DraftKings Week 1 Recap
Every week Draft Kings pays out big prizes to winners of their contests. Most sites focus on what people did, and pick apart the best lineup. I’m not going to do much of that here. Instead I’ll show you what we’re the best lineups possible and analyze how famous players like CONDIA and CSURAM88 constructed their lineups.
Most surprisingly, they don’t use “locks” and employed far less stacks then I’d expect.
Obligatory who won section
For this week it was Bearsfan247 topping out at 198.88 points.
He won the million dollar jackpot and yes we’re all jealous.
How Bearsfan247 Constructed his Lineups
Many top players use lineup optimizers to construct their lineups. They use constraints, look for QB-WR stacks, and limit exposure to players. Looking at Bearsfan247 we see that he entered 22 lineups.
Appallingly, he had the Bears in 36% of his lineups. I’m a Bears fan too but man that’s ridiculous. Thankfully Tarik Cohen saved his day.
|0||40||Todd Gurley II|
As for as his stacks, there really weren’t any.
|0||22||Bears , Todd Gurley II|
|1||18||Todd Gurley II, Zach Ertz|
|2||18||Antonio Brown, Christian McCaffrey|
|3||18||DeMarco Murray, Russell Wilson|
|4||13||Antonio Brown, Todd Gurley II|
|5||13||Antonio Brown, Bears|
|6||13||Carson Wentz, Todd Gurley II|
|7||13||Antonio Brown, Carson Wentz|
I’m going to go out and say it. Even a blind squirrel get’s a nut every once in a while. He may have used a lineup generator grabbing the max expected value players. I’d be very surprised if he wins again.
His lineups don’t look to follow any deliberate pattern or anything. But anyways, well done Bearsfan247. Hopefully you don’t blow your money trying to win another jackpot
CSURAM88 entered 150 lineups in the contest!
Unfortunately, CSURAM’s we’re much more “normal” then you’d want in a large tourney.
He limited his individual player exposure to ~25%. Betting on players like Christian MCCaffrey and Sterling Shepard to have great days. Personally, I think he bought too much into the offseason hype and overlooked a not bad 49er’s defense at home, and a bad offense in the New York Giants. But hey, he’s the winner and not me.
From looking at these lineups, I’d wager he used some sort of max expected value optimizer with player exposure limits, never face your own defense, and a variety of different stacks at the ~8% range.
- Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham 8%
- Ben Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown 8%
- Derek Carr-Michael Crabtree 8%
- Marcus Mariota-Rishard Matthews 9%
He was really hoping one of those stacks would have a monster day but it just didn’t happen this week. In week 2, QB’s should fare much better.
Overall, CSURAM88 wagered $3,000 and lost $1,855 in this contest. Not terrible and he will live to win again.
Like CSURAM88, CONDIA entered 150 lineups. He spent $3,000 and lost $2050. Topping out at 163.58
His point totals were comparable to CSURAM’s in terms of mean and standard deviation.
He had even less QB-WR stacks the CSURAM with his highest percentage stack at 6% for Matthew Stafford-Marvin Jones Jr.
In terms of individual player exposure, CONDIA capped out at 27%.
|6||22||Todd Gurley II|
He used a player pool of 97 players, which leads me to believe he is using some form of lineup optimizer, probably by expected value.
Looking back at the Best Possible Lineups
Using the score totals of last week games we can look at the best possible lineups. The highest score possible was 229.98 points.
There were at least 956 better lineups than Bearsfan247 and they would have used
Note the locks for Tarik Cohen and Leonard Fournette. As far as QB-WR stacks go, this week that wasn’t a good pick. Unless you had the Thursday slate. That’s not to say stacks are bad but when they miss they miss, and likewise when they hit, they hit.
This week QB-WR’s didn’t do well together and chances taken on individual players/defenses were better risk reward ratio.
The Herd Picks
No huge stacks this week that I could find.
|1||33||Todd Gurley II|
|13||13||Terrelle Pryor Sr.|
Zach Ertz had a surprisingly high utilization, at least I thought so. People really loved Christian McCaffrey this week against a tough matchup. Yes, the 49er’s aren’t terrible at D.
I couldn’t find many big stacks besides Todd Gurley and the Rams D at below 10%.
I think it’s important to pay attention to what the best lineups were rather than study what people did. A lot of players in the best lineups weren’t used at all by the winners. Leonard Fournette had a great day and most people didn’t take a chance on him. 1% utilization. Tarik Cohen was used only by 413 lineups! Or just 0.15%. I’d expect that to change next week.
And sometime this season, the traditional stacks will hit.