DraftKings Week 5 Recap
One thing we keep seeing is that the $1MM winners typically play more than 1 lineup at a time, with Week 2 being the only exception. Lineup optimizer’s that help you generate the most efficient lineups are the way to go. If you’re code savy here’s our free python lineup optimizer. It’s made to work with Sports Data Direct data but you can easily plug in your own salary and projections info.
Anyways, let’s look at what happened last Sunday night.
GrindersCal Wins Big
GrindersCal won $1MM with a little used Brian Hoyer-George Kittle stack.
That stack was only used in 2 of his 30 lineups! Is this guy a 49er’s fan because that was a great pick.
In hindsight, 49er’s-Colts was a great game for the Niner’s offense to break out under new coach and offensive guru Kyle Shanahan. The 49er’s previous 4 games were against good defenses that can stop TE’s (CAR, @SEA, LAR, @ARZ).
Below is a summary of all of his lineups.
Wisely, he took bigger risks than pro’s like CONDIA who can afford to set their max player exposure to ~25% because they play 150 lineups each week. GrindersCal. Here’s his player utilization that drew heavily on the Packer Offense.
On quick glance, 53% and 47% add to 100% so you might think he played either Aaron Rodgers or Aaron Jones but not both. It turns out he played them together in 10% of his lineups which is surprising because Jones is not a pass catching RB (in two games he has 1 catch for 9 yards) and QB-RB’s typically exhibit negative correlation.
Normally I don’t show triple stacks but in GrindersCal’s it is relevant.
|20||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb|
|20||Aaron Rodgers, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb|
That Rodgers-Cobb-Bryant stack is a big bet on the Packers Cowboys game being high scoring and if you realize it ahead of time you can actually hedge this (scroll down to learn more about hedging DFS plays).
Here’s GrindersCal’s biggest double stacks.
|37||Aaron Rodgers, Dez Bryant|
|30||Aaron Jones, Austin Seferian-Jenkins|
|30||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Dez Bryant|
|30||Aaron Rodgers, Martellus Bennett|
|30||Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb|
|27||Aaron Jones, Antonio Brown|
|27||Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb|
|23||Aaron Jones, Dez Bryant|
|23||DeVante Parker, Dez Bryant|
|23||Aaron Jones, DeVante Parker|
|23||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Randall Cobb|
|20||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Melvin Gordon|
|20||Dez Bryant, Melvin Gordon|
|20||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Torrey Smith|
|20||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, DeVante Parker|
How He Probably Did It
As far as how this guy made his lineups, I’m guessing he used a lineup optimizer because he had 7 different defenses and 66 players in his player pool but didn’t use any of the constraints like force this QB-WR pair. Or if he did, he generated half of his lineups with a Packers heavy offense and the other half differently.
His best play was Brian Hoyer-George Kittle. He must have removed lineups generated based on some metric like predicted points because, at the low salaries Hoyer and Kittle had, you’d expect them to be far more prevalent across his lineups. Perhaps he just got a lucky draw from the generator and doesn’t even know who George Kittle is.
At Least 70,812 Lineups Better Than GrindersCal
Using our lineup optimizer, we found room for improvement over the actual played lineups in Week 5’s Millionaire Maker. The best possible lineup was 271.34 points.
Honestly, I’m surprised no one played it. None of these players are completely random flukes, Aaron Jones and Ed Dickson stand out, but a reasonable player could have had all these players in their high upside player pool. On the prediction websites I use, both players were projected around 8 points which is pretty good considering their salaries.
The player pool for these winning lineups is below
|29||Green Bay Packers||0.130|
Keep an eye on these lists because you should always chase the best possible score rather than over-analyze what the winning lineup happened to be. Especially this week when the winner is 55 points below the top score!
CONDIA: Another Week as Usual
True to form, CONDIA’s QB-WR stacks topped out around 7% and a player pool over 100.
- Dak Prescott-Dez Bryant 7%
- Aaron Rodgers-Randall Cobb 7%
He didn’t win big but won a handy $2,925 on his 150 lineups ($3,000 entry, unlike how DraftKings presents it, we believe winning is how much money you received after your bet… On DK this would show as winning “$5,925”.)
CONDIA’s point totals show a healthy “positive skew” versus a pure normal position. Basically when some of his player scored well, other players also scored well due to positive correlation.
Sidenote on Stacking
Just because the best possible lineup doesn’t use stacks, stacks are a great way to increase your probability of a winning lineup even though stacks don’t guarantee you the best score. In today’s contests, winning lineups are significantly below the best possible lineups, so stacking and positive correlation should continue to work. Otherwise you’re essentially gambling.
