 267.7 Points

There we’re at least 10,593 better lineups than Chrisdmead in Week 6. The best lineup was

player_name position score salary team_name
6 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 22.6 4400.0 TB
2 Le’Veon Bell RB 31.1 9600.0 PIT
4 Adrian Peterson RB 28.4 3400.0 ARI
0 Marvin Jones WR 21.6 4600.0 DET
1 Antonio Brown WR 32.5 9300.0 PIT
3 De’Anthony Thomas WR 15.1 3000.0 KC
7 Dion Sims TE 12.2 2500.0 CHI
8 Melvin Gordon FLEX 36.0 7800.0 LAC
5 New Orleans Saints DST 32.0 2700.0 NO

And the player pool of the better lineups is shown below.

Name Percentage
7 Melvin Gordon 0.964
5 Mark Ingram 0.758
3 New Orleans Saints 0.642
6 Larry Fitzgerald 0.537
2 Adrian Peterson 0.533
1 Antonio Brown 0.472
14 Jerick McKinnon 0.417
4 Kirk Cousins 0.388
10 Demaryius Thomas 0.373
0 Marvin Jones 0.349
13 Josh McCown 0.282
16 Ted Ginn Jr. 0.263
19 Golden Tate 0.260
17 Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.246
20 De’Anthony Thomas 0.239
11 Rob Gronkowski 0.237
8 Cameron Brate 0.235
9 Evan Engram 0.228
21 Aldrick Robinson 0.224
23 New York Giants 0.215
18 Eric Decker 0.214
25 Le’Veon Bell 0.186
12 Jack Doyle 0.179
22 Michael Crabtree 0.179
15 Dion Sims 0.122
26 Detroit Lions 0.104
24 C.J. Beathard 0.079
27 Travaris Cadet 0.022
28 Cleveland Browns 0.020
30 Jay Prosch 0.010
31 San Francisco 49ers 0.009
32 Miami Dolphins 0.009
29 Brock Osweiler 0.004

If you had Melvin Gordon and Mark Ingram in Week 6 you we’re doing pretty well.

The Herd Picks

DraftKings had their worst week in a while, winning $740,230 instead of their usual $1MM in fees.

The most common players were:

Percentage Player
30 Kareem Hunt
23 Jerick McKinnon
23 Deshaun Watson
22 DeAndre Hopkins
20 Mark Ingram
20 Leonard Fournette
20 Alvin Kamara
19 Adam Thielen
19 Todd Gurley II
18 Will Fuller V
17 Falcons

Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins was by far the most common stack, followed by Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller V. Below, I’ve listed the most common pairs of players

Percentage Player
11 DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson
9 Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V
7 Deshaun Watson, Kareem Hunt
7 DeAndre Hopkins, Jerick McKinnon
6 Deshaun Watson, Jerick McKinnon
6 Jerick McKinnon, Kareem Hunt
6 Adam Thielen, Kareem Hunt
6 Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette
6 Kareem Hunt, Will Fuller V
5 Jerick McKinnon, Mark Ingram
5 Kareem Hunt, Mark Ingram

Unfortunately for the herd, Kirk Cousins was a much better QB play and too many people jumped on the Watson bandwagon.

Checking In with CONDIA

CONDIA played Deshaun Watson about as much as the herd did with 17% utilization. But, he wisely played Mark Ingram in 30% of his lineups and had the Ravens DST in 25%.

Percentage Player
30 Mark Ingram
30 Julio Jones
28 Kareem Hunt
26 Todd Gurley II
25 Ravens
24 Alvin Kamara
22 Jaguars
20 Leonard Fournette
19 Lamar Miller
18 Drew Brees
17 Jerick McKinnon
17 Deshaun Watson

Notice how many players CONDIA had from the Saints. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram. I believe in never playing a RB and QB together but CONDIA does. He played Brees-Kamara in 5% and Brees-Ingram in 7%. Still, we agree that playing two RB’s from the same team is generally a bad idea. CONDIA played Ingram-Kamara in 0% of his lineups.

CONDIA’s biggest stack was Drew Brees-Mark Ingram at 7% (which is the same max same team stack exposure he’s used all season). His most common player pairings are below

Percentage Player
14 Julio Jones, Mark Ingram
11 Mark Ingram, Ravens
11 Ravens , Todd Gurley II
11 Julio Jones, Kareem Hunt
11 Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones
11 Julio Jones, Todd Gurley II
10 Alvin Kamara, Jaguars
9 Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones
9 Jaguars , Kareem Hunt
9 Mark Ingram, Todd Gurley II
9 Julio Jones, Lamar Miller
8 Julio Jones, Ravens
8 Julio Jones, Kyle Rudolph
8 Jaguars , Julio Jones
7 Kareem Hunt, Ravens
7 Kareem Hunt, Kyle Rudolph
7 Kareem Hunt, Mark Ingram
7 Drew Brees, Mark Ingram
7 Drew Brees, Lamar Miller
7 Jerick McKinnon, Julio Jones

The Other Pro’s

SaahilSud only entered 6 lineups.. He must have been pissed after his Week 5 locks didn’t pan out. He placed Kevin Hogan, Adam Thielen, and Le’Veon Bell in 100% of his lineups and lost $40.

Bales entered 20 lineups, hoping some fringe players like John Brown would pan out, and lost $140.

Percentage Player
19 Jerick McKinnon, John Brown
19 Adam Thielen, Davante Adams
19 Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram
14 John Brown, Lamar Miller
14 Cameron Brate, John Brown
14 John Brown, Julio Jones
14 Cameron Brate, Julio Jones
14 Carson Palmer, John Brown
14 Adam Thielen, Jerick McKinnon
14 Jerick McKinnon, Mark Ingram

Short story short, CONDIA is top dog on DraftKings. He plays the most and already won the $100,000+ this season.

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

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