DraftKings Week 2 Recap
I was planning on doing a Fan Duel recap too this week but Fan Duel doesn’t support CSV export and scraping would be too easy to detect/they would ban me. @Hova222 sorry dude. To show your support for data use Draft Kings. If you’re worried analytic people will take your edge use Fan Duel.
Last week, I wrote about how BearsFan247 won the millionaire maker and looked at famous players like CONDIA. CONDIA didn’t win this week but he took home 3rd place winning a total of $103,765. We’ll take a look at how he constructed his lineups and then move on to other players.
Last time around, we saw that CONDIA used a variety of QB-WR stacks set to around 8% exposure. This week he used less QB-WR stacks but his Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski one hit in a big way!
Here’s a table showing a summary of his lineups’ points. He used a player pool consisting of 127 players.
As for his most utilized players, the highest player exposure he had was 25%
Last week, he had this
|6||22||Todd Gurley II|
Looking at these two tables what do you see?
I see that CONDIA sets his highest percentage plays to more consistent players. RB’s, TE’s, high target WR’s. You don’t see him putting a streaky player like J.J. Nelson in 25% of his lineups, but J.J. was used in 12%… — if you want to learn more about volatility and position groups, I recommend you take a look at Jonathan Bales book Fantasy Football for Smart People: The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS.
I also find it interesting that CONDIA doesn’t settle on one defense but actually uses some of his chances (number of lineups he enters) on over 6 defenses last week. It’s a much less risky approach than I would have thought.
CONDIA’s QB Stacks
CONDIA had less QB-WR stacks but his highest ones we’re:
- Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski at 7%
- Aaron Rodgers-Jordy Nelson at 5%
Overall, CONDIA played a similar strategy to Week 1 and won big this time
If you don’t know who Saahil Sud is read this. He runs his own lineup optimizer site RotoQL and has won a lot of money in DFS. Saahil came close in week 2 but didn’t do well enough to win money in last week’s Millionaire Maker. He entered 150 lineups and came home losing $1,415.
Crazy, how much of a money difference coming close is from winning $100,000 like CONDIA. Now let’s take a look on how he makes his lineups. It’s much riskier than CONDIA.
Saahil has player exposure up into the 40% range! And he uses less chances on defenses versus CONDIA. Still, Saahil doesn’t have too many streaky players on his roster, with Martellus Bennett being the riskiest pick. I’m sitting here wondering if his Julio Jones pick was a deliberate attempt to fade Antonio Brown after his good performance in week 1. I’ll keep track of these as the season goes on.
As for stacks Saahil went heavy on the Packers offense. Personally, I don’t like that decision because Dan Quinn’s Falcons defense is no joke. The dude was an excellent DC for Seattle and is plenty capable of shutting down a 1 dimensional offense. Especially considering the Packers O-Line isn’t that great. But then again, I’m the amateur, Saahil is the pro.
His stacks are below
- Aaron Rodgers-Martellus Bennett 32%
- Aaron Rodgers-Randall Cobb 25%
- Martellus Bennett-Randall Cobb 25% (he was banking on Rodgers have a great day, and Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery not to receive the catches)
- James White- Rob Gronkowski 22%
- Cam Newton – Kelvin Benjamin 24%
- Tom Brady -James White 22% (This surprises be because, typically QB-RB’s have negative correlation unless the QB is mobile like a Russell Wilson or Cam Newton)
- Tom Brady – Rob Gronkowski 22%
- Cam Newton – Kelvin Benjamin 24%
From looking through this, Saahil takes way more risk than CONDIA. His view of DFS seems to center around predicting which team and offensive group will do well (this is how I make my lineups too). In Week 2, Saahil used his lineup optimizer to reflect his belief that either the GB offense or NE offense would go off. And as you’d expect, his player pool is much smaller than CONDIA’s with Saahil using less than half the players, 53 to be exact.
The Winner’s Lineup: timwoodbury10
There’s really not much we can say about the mysterious timwoodbury10. He used a QB-TE stack and a RB in the FLEX spot. He took the chance with a $20 deposit and won big. We’ll keep an eye on him to see if we can determine if this was a fluke or timwoodbury10 has something good cooking.
The Best Possible Lineup
As always, we’ve computed the best possible lineup for the Sunday Millionaire Maker. This week the best possible score was 250.38
And there were at least 499 better lineups than timwoodbury10’s. The player pool for those better lineups is listed below
The best pick of the week looks to be Michael Crabtree. Still, picking between Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper is tough so it’s best to use a lineup optimizer — we have a free lineup optimizer example in python showing how you can use “One of” constraints to guarantee every lineup you generate contains either Crabtree or Cooper.
What the Herd Did
275,753 lineups totaling $5.5 million dollars were entered. Draft Kings made $1,546,860 from hosting the contest. That’s a lot of money…
Ty Montgomery was the most used player with Chris Hogan also receiving a surprising amount of usage
The most common stacks were
- Tom Brady – Chris Hogan 6%
- Aaron Rodgers – Ty Montgomery 6% (Saahil faded this one)
- Tom Brady – Rob Gronkowski 5%
This week, the pro’s fared much better by employing the same strategies as Week 1. Week 2 was much better for QB stacks.
If you want me to take a look at another player or push this analysis further please feel free to leave a comment or contact firstname.lastname@example.org