CONDIA’s Player Pool
CONDIA used more exposure on Le’Veon Bell than we’ve seen in past weeks. Typically he caps out at ~25% but this time he felt comfortable using 32% on Bell. Still, this is in-line with him using exposure on consistent plays.
|20||Todd Gurley II|
Interestingly, he has two stacks that have matched exposure within the stack (Rodgers-Nelson and Prescott-Bryant). I did not see this weeks 1-4 but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Still, he didn’t enforce any hard rules like Saahil Sud would do, keeping his stacks to 7% as we showed earlier.
RKennedy23 Does Not Repeat
Hot off his $1MM win last week, RKennedy23 gave Week 5 another go. Thankfully he didn’t double down and played a similar number of lineups. He lost $500 on 27 lineups while using a combo of Ezekiel Elliott and the Ravens defense at 85% utilization each.
We’ll stop tracking this player unless he has another great finish.
Saahil Sud Remains the Ballsy Pro
Saahil Sud is pissed of losing. This week he went all out on Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, placing them in 100% of his 150 lineups!
While this didn’t work in Week 5, you can imagine how big a payout it will be if the blip around 150 points in the chart below moves out 60 points.
It’s about time we saw a lock by a pro but too bad it didn’t pan out. Still, Saahil only needs about 1 win and he will be swimming in money. His player pool had only 44 players compared to CONDIA’s 119. Saahil is truly a fat tony.
He lost on Jordy, Engram, and Elliott all having bad days.
|45||Marvin Jones Jr.|
Better luck next time Saahil. I’m rooting for you.
The Herd’s Picks
Draft Kings won $878,145 last week, down slightly from their usual $1MM.
Here’s how everyone did with their lineups.
135 points was just about the threshold to make money.
Herd Player Pool
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins received a surprising amount of utilization at 28%. And Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb over Davante Adams (which wound up being the wrong play)
|27||Todd Gurley II|
|18||Duke Johnson Jr.|
People also thought Jaron Brown would repeat his great Week 4 performance but he didn’t live up to the hype.
- Aaron Rodgers-Jordy Nelson 8%
- Jacoby Brissett-T.Y. Hilton 6%
- Dak Prescott-Dez Bryant 6%
I’m seeing the Packers passing offense is much preferred to the Cowboys passing offense in spite of the strong performance a Brice Butler or Cole Beasley lineup would be.
Some of the most herd-like lineups involved Sefarian-Jenkins and a normal play like Le’Veon Bell
|12||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Le’Veon Bell|
|11||Le’Veon Bell, T.Y. Hilton|
|11||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Dez Bryant|
|10||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.Y. Hilton|
|10||Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton|
|9||Dez Bryant, Le’Veon Bell|
|8||Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson|
|8||T.Y. Hilton, Todd Gurley II|
|8||Dez Bryant, Todd Gurley II|
|8||Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Todd Gurley II|
So avoid these players given “equivalent” players that are more under the radar. Ed Dickson will probably be played heavily in Week 6, so it’s worth considering playing a Delanie Walker or Kyle Rudolph type TE. Still, if the price is right, sometimes you can’t avoid the “herd pick”.
Sports Betting Strategy: Hedging Your DFS Plays
Last weekend, we saw GrindersCal win big by playing a heavy dose of the Packers and the Dallas Cowboys. One way to reduce your downside risk and keep yourself in the running for the $1MM prize is to hedge your bets.
I won’t go into too much detail but the basic premise is this. Say you are betting on players from two teams facing each other — Dez Bryant, Aaron Rodgers. If you take the under line, betting that the total score of the Packers Cowboys game will be less than 52 on a sports book, you can still win if your DFS plays had a bad day (which would typically happen if the game goes under). If the Over/Under goes over, you’re likelihood of your players getting a lot of points increases significantly.
Another opportunity exists for player prop bets. For example, if you see an Over/Under line on Ezekiel Elliott getting 100 yards, and choose him in a lot of your lineups, you can take the under and benefit from the Draft Kings +3 points for a player getting over 100 yards.
Be Like Saahil If You Don’t Max Your Lineups
The cold hard truth is that it’s very hard to win the Millionaire Maker if you don’t take some chances. CONDIA is able to enter $3K a week and profits from a repetitive strategy but you can’t do that unless you play a ton of lineups. If you can only play 20 lineups, take some chances. Think of events that will change many players fantasy point totals. Will the Packers-Cowboys game be a shootout? Who will get the points and who won’t?
If you try to do a CONDIA without putting down lot’s of money, you could have a rough a time.
Update on Contest Recap Tool
Thanks everyone for voting last week. I will start looking into creating a contest recap tool but it probably won’t be ready until next season.
I’ll keep you updated with what I’m thinking of including as time goes on.
Also, subscribe to our mailing list so you are notified when we publish first. I time posts on reddit and sometimes publish these recaps a few days in advance before posting there.