DraftKings Week 2 Recap

I was planning on doing a Fan Duel recap too this week but Fan Duel doesn’t support CSV export and scraping would be too easy to detect/they would ban me. @Hova222 sorry dude. To show your support for data use Draft Kings. If you’re worried analytic people will take your edge use Fan Duel. 

Last week, I wrote about how BearsFan247 won the millionaire maker and looked at famous players like CONDIA. CONDIA didn’t win this week but he took home 3rd place winning a total of $103,765. We’ll take a look at how he constructed his lineups and then move on to other players.

CONDIA’s Lineups

Last time around, we saw that CONDIA used a variety of QB-WR stacks set to around 8% exposure. This week he used less QB-WR stacks but his Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski one hit in a big way!

Here’s a table showing a summary of his lineups’ points. He used a player pool consisting of 127 players.

Points
count 150.000000
mean 134.528933
std 26.881154
min 77.820000
25% 116.790000
50% 134.770000
75% 153.285000
max 222.480000

As for his most utilized players, the highest player exposure he had was 25%

Percentage Player
0 25 Melvin Gordon
1 24 Ty Montgomery
2 23 Rob Gronkowski
3 19 Larry Fitzgerald
4 18 Coby Fleener
5 18 Aaron Rodgers
6 17 Tom Brady

Last week, he had this

Percentage Player
0 27 Le’Veon Bell
1 26 Zach Ertz
2 26 David Johnson
3 26 Carlos Hyde
4 25 Antonio Brown
5 24 Lamar Miller
6 22 Todd Gurley II
7 20 Steelers
8 18 Rob Kelley
9 17 Ezekiel Elliott
10 17 Larry Fitzgerald
11 17 DeMarco Murray

Looking at these two tables what do you see?

I see that CONDIA sets his highest percentage plays to more consistent players. RB’s, TE’s, high target WR’s. You don’t see him putting a streaky player like J.J. Nelson in 25% of his lineups, but J.J. was used in 12%… — if you want to learn more about volatility and position groups, I recommend you take a look at Jonathan Bales book Fantasy Football for Smart People: The Hidden Psychology of Winning DFS.

I also find it interesting that CONDIA doesn’t settle on one defense but actually uses some of his chances (number of lineups he enters) on over 6 defenses last week. It’s a much less risky approach than I would have thought.

CONDIA’s QB Stacks

CONDIA had less QB-WR stacks but his highest ones we’re:

  • Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski at 7%
  • Aaron Rodgers-Jordy Nelson at 5%

Overall, CONDIA played a similar strategy to Week 1 and won big this time

SaahilSud

If you don’t know who Saahil Sud is read this. He runs his own lineup optimizer site RotoQL and has won a lot of money in DFS. Saahil came close in week 2 but didn’t do well enough to win money in last week’s Millionaire Maker. He entered 150 lineups and came home losing $1,415.

SaahilSud's Lineup Distribution Week 2 2017

Points
count 150.000000
mean 128.886800
std 23.389985
min 78.480000
25% 113.360000
50% 127.800000
75% 145.360000
max 199.180000

Crazy, how much of a money difference coming close is from winning $100,000 like CONDIA. Now let’s take a look on how he makes his lineups. It’s much riskier than CONDIA.

Percentage Player
0 40 Julio Jones
1 40 Kelvin Benjamin
2 39 Ezekiel Elliott
3 38 Martellus Bennett
4 37 Melvin Gordon
5 34 Chargers
6 32 Aaron Rodgers
7 31 Alshon Jeffery
8 31 Buccaneers
9 27 Tyreek Hill

Saahil has player exposure up into the 40% range! And he uses less chances on defenses versus CONDIA. Still, Saahil doesn’t have too many streaky players on his roster, with Martellus Bennett being the riskiest pick. I’m sitting here wondering if his Julio Jones pick was a deliberate attempt to fade Antonio Brown after his good performance in week 1. I’ll keep track of these as the season goes on.

As for stacks Saahil went heavy on the Packers offense. Personally, I don’t like that decision because Dan Quinn’s Falcons defense is no joke. The dude was an excellent DC for Seattle and is plenty capable of shutting down a 1 dimensional offense. Especially considering the Packers O-Line isn’t that great. But then again, I’m the amateur, Saahil is the pro.

