DraftKings Week 4 Recap
First off, sorry for missing last week. I was dealing with some life problems but am back on track.
Draft Kings already took down Week 3’s Millionaire Maker link, contest 44843225, so if you have the csv of results please send it my way. In other news, I wrote an article on how pro’s like CONDIA approach the defense position to help make up the missed week to you.
Let’s get started.
The Winner RKennedy23
Rkennedy23 entered 32 lineups and won $1,000,160! His best lineup had the Cam Newton-Devin Funchess QB-WR stack which he only used in 1 of 32 lineups.
Here’s his player utilization
His best play was Bilal Powell in my opinion. He entered Powell in 50% of his lineups and got 50% more valuable performance than Le’Veon Bell (salary adjusted).
As for how he created his lineups, RKennedy used 51 players which makes me think he definitely used a lineup optimizer with some type of upside metric or manual tweaking. I used an assortment of 4 sites predictions last week and Tyler Kroft had an upper prediction around ~7.5 points and lower bound at ~1.5. He used Kroft in 9% of lineups. This guy is definitely knows a bit about football and is not a fluke.
As for lineup generating rules RKennedy believes in WR-TE stacks (or at least doesn’t think they don’t work). Kennedy had A.J. Green – Tyler Kroft “stack” in 9% of his lineups. Normally a no-no because they compete for targets. Even still, maybe this week that was a great idea because he had two “safe” picks A.J. Green and Le’Veon Bell and then threw a lot of darts at high upside players. This week that worked great.
You could argue Bilal Powell with Forte out was a safe pick too but I’m honestly shocked how bad the Jacksonville run defense has been. They rank last in the league in yard/game allowed at this point. I thought they’d be good this year but no team in the last 20 years has finished in top 10 after being 32nd after 4 games (source Sports Data Direct).
RKennedy was real high on Carson Palmer and the Cardinals D, as was I, but the risks he took we’re well thought out. Cam vs bad NE Defense. Jordan Matthews could have had a huge day and, like SaahilSud plays, RKennedy used his optimizer to make the statement that the Bills will have a strong day against.
But he also used an RB-WR stack?!? LeSean McCoy-Jordan Matthews at 25%. I’m guessing his lineup optimizer isn’t all that sophisticated or he doesn’t believe certain stacks are bad for big tourneys.
My verdict is RKennedy definitely knows football but could improve his play with smarting stacking/no-stacking rules. As for me, I definitely need to get better at the “knowing football” part. I missed some obvious good plays like chancing on Tyler Kroft and not playing Bilal Powell as the sole starter because my recency bias made me think the Jaguars had a good D after their London stomping against the Ravens.
CONDIA Quiet Week
Like many of us, CONDIA was hot on the Jaguars D using them in 22% of his lineups. True to form, he kept his highest player exposure around 25% using his chances on consistent players like running backs and possession receivers. Honestly, I wonder if CONDIA ever gets bored of DFS. He does the same shit every week but then again he’s made a milly in a 4 week span so I doubt he’s that bored…
|5425||20||Todd Gurley II|
Again, his QB-WR stacks we’re set to ~6% exposure
- Cam Newton-Kelvin Benjamin 7%
- Dak Prescott-Dez Bryant 6%
- Emmanuel Sanders-Trevor Siemian 6%
If anyone wants to pony up $3K a week, CONDIA’s strategy is pretty easy to replicate. I’m still a bit scared to put up all my own money that way. And you need to play all 150 lineups in order to benefit from his strategy because the player pool can be huge. 136 players! Holy crap
Bales Threw Some Darts
I haven’t looked much at Jonathan Bales this year. He’s the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People: The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS so he should have some good lineups.
Surprisingly, he only entered 19 lineups in Week 4’s Millionaire Maker and has been quiet this year. Like SaahilSud, Bales employs a riskier approach using lots of stacks. He has no issue placing a high risk player like Jared Cook or Tyrod Taylor or Marqise Lee in over 25% of his lineups.
|48541||26||Odell Beckham Jr.|
As for stacks he used Tyrod Taylor and Charles Clay in 21% of his lineups, a way more aggressive approach than CONDIA. Perhaps it was related to the small number of lineups he entered but we’ll keep an eye on Bales this season.
Sidenote: Congratulations to Jonathan Bales for Fantasy Labs being acquired by the Chernin Group
He didn’t play in this Week 4’s Millionaire Maker. Maybe he thinks it’s too competitive so instead he played in the Sunday Night Primetime contest — I don’t have data on this one — so watch out if that is your bread and better everyone.
The Herd’s Picks
My favorite section. The herd.
A place where everyone wants to stand out but can’t help themselves from sticking together, like an unfortunate glue. Myself included.
Draft Kings won big this week, as always, taking home a whopping 25% fee of $1,032,410.
Minus the people who forgot to enter a lineup, everything was pretty normal for Draft Kings — and that’s by construction.
This week was more herd-like than usual.
Notice that the longer “bump” around 20%. Dalvin Cook was used in 33% of lineups, Joe Mixon 16%, and the Jaguars with 16%. Recency bias really screwed everyone here with the Jaguars great performance against the Ravens making too big of an impression.
|398||16||Odell Beckham Jr.|
As for QB-WR/TE stacks:
- DeShuan Watson-DeAndre Hopkins 8%
- Eli Manning-OBJ 5%
- Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski 5%
- Trevor Siemian-Emmanuel Sanders 5%
The Best Possible Lineups
Last week, the best possible Sunday lineup was 260.54 points. There were at least 6,182 lineups better than RKennedy’s 230.74!
|8||New Orleans Saints||DST||16.00||2600.0||NO||0|
Here’s the player pool of these winning lineups with utilization.
You could have won $1MM playing Jacoby Brissett against the Seahawks AND STARTING THE SEAHAWKS DEFENSE! Are we all playing this game wrong?
What a troll lineup Jacoby Brissett could have been. Playing Brissett against the Seahawks and starting the Seahawks D to win a Million Dollars by .14 points. Wow. If only someone played this the rotoworld would go carzy.
Oh well. Now for some closing thoughts and on to next week.
Draft Kings Now Players from Search
In the past, Draft Kings would search all players who entered the contest in the standings recap section.
Now it only searches players that show up in the “rank”. For a second there, I thought CONDIA didn’t play last week. Oh was I wrong. Download the CSV or use a site like Rotogrinders to make sure you don’t miss anything
Call For Your Input
I’ve been really happy with the feedback from the reddit community on my recap posts. Thank you all. Now, how many of you would be interested in an interactive website that allows you to do some of the analysis I do every week? Like a more comprehensive version of what Rotogrinders has.
It’s still very early and I can’t promise when I’ll finish it but just wanted to put out feelers. If anyone wants to contribute let me know. I’d probably want to use python+boostrap+d3.js-w/extensions.
Thanks for reading