CheapFlightNow's Exclusive Roundtrip Flights Sale. Book now and get up to $15 Off* with coupon code CFNAIR15.

His stacks are below

  • Aaron Rodgers-Martellus Bennett 32%
  • Aaron Rodgers-Randall Cobb 25%
  • Martellus Bennett-Randall Cobb 25% (he was banking on Rodgers have a great day, and Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery not to receive the catches)
  • James White- Rob Gronkowski 22%
  • Cam Newton – Kelvin Benjamin 24%
  • Tom Brady -James White 22(This surprises be because, typically QB-RB’s have negative correlation unless the QB is mobile like a Russell Wilson or Cam Newton)
  • Tom Brady – Rob Gronkowski 22%
  • Cam Newton – Kelvin Benjamin 24%

From looking through this, Saahil takes way more risk than CONDIA. His view of DFS seems to center around predicting which team and offensive group will do well (this is how I make my lineups too). In Week 2, Saahil used his lineup optimizer to reflect his belief that either the GB offense or NE offense would go off. And as you’d expect, his player pool is much smaller than CONDIA’s with Saahil using less than half the players, 53 to be exact.

The Winner’s Lineup: timwoodbury10

There’s really not much we can say about the mysterious timwoodbury10. He used a QB-TE stack and a RB in the FLEX spot. He took the chance with a $20 deposit and won big. We’ll keep an eye on him to see if we can determine if this was a fluke or timwoodbury10 has something good cooking.

The Best Possible Lineup

As always, we’ve computed the best possible lineup for the Sunday Millionaire Maker. This week the best possible score was 250.38

player_name position score salary team_name
0 Michael Crabtree WR 32.00 7100.0 OAK
1 Jason Witten TE 25.70 3400.0 DAL
2 J.J. Nelson WR 26.00 3800.0 ARI
3 Tampa Bay DST 19.00 3200.0 TB
4 Ty Montgomery RB 29.00 5800.0 GB
5 Emmanuel Sanders WR 24.20 5200.0 DEN
6 Tom Brady QB 33.78 7900.0 NE
7 Travis Kelce FLEX 27.30 5100.0 KC
8 C.J. Anderson RB 33.40 4700.0 DEN

And there were at least 499 better lineups than timwoodbury10’s. The player pool for those better lineups is listed below

Best Lineups Draft Kings Week 2

The best pick of the week looks to be Michael Crabtree. Still, picking between Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper is tough so it’s best to use a lineup optimizer — we have a free lineup optimizer example in python showing how you can use “One of” constraints to guarantee every lineup you generate contains either Crabtree or Cooper.

What the Herd Did

275,753 lineups totaling $5.5 million dollars were entered. Draft Kings made $1,546,860 from hosting the contest. That’s a lot of money…

Everyone's Lineup Point Totals

Points
count 275753.000000
mean 128.622339
std 23.433775
min 0.000000
25% 112.700000
50% 128.420000
75% 144.500000
max 229.080000

Ty Montgomery was the most used player with Chris Hogan also receiving a surprising amount of usage

Percentage Player
0 37 Ty Montgomery
1 25 Tyreek Hill
2 21 Julio Jones
3 20 Keenan Allen
4 20 Coby Fleener
5 19 Kareem Hunt
6 19 Chris Hogan

The most common stacks were

  • Tom Brady – Chris Hogan 6%
  • Aaron Rodgers – Ty Montgomery 6% (Saahil faded this one)
  • Tom Brady – Rob Gronkowski 5%

Closing Thoughts

This week, the pro’s fared much better by employing the same strategies as Week 1. Week 2 was much better for QB stacks.

Please consider subscribing to our mailing list or following us on Facebook or Twitter so we can let you know when next week’s recap is ready.

If you want me to take a look at another player or push this analysis further please feel free to leave a comment or contact matteo@sportsdatadirect.com

That’s all for this week!

 

Mobile Apps Category (English)468x60

Matteo Hoch

Matteo Hoch is the founder of Sports Data Direct and maintains a personal blog called Ergo Sum where he writes about data visualization and coding. You can generally find him in the DraftKings Sunday $3 early only contests under username mhoch2